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T Mobile Match Play at Shadow Creek

April 2-6

Las Vegas, NV

The short week has me a bit pressed for time and the short write-up isn't indicative of my lack of interest in this event. Make no mistake, this is one of the events of the year at a really fun match play course in Shadow Creek.

Shadow is a Par 72, Fazio design that features what you'd expect of Faz. We'll see wide, undulating fairways with very little rough off the fairway. If you do miss off the tee, water is in play on about half of the holes. The bent-grass greens are some of the quickest we see all year, and have typical Fazio sections with significant undulations. Despite it being match play, I think you'll need T2G chops and the ability to play off uneven lies in the fairway.

Last year, the format changed to 3 days of stroke play, with the top 8 qualifying for the match play portion. This year we move back to the group format, with the highest finisher in each group making the round of 16 knockout stages.

We've seen a number of different playing styles win here with ball strikers like Ally Ewing and Pajaree Anannarukarn winning in 2021 and 2023, respectively. 2022 featured a surprise winner in Eun Jee Im, whereas last year had the best player in the world win in Nelly Korda. Given the unpredictable nature of match play, I looked to target ball-strikers who can play in difficult conditions or uneven lies

I think there are good iron comp courses in Lake Nona and Evian. In terms of comp courses for putting, I looked at Blythfield and Liberty National, which also have fast bent greens.

I also considered high ball hitters who will have an advantage to get the ball to stop on these firm, sectioned off greens. It's supposed to be windy on Wednesday and Friday, but be relatively calm for the other days.

Worth noting that the bottom side of the draw - where Jeeno and Lydia look to have more depth than the top side - where Nelly is.

Player Notes

Jeeno +900 - Probably has the weakest group and should make it out of the group stages. But she's in the deeper side of the bracket and at this price, I'll stay away. Her game is a great fit for this course though.

Nelly +1100 - Defending champion, but coming into the event with some sketchy form. She was the betting favourite mid-way through Saturday last week at the Ford and seemed totally disinterested in being there. She then proceeded to eject for no apparent reason and finished t22. She's in the weaker side of the bracket, but I think there's a decent chance she loses to Jutanagarn or Kupcho and doesn't make it out of the group stages.

Lydia +1400 - Not the strongest group, but does have to go up against perennial Solheim Cupper Carlota Ciganda. Price is a bit short for me, but if you are looking for great putters, could stop right here.

Ayaka Furue +1600 - Really considered Ayaka here. She's a great putter and has two runner-up finishes at Shadow Creek. She's in the easy side of the draw and should waltz into the knockout stages. She can putt great anywhere and has had great iron weeks at Evian and Lake Nona. If I wasn't peppering some names down the board and had to go single bullet for the week, it would be with Ayaka.

Charley Hull +1600 - Has the vibe for Vegas and the game for the course. She has a great Solheim Cup record, but that's mostly bolstered by her foursome/fourball performance and has been 3-3-1 in singles. I'm generally worried that Charley has a bit of a winning problem.

Angel Yin +2500 - High ball flight, bomber, great putter. Was 2nd in the qualifying stages last year, and lost to Nelly. Made it out of the group stages in 2023. She's probably the last one off the card.

Leona Maguire +6000 - Actually, Leona is the last one off the card. She's a match play assassin, has played well at Lake Nona and putts fast greens really well. Was the runner up and stroke play medalist here last year. If she wasn't in the group of death with Jin Young Ko and Brooke, I would absolutely be running her out. Vegas local who will have no issue with elevation.

Betting Card

My strategy was to pick someone from every quarter of the bracket and take it lighter with a 15x card and will re-evaluate after the group stages are done. Any additional plays, I’ll add to the Discord.

Sei Young Kim +3500 (b365) - She won the Lorena Ochoa Match Play event back in 2017 and was knocked out in the semis here last year by Leona. She continues to manage her game well, but the putter is a bit of a problem. Always a scary thing to type out in a match play event, but I'm hoping that her familiarity with these greens is enough to get her out of the group stages. If she does get out, she'll have one of the easier draws in front of her.

Patty T +5000 (FD) - Nice course comp with her Evian and Lake Nona success. Her T2G game remains solid, but the putter is hot and cold. Having said that, when she gets into the mix, she definitely has guts to go and win. I did see an Instagram video where she was boozing though, so hopefully she stays out of the bars tonight and isn't hungover for her match on Wednesday.

Pajaree Anannarukarn +12000 (b365) - Former winner here in 2023. She's been lethal with her irons, leading the field at Lake Nona in Approach. The putter hasn't been great, but at the price, I'll take the chance that she can be comfortable on these surfaces. Has also shown the ability to play well in the wind with a t10 at St. Andrews last year. 

Yuka Saso +12000 (FD) - solid course history, finishing t8 in the qualifying rounds last year before losing out in the playoff. Her game really does check all the boxes here. High ball hitting bomber. Putts fast greens well. She has no issue with making birdies in bunches. The main issue with Yuka is that she makes too many bogeys/others that kill her in stroke play. If she gets out of the group stages and Nelly gets knocked out, she has a really great draw in front of her.