Course Keys

It’s a new venue this year for the not-baked Isco, and it’s certainly a change of pace from Keene Trace. Hurstbourne plays just a hair over 7,000 yards, and the only thing artificially holding back scoring will be the Par 70. So, what should we expect from the new host?

There are a lot of doglegs and corner bunkers here, and the question is how many of those can be carried. Obviously, the more that can be carried, the better for long and accurate drivers. From the looks of things, a solid number should be attackable. There are a few where the trees are likely too tall, but as I’ve dug in more, I think long and accurate drivers are going to have unlimited wedges on Par 4s and can attack easily reachable Par 5s. That said, the course is so short that even short but accurate drivers are still going to have plenty of chances to attack. But I do see a path to a big head start for elite OTT play that would be a cheat code if combined with elite birdie or better wedge conversions.

Now, with that in mind, the most likely differentiators probably remain with the iron play and putting. There are simply too many clean iron looks this week across the field for proximity and birdie-or-better conversion not to be decisive. I don’t think there’s going to end up being much separation between elite drivers who are average with their irons and putter, and accurate drivers who spike in those areas. The not-rocket-science take is this: be elite OTT and convert with wedges, and you could run away with it. Not many players in the field fit that mold, though, which opens up plenty of paths. Additionally, ARG appears pretty straightforward and shouldn’t be much of a factor.

So, that gives us a variety of profiles that theoretically should work—but it must be said, there aren’t many strong profiles in the field this week. It remains an ALT event, and we know the most important key for ALT events: vibes. From a vibes perspective, I think the angle is players with PGA Tour experience under their belts. We tend to see guys who have been around the block rise to the top in fields like this, and broadly speaking, the DPWT players in the field are simply filling out the numbers. Ideally, we’d target PGA Tour experience a bit further down the board and build from there.

Outright Selections

Will count towards PGA year tracking.

Adam (1pt to win +11.8 points)

Carson Young +5000

Had the lead a few weeks ago in Myrtle Beach which is a pretty reasonable comp set up this week, and comes in fresh off another strong result at the JDC. Will live in the fairway and provides spike upside with the iron play and flatstick. Knocking on the door and a great week to breakthrough.

Luke List +7500

List has been in the iron play abyss for quite some time but things have been trending in the right direction over the last few months. Still work to be done but he will have a distinct OTT advantage here and he’s gained on the greens in four of his last seven starts. Solid win equity at this price.

Justin Lower +8000

Fired a great opening round at the JDC before tailing off the rest of the week, however this is a solid price on a guy who has mixed heavily in weak field events over the last couple of years. I have never totally settled on what he is actually good at but he’s balanced and capable of the low scoring needed here.

Adam Hadwin +8000

Super volatile player but elite scoring ability when he is in the fairway, which shouldn’t be too difficult to accomplish this week. Serious spike upside with both the iron play and putter when he’s got clean looks, and happy to see if these conditions do play into his strengths at 80/1 against such a weak field.

Will Gordon +9000

One of the worst ARG players on Tour but that isn’t going to be too much of a problem this week, and when Willy G gets to venues where that is the case he has the upside to contend across the rest of the bag. T5 a couple of months ago at the Byron and T7 back at Torrey is the kind of spike upside down the board I’m interested in here.

Callum Tarren +20000

Callum has been plying his craft across the P this year, and has gotten into the mix a few times including a T5 just a few weeks ago in Austria. He’s flashed in the midwest previously during his Tour days and I’ll take a swing well down the board on a guy with elite upside OTT, and on the greens, against a field like this.

Miles Russell +20000

Future star, and a carbon copy of Akshay’s game. Absolutely mints the ball, and a shorter venue this week will allow him to display his elite ball striking skill set. Buying low on a week where he might end up having the best career of anyone in the field.

Matt (1pt to win +9.8 points)

When handicapping a 7,000-yard Par 70, my mind immediately jumps to Waiʻalae Country Club. Add in early word from the ground that conditions will be soft—and we’ve got the makings of a birdie fest. Think wedge-heavy, putting contest. This will come down to who can dial in short irons and convert from 15 feet and in. 

Patrick Fishburn +3700

Fish is the definition of streaky, but the recent signs are encouraging. He flashed at John Deere and nearly stole the Sony earlier this year. He’s popped multiple times on short courses and could absolutely surf a heater into Sunday contention here.

Carson Young +5000

Textbook short-course specialist. Accurate off the tee, sharp with the mid-irons, and gets nuclear with the putter. The comps are strong and he’s flirted with the lead on this kind of layout multiple times.

Jackson Suber +7500

Suber has shown real growth in 2025, highlighted by strong performances at the Sony and AMEX—both solid comps. He’s finally finding his footing on Tour and feels like a live longshot to backdoor a final group appearance.

Adam Hadwin +8000

Does Hadwin have another run in him? If so, this is the type of setup where it happens. His profile fits soft conditions and wedge-heavy scoring. He still flashes in strong fields and 80/1 is a misprice for a proven Tour winner.

Ben Kohles +9000

Kohles thrives in these conditions—low-pressure setups where it’s birdie or bust. If he’s clicking, he can string together 6+ birdies in a round and stay aggressive throughout. Love him on easy courses with tight dispersion demands.

Kevin Velo +20000

"Bikes" is gaining comfort on the PGA Tour and has posted a few high-end rounds this year. While the ceiling is unknown, he’s accurate and confident—and that combo can go a long way in a soft-field birdie fest. Worth a dart at 200/1.

Miles Russell +20000

The great unknown. Russell’s junior resume puts him in rare company—names like Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas. He’s wildly mature for 16 and already elite with a wedge in hand. If a kid is going to make history and win this young, this is the kind of soft, gettable course where it could happen.

Vincent (1pt to win +11.1 points)

Emiliano Grillo +1800

Grillo stands out as the clear favorite with elite approach play (1st) and solid driving (11th) complemented by strong putting (14th). His well-rounded game perfectly matches what Hurstbourne demands, and his extensive PGA Tour experience gives him the veteran savvy that typically rises to the top in alternate events. At 18/1, he offers excellent value for the best statistical profile in the field.

Chandler Phillips +5500

Outstanding approach play (14th) and strong putting (32nd) - exactly the precision skills needed when clean iron looks become decisive at Hurstbourne.

Lanto Griffin +8000

Griffin offers solid driving (37th) and elite approach play (19th), giving him the ball-striking foundation to exploit Hurstbourne's short layout. His iron precision should create numerous scoring opportunities from wedge range, and he brings the experience that typically rises above in alternate events.