It was a busy work week for Mr Wrists, but he has put together some thoughts and a single bullet for the team event this week:

The team event this week is the Dow Championship in Midland, Michigan, hosted at Midland Country Club, where it’s been since 2019.

The format is the same as Zurich: two days of best ball and two days of alternate shot. The course is relatively short at 6,200 yards and is all in front of you. Literally anyone can contend here.

Objectively, I think you’d want to look at Poa putting, GIR, and birdie or better percentage. Subjectively, it’s hard to discount SG: Vibes. This event lets you pick your partner, so you definitely have some players doing charity work (Lydia playing with Danielle Kang). Even though it’s unserious, some players have conditional tour status and will be using the event as a chance to rack up some points.

Handicapping a team event can be tricky as is, but then consider you have to take on defending champions in Ronni and Jeeno. If you had the guts to bet Rory and Shane at Zurich, maybe you have the heart to bet them to defend — but I don’t.

The next big three teams are all clustered in the 7-1 range: Yamashita/Takeda, JH Lee/Somi Lee, and the Iwai twins. Lee/Lee aren’t really killers. It doesn’t seem like there’ll be a strategic edge where you have Takeda hitting all the approach shots with Yamashita putting, so I’d probably go with the Iwai twins for their balanced games and ability to rack up birdies.

The combo of Kupcho and Leona Maguire is something. Both are Solheim Cup killers. Both play their best golf on Poa — Kupcho with a win at ShopRite, the old Chevron, and a ton of top finishes at Meijer; and Leona has dominated at another Michigan Poa course in Blythefield. Doesn’t hurt that Leona is coming off her best performance in ages, mixing at KPMG before falling back on Sunday. 20-1 is a bit steep, though.

Ultimately, I stuck with the Jutanugarns at 33-1. Former winners of this event in 2021. Moriya is a Poa ace, with two top-3 finishes and a win on similar surfaces in Portland. Ariya has four top-10s in her last five.

A single bullet at 33-1 is what I need to get things back on track.