Lotte Championship

October 1-4, 2025

Hoakalei Country Club

Oahu, Hawaii

Bit of an unfinished business this week as last time out we had Nasa Hataoka 1 back of the lead (and the live fav, but who’s counting) before the rain in Arkansas cancelled the event. At least all of our money was returned and couldn’t call it a losing week?

This week we move to the Pacific, with an early start in Hawaii, before heading over to Asia for 4 weeks. I think the Asia fall swing is kind of like a condensed version of the PGA Tour’s Signature Events and has great fields and coverage, so while we have that to look forward to, let’s kick things off with a good week here.

Hoakalei CC in Oahu is an Ernie Els designed par 72 that’ll play around 6500 yards or medium length. The tee shots are pretty forgiving, and the rough shouldn’t be an issue, but there is water in play on about half the tee shots. The paspalum greens are usually pretty slow and straightforward. On it’s face, you could say that it’s a total driving competition with a lean to distance, but I think things could play out a little differently this week. Oahu has had one of the driest summers in 25 years, and if the course is even half as baked out as Kapalua (RIP Sentry) - the fairways will be really bouncy and you’ll see shorter players able to hit running bullets out there. The wind will be up in the 15-20 mph range, so I think you’ll want proper links iron players.

Firm fairways, slow greens, and strong winds makes the Open comparison on the nose. But if you look at it, I actually think the obvious explanation is the right one. Last year, A Lim Kim won at 18 under, she then went on to play in the final group of the Women’s Open at Royal Porthcawl. I think the Porthcawl comparison actually plays on a few angles. That course played like Muirfield where Ernie Els won an Open and has said it inspired his design strategy. I think that’s in play here given that the fairway and greenside bunkers are actually quite penal. I think that gives us comps at the 2022 and 2025 Women’s Open. I also think you can look at Dundonald Links in Scotland and Blue Bay in China - two lengthy quasi links on slow greens. I think the winning score will be in the high teens.

Ultimately, I really think the winner comes from the group of Yamashita (winner at the Women’s Open and has a handful of top tens in the last 2 months), Takeda (sniffed the weekend lead at the Open and winner at Blue Bay) and Nasa Hataoka (live fav at Arkansas, great recent form, and a form player). It’s too expensive to bet on all 3, but I’m going to pick one and leave some room for live adds, which as always, will be in the Discord.

Outright Card -

Nasa Hataoka +1600 - Was live fav in Arkansas, 5th at Kroger, and 7th in Boston - it’s a steep number, but she finished 4th here last year and can make birdies in bunches. Also, has not yet won this year.

Auston Kim +9000 - A top 10 total driver and top 5 in driving distance. She finished 3rd here last year, which would make this number good enough on it’s own, but also has a 2nd at the difficult and windy KPMG and a final group appearance at Blue Bay. The number is too high for this spike player.