Course Notes

2025 LPGA Tournament of Champions

January 30 - February 2, 2025

Like we finished last season, we start off the 2025 LPGA season back in Florida. For the 4th year in a row, we kick off this limited field event at Lake Nona near Orlando. The 80s Fazio design is set to play as a 4-10-4 par 72, The LPGA website indicates that the event will be played at 6600 yards. 6600 yards at sea-level is no joke. At first blush, one might think that when you couple the length along with the typical January cold-ish weather and soft fairways, distance would be a pre-requisite. But I re-watched the telecast from last year, and it seems that 6600 yards is calculated with the thumb on the scale. Historically, this event has been played from the White tees and should play at 6300 yards. This makes a lot more sense with the profile of success here. We've seen bombers like Nelly win here in 2021 (when it was a full field event). Long hitters like Charley Hull, Yuka Saso, and Alexa Pano have also been heavily in the mix here. But we've also seen shorter players, like Lydia (2024 winner) and Brooke (2023 winner) have consistent success. There is some trouble off the tee, but the fairways are pretty generous, so unless the wind really kicks up, which doesn't seem to be the case, I don't think the water is really in play. You can basically miss left all day here until you get midway through the back 9.

It's sort of interesting because with the course playing shorter, it certainly increases the numbers of player who can win, but I think that there is a benefit to being longer off the tee (beyond the obvious fact that you have a shorter distance in). Lake Nona features slopey and undulating fairways, but re-watching the telecast and looking at the flyovers, if you can smash driver down there, your ball will end up in flatter areas. What would you rather hit into the - green a wedge off a flat lie or a hanging lie 8 iron? I really do think the ability to attack the greens from uneven lies is a crucial skill this week.

The greens, which are a mix of poa and Bermuda, are pretty big, pretty pacey, and feature some typical big Fazio slopes, but also have some subtlety around the pin locations.  Spiking with your putting will work anywhere, but I think it'll be difficult to get a ton of really close birdie looks, and you can win this event by limiting mistakes and avoiding bogeys. I expect the winning score to be in that 13 to 17 under range.

In terms of course comps, I think you can look to Shadow Creek and Evian Resort. I think you also want to be looking at general Florida success (CME, Pelican, Drive On, here) and success at the Scottish links.

All this to say, I think you want a player who can gain T2G, and if you aren't going to do it with your driver, you need to be able to hit precise shots from challenging lies. Trackman golfers need not apply. If the weather kicks up, I might put a bit more weight around the greens. I'm taking a stance that you can putt average and win this event (which Nelly will probably do).

In terms of a winning profile, the data is shaky and you have to squint a bit, but the strongest metric here is SG: Approach, more so than other weeks. This isn’t a birdie-fest, and you definitely don’t need a hot putter to win. But like I said earlier, there are many ways to get it done here. 

FYI - the tournament will have Golf Channel coverage from 11:30 PM - 2:30 PM EST on Thurs/Fri, 2-3 PM Peacock/3-5 PM NBC Saturday, 11-12PM Peacock/12-2 PM NBC Sunday.

Early Leans

I wanted to get this up early as the LPGA can see odds move DRASTICALLY early in the week. The early odds dropped and as it currently stands, they are unbettable, but I have hope that some other books will give us something. In the meantime, I figure I would touch on a couple players and my initial thoughts.

Nelly - This is absolutely a Nelly course and a Nelly week. She loves Florida. She loves Fazio designs. She loves winning in the mid-teens. Her course history is great with a 16, 4, 4, and 1 in her 4 starts. Absolutely unbettable price at +333. If she was +600, we could maybe have a discussion, but no thanks. If you do want to bet Nelly, I would leave some room on the card and wait until the event kicks off, she almost always drifts mid-tournament. She was in the final group for both rounds at Pelican and her live number drifted to +1100 a couple of times. Something to monitor

Lydia - The only person who might like Florida golf more than Nelly is Lydia. She's not only the defending champion, but has a course history of 1, 10, 2. She also ripped off a face-melting final round performance at CME where she shot the course record. Again, unbettable price of +550. Maybe it drifts and if we get to +800, I would consider a single bullet on her.

Brooke Henderson - great course form, great Florida form, decent number at +1600. I think she's probably going to be the most bet player this week, so even though there is no "Chart" for the LPGA, it's setting off my spidey senses and is a no go. 

EDIT: since writing this, Brooke’s been bet down to +1200 on b365

Rio Takeda - I was really hoping that the Japanese star in the making would be in the low 20s, but the books, or at least b365 is giving her the respect she deserves at +1100. She is a bomber and ballstriking machine. Won the LPGA co-sanctioned event in Japan (which was a community win!) and won like 7 times on the JLPGA last year. She is going to feast on the more challenging courses. As a quick heads up, her putting stroke not only looks awful, but produces awful results. If she's in the lead, watching her putt will take years off your life. Just have to white-knuckle it. For what it's worth, i'm going to be taking a long position on Takeda placement markets. Any chance you can bet her at +250 for a t5, take it.

Linn Grant - Bomber, should be the best player in the world. Was heavily in the mix at Pelican late last year, has an 11th here. As I type this, I'm thinking +2000 is actually kinda fair...

Yuka Saso - Wayyy too talented for the 2-time US Open winner to only have 2 wins. She has Lake Nona success with two 6th place finishes here. Definitely has the guts to win and does like to do it on more challenging courses. +8000 seems decent, could get there.

Patty T - Evian success, Florida success, bomber. She can shoot 65 or 75. At 80-1, I'm down for Patty as my first click.

Bailey Tardy - won at Blue Bay last year. Pure ball-striker, can't putt. Has Florida success and played well at Pelican with an 8th place finish. Second click at +12500.

Alexa Pano - I would be disloyal to the brand if I didn't give a Pano update. It seems that she is GRINDING this January. She was playing a legit mini-tour event in January in cold, rainy conditions. It was a mixed event and she showed some fight, not only in playing, but finishing 5th. She also finished 2nd here last year, losing by 2 to Lydia. She had the lead for 35 holes at Pelican last November. She loves this style of golf that emphasizes T2G play without being a a birdie fest. At +12500 why wouldn't I be there? Well I saw she had posted to Instagram that she was working on changing her wrist angles in the backswing and trying to get more laid off at the top. This isn't a golf swing theory article (although if anyone wants to go down that rabbit hole, shoot me a DM) but changing wrist angles is probably the most difficult change to make IMO. Undergoing swing changes and needing to beat some serious dogs? I'll save my donations for later in the year.

EDIT: has since been bet down to +8000

Betting Card

I hemmed and hawed, but ultimately, Nelly and Lydia scare me too much here. I would be forcing my hand if I filled out a 8x card to try to take them down. So I’m going light with the card and if there is an opportunity to pounce live, I’ll take it and will let everyone know in the Discord. Current multiple is 30x.

Patty T +8000 (available on FD)

Yuka Saso +8000 (available on FD)

Bailey Tardy +12500 (I clicked this number too early on b365 because there is a 150 available on FD)