Course Keys

We finally return to Chapultepec—a venue that served as an excellent host for four years on the WGC calendar. And thanks to that stretch, we actually have a rare asset: solid data on a LIV course.

What does that data tell us? It’s not rocket science this week—you better be able to roll your rock. Just look at the winners from the final three years here:

• Reed: +12 SG Putting

• DJ: +8.4 SG Putting

• Phil: +7.6 SG Putting

The course plays at extreme elevation and isn’t long on the card, which theoretically makes anyone capable of joining the putting contest which largely holds true. However, there was a growing distance bias as players evolved their strategies for this quirky layout. That trend was especially apparent in 2019, when DJ and Rory simply overpowered the course off the tee. Still, DJ also gained +8.4 strokes with the putter that week, showing how much of the work can be done on the greens.

So while the tournament is very likely to be decided on the greens, pairing elite putting with strong OTT play puts you in position A this week.

Outright Bets

Adam’s Selections (-5 YTD, to win +9.4 points)

Brooks Koepka +2200

Sticking to our guns of betting Brooks over +2000 every LIV event this year. A week like this is one where it seems easy to jump off and then he wins by four. Trusting the process.

Lucas Herbert +3500

Few players in the field have more upside with the flatstick and we get the strong driving we are after this week as well. Already has pocketed a couple 4th place finishes on LIV this year, and this is probably the best course fit for him yet.

Phil Mickelson +8000

The flatstick has come alive for Phil and now he comes to a spot where he has loved the greens in his career. Won here in 2018 and I don’t expect his increasing confidence to be dinged after the Masters MC. Still is hungry for that first LIV win and the price is fair considering the form plus course history.

Adrian Meronk +8000

Too long of a price on a winner already this year who fits the Driver/Putter profile that has flourished here. Hasn’t played well since that victory but has the ability to win in any form at venues that don’t overly stress his iron play like this one.

Matt’s Selections (+3.3 YTD, to win +6.25 points)

Jon Rahm +625

Below 7/1 has us returning less than we do on a normal week but for tracking purposes… I have been greater than 7x in 3 of 5 weeks so this brings us to right around on pace through six events.

Rahm looked sharp at Augusta after a sluggish Thursday, and he continues to lead LIV in birdies while ranking 3rd in greens in regulation. According to his DataGolf strokes gained profile, he’s gaining most off the tee — a crucial piece of the puzzle this week. If you can consistently find fairways with Rahm-level distance and then pair that with elite iron play, you're in contention.

More than anything, Rahm feels due. He’s trending upward, and with major season here, his focus should be dialed in. I’m rolling with Rahm as a single bullet this week — a great setup for him to break through.

Vincent’s Selections (-5 YTD, to win +10.4 points)

Carlos Ortiz +2500

Ortiz brings elite putting skills that perfectly match Chapultepec's demands. His prowess on the greens mirrors what previous winners needed here. The extreme elevation allows his modest driving to remain competitive while spotlighting his primary strength. His familiarity with the courses in the region adds another edge, and his overall form suggests he has the profile to outperform these odds significantly.

David Puig +2800

Puig's game is tailor-made for Chapultepec with exceptional driving distance and strong putting - the exact combination that powered DJ's success here. His length off the tee creates scoring opportunities that his solid putting can convert, creating the perfect blend for this unique course. His aggressive style should thrive where the risk-reward equation shifts to favor power players, making him a standout value at these odds.

Charl Schwartzel +6500

Schwartzel offers tremendous longshot value with the field's leading putter, the primary skill for Chapultepec success. While not the longest, history proves elite putting can overcome distance disadvantages here, as Mickelson demonstrated. His precision and course management compensate for any length limitations, and his experience with playing at elevation bolsters his case. At these odds, his putting prowess alone warrants strong consideration.