Course Preview

Chevron Championship

April 24-27

Carlton Woods – Nicklaus Course

Woodlands, Texas

Preview

The first Major of the year is back at Carlton Woods for the third straight year. I’m starting to get over this tournament’s departure from the Californian desert and since the event is here for the foreseeable future, I’m ready to accept Houston into my life. The course is not that visually interesting or enticing, but I’m trying to look at the bright side. The 6900 yard par 72 will feature a standard Nicklaus 4-10-4 setup. It’s the longest course on tour and is a true T2G test with a major portion of that coming from total driving performance. The Bermuda fairways are incredibly lush and are about 30 yards wide. The main penalty off the tee is water, which is in play on about half the tee shots. Distance is absolutely at a premium, but you really can’t afford to be loose off the tee. Good total drivers with a significant lean towards distance is crucial. It seems that there has been some rain over the past week, so we might see a little wrinkle where carry distance is rewarded over drivers that might otherwise hit and run.

The fairways are incredibly flat and give you the chance to attack these big, slopey, Nicklaus-style Bermuda greens. Around the green, there are run-off areas into short grass, which leave elevated short game shots. I think around the green play will be at a premium, but the setup gives you the option to use a standard pitch shot or the Texas wedge (fitting!). It looks like we are due for some wind, with it kicking up over the weekend, so the ability to hit pure, piercing iron shots is essential. Once you get on the Bermuda greens, it’s all in front of you, I suspect the greens will be pretty quick, but they are so pure and do not offer a ton in the way of subtle slopes or breaks. I mentioned that Will Zalatoris won the US Jr. Boys Amateur here, so if you are looking for a comp from the men’s game, look no further. Stripes off the tee, flush your irons, and hope for a serviceable week on the greens.

The win looks to be pretty steady in the 15 mph range, but with gusts up to 25-30 mph. I think there’s a slight AM/PM edge but nothing too substantial. I think the biggest effect of the wind will be that players who just made the cut can ride the calmer winds on Saturday morning to chase the leaders who will face the sternest winds.

In terms of previous winners, Nelly won at 13 under and had won 4 times before her win at last year’s Chevron. Maja Stark rode the driver-putter combo to finish 2nd at 11 under and did have a top 5 finish 2 events prior. In 2023, Lilia Vu won a playoff at 10 under with Angel Yin, with Nelly finishing one shot off the pace. Lilia had recently won in Thailand, and ended the year as World No. 1. Lilia isn’t a bomber, but she was striping fairways and was 5th in approach play for the week.

This is where I pause because I can get into some of the more granular and statistical details, but I think that’s losing the forest from the trees. This is a demanding, straight forward, tee to green execution test. I don’t think you’ll see players finding their form this week. You add in the fact that is a Major, and you want players that have shown the guts to win. So let’s keep it simple and look at winners for the year: A Lim Kim, Noh, Angel, Lydia, Takeda, HJ Kim, Sagstrom, Lindblad.

Then let’s look at the top 5 in SG: Total this year: Jeeno, Noh, Nelly, A Lim Kim, Angel.

From a handicapping perspective, it’s hard to argue with the view that the best player over the past 3 months will be the winner. I know we are in Houston, but no need to treat this event like rocket science.

Player Thoughts:

Jeeno +900 – The form is insane, the numbers are insane. From a narrative perspective, this just makes sense. The best player in the world, who has probably underachieved in terms of wins, get her first Major. I go back to my earlier thoughts, Jeeno thrives on easy courses, this course is not easy. I won’t be betting her, but you probably should.

Nelly +1100 – You can’t ask for much better course history, a win and a 3rd where she missed the playoff by one? That’s as good as you’re gonna get. Nelly’s elite total driving and handy putting means that she’s probably going to win 3 more of these things. 11-1 is a good number, but again, Nelly hasn’t looked as good this year, nor does she have a win. It’s not just the eye-test, she’s been about a half shot worse with her irons this year. I worry about that, especially with the forecasted winds. I think I lean Jeeno slightly over Nelly, but if you want a player in the mix this week, just pick one of the two top dogs and you’ll have a sweat.

Lydia +1600 – It might be due to the fact that I’m writing this on a turbulent flight, but my Lydia spidey-senses are tingling. Her course history isn’t great and her game isn’t really fit for a bomber’s paradise. She probably hits her driver too low and too short, but the anticipated winds make me think that scrambling will have an increased emphasis. I’m probably trying to get too cute to even consider this, but she did just win in Singapore which was pretty beefy at 6700+ yards. Under consideration.

Angel Yin +2700 – Lost in a playoff here in 2023 and withdrew with injury last year. Bomber-putter who checks all the boxes: course fit, history, a win this year, and 5th in SG: Total. Heavily under consideration.

A Lim Kim +2500 – I had her circled this week as m favourite play, but then I saw the number and gagged. She has a 4th and a 9th here. On the year, she’s 1st in total driving, 4th in SG: total, and has a win. She also nabbed her sole Major win at the 2020 US Women’s Open in Texas. So why am I not betting her? She just makes too much sense and that’s never a good sign with golf betting. Will be genuinely heartbroken if she wins though.

Hae Ran Ryu + 2500 – She mixed heavily last year. An elite ballstriker who can make up for her lack of length with her accuracy and laser-like iron play. Her form has been okay, but not great. I think she has a winning problem, so I’ll stay away.

Minjee +2500 – She seems to have the putter figured out that plagued her all of last year, but her iron player has sneaky fallen off. If she gets those irons back, look out. I need to see it first though.

Lauren Coughlin +2500 – I absolutely get the case for Lauren Coughlin. She’s popular online, she finished 3rd here last year, and is coming off a 3rd in LA and a loss in the finals of the Match Play. Not the longest player, but will mint fairways and flush her irons. In the range of despair, I think you need to really like a player that is statistically deficient in the distance category. Combine that with the fact that this number is pretty short? I’m out.

Carlota Ciganda +8000 – Has a 6th and a 12th here. Top 3 in total driving. Has a ton of top finishes and wins in Aramco-sponsored events. Maybe she’s an oil baroness?

Betting Card

If you are reading this article and aren’t betting the LPGA Tour every week, but want to watch the event with a little skin in the game, I really like the Jeeno single bullet at 9-1. On Monday, it will probably look so obvious that she gets her first major win after being on a generational heater for the last year. What’s that old saying? You have to get your first Major somewhere.

Unfortunately, I’m playing the long game here and I have yet to decide if I will leave myself under-exposed at 15x with room for a weekend live add on or if I will add Lydia or Angel to the pre-tournament card. Will report back on Discord. Here is the card as it stands:

Rio Takeda +3300 (FD) – I think I’ve already given all the superlatives I can to young Rio. She’s so good at golf and so good at picking up wins. At beginning of the year, I said I would bet Takeda anytime the course is difficult and she 30-1. I’m not as concerned with her putting as these greens have some similarities to China in how easy they were to read.

Yealimi Noh +4000 (FD) – This is a fantastic number. She’s been the best American player over the last 3 months and got her breakthrough win in February. 9th here last year and missed the cut in 2023. Even with the missed cut, she had absurd driving and approach number, but was undone by a terrible putter. She’s mostly cleaned the putter up and is now 2nd in SG: Total. She fits the Zalatoris mold, and they even use the same putter!

Madelene Sagstrom (+12500 B365 but +15000 on FD) – This was my first click Monday morning. An absurd number on the recent Match Play winner.

Maja Stark +14000 (B365 but +15000 on FD) – 2nd place finish last year, 5th at the Match Play a few weeks ago. This is one of the few good numbers on the board for one of the 15-20 players who can actually win the event.