Course Keys

We’ve got an interesting one on LIV this week at a venue that hosted the Team Championship last year. Maridoe, on paper, is a brute of a golf course — quite different from most of the easy, straightforward LIV venues. It can tip out at 7,800 yards and features lightning-fast Bermuda greens.

However, in that team event last year, we saw it play much more like a putting contest. That doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance, but piecing together the info we have helps clear things up. Last year, the course was specifically set up for match play and risk/reward; the rough was cut down and some tees were moved up. From the reports so far, that won’t be the case this week. The rough is much more penal, and this should look more like what we’d expect from Maridoe on paper: a distance-biased, full examination across the bag.

The greens will still be a major challenge, and the putter — especially Bermuda proficiency — will remain important, but not quite to the extent we saw last year. All in all, balance might be the name of the game here.

The closest LIV comp to this setup is definitely Miami, and that seems like the clear reference point this week. Scoring should be a bit easier than Miami or Oakmont, but we can feel good about players who performed well at the U.S. Open carrying form into this event as well.

In the tough conditions in Miami, we saw one of the few mid-price winners this season (Leishman), which is a bit of an outlier, but maybe that gives some hope that the field can overcome the powerful ball-striking trio at the top of the board.

Outright Selections

Vincent’s Selections (+0.5 YTD, to win +8.0 points)

Joaquin Niemann +800

Niemann brings the perfect combination for Maridoe with elite approach play (1st) and solid driving (6th) complemented by strong putting (12th). His well-rounded skill set should thrive on a course demanding a full examination across the bag. The Chilean’s statistical profile once again suggests he should be priced shorter than this.

Matt’s Selections (+0.3 YTD, to win +8.8 points)

I’ll be placing heavy emphasis on off-the-tee performance: players who combine distance and accuracy. With tough driving conditions and elevated scoring averages, around-the-green game becomes a key secondary stat. As I write this, I haven’t finalized my card, but I’m tempted to go back to the Rahm well. He feels due and I expect a win from him in one of the next three events.

Only three players rank inside the top 15 in both driving distance and accuracy in LIV: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Bubba Watson.

Looking deeper into the approach and short game metrics: Rahm ranks 1st in Greens in Regulation and 4th in Scrambling. Bryson comes in 8th in GIR but leads the field in Scrambling. It feels like we’re headed for a heavyweight battle between these two.

Still, I’ve played the Rahm single bullet often this season, and the exposure is adding up. Given the course volatility and previous team event chaos, I’m opting for a more diversified card—players with all-around games who can score in different ways.

Patrick Reed +2200

23rd in GIR, 6th in Scrambling, and lives in Dallas. Reed thrives on tougher setups and brings a creative game that should play well here.

Sebastian Munoz +2850

Would’ve been a live contender at Oakmont. He’s 2nd in Driving Accuracy, 6th in GIR, and another Dallas local.

Paul Casey +6000

Quietly 6th in both Driving Accuracy and GIR. If the putter cooperates, he can contend.

Brendan Steele +12500

Top 10 in both Accuracy (9th) and GIR (5th). A longshot worth considering at this price.

Adam’s Selections (-8 YTD, to win +13.2 points)

Brooks Koepka +2800

My LIV season will be defined by the weekly Brooks bet. Not looking good right now, but I’ll ride it through to the finish. Based on his quotes at Oakmont, there are at least some signs of life.

Thomas Pieters +5000

The least serious LIV player has finally started to resemble his old self in recent events. At his best, this is a great course fit for his powerful, balanced game. I’ll give him a shot to keep it rolling here.

Paul Casey +6000

It’s taken him a while to bounce back from the meltdown in Hong Kong, but the recent stats are more encouraging. This setup suits his game nicely, and the price is fair to see if the positive trends can lead to a spike.