ITALIAN OPEN COURSE NOTES & SELECTIONS BELOW MODEL

COURSE NOTES

The DP is back — and back in a big way — with a new venue for the Italian Open. Located on the western coast of Italy, Argentario is a beautiful and intriguing track that hosted a Challenge Tour event last year. It appears to fall squarely into the Soudal/Kenya school of quirkiness, where length isn’t a huge factor and finding fairways is step one to success.

Now, as we’ve seen in Kenya and Soudal, that doesn’t you can’t gain significantly OTT via a combo of accuracy and distance. But compared to the average venue, that’s not going to be the most common path to success.

More likely, this week will come down to iron play and ARG skill. From what I can tell, the course can get baked out, and controlling approaches into these very small surfaces is going to be the key differentiator. Like in Kenya and Soudal, it may be impossible to hold some of these greens from the rough — even with shorter irons. So no matter how well you strike it, you’re going to need to gain a few strokes ARG to keep pace.

As always with a new venue, there’s no certainty in how it’ll play, but I feel confident leaning on the stat profiles from Kenya and Soudal, which typically see the bulk of strokes gained on approach and ARG. Looking at those leaderboards overall should be useful as well. In fact, John Parry — who should have won this year in Kenya — was the winner here on the Challenge Tour last fall which helps confirm that crossover. And while we did see a bomber rise to the top at Soudal this year, they did it while also gaining nearly four strokes ARG.

Bottom line: you probably can’t separate yourself from this field without a solid short game.

We’ll see how it plays out — but TLDR: iron play and short game.

OUTRIGHT SELECTIONS

The boys are also battling Vincent on the DP this year, and anything could happen. The DP is a true wildcard, and who knows where things end up.

Adam (+9.4 Point YTD; this week is to win +11.2 points)

John Parry +4000

It’s probably not this easy but he won here last year on the Challenge Tour and he’s already snagged a 2nd in Kenya and T4 in Soudal this season.  The price is plenty fair considering that comp success and course history so he’s an easy place to start the card for me.

Jorge Campillo +5500

A better number than it has been lately on Campillo and this fits his playing style quite well. He’s a previous winner in both Kenya and Soudal while also arriving with Top 10 finishes in two of his last four starts.

Jacob Skov Olesen +8000

The driver is the question mark in his game but everything else is high level, and this place should play into those strengths. Has put together five Top 20s in his last eight starts including a solid effort in Kenya. Lots of talent here in the young Viking Cupper and a good price to give him another shot.

Marcus Armitage +9000

Has been driving the ball much more accurately of late and has been in the mix a couple of times already this year. Extremely volatile player but has one of the better short games on the DP this year which is a big plus here.

Ignacio (Nacho) Elvira +10000

Comes in with three Top 20s in his last four starts and has minted high finishes in his career on the comp courses. Those results include a win at Soudal last year, and he has the upside to deliver a similar result here from the triple digits.

Pablo Larrazabal +15000

If we’re going to be scrambling, we’re always going to be in on Pablo at these prices.

Vincent (+8.3 Point YTD; this week is to win +11.1 points)

Ewen Ferguson +2500

Ferguson stands out as the premier value play with elite accuracy (5th) and solid short game skills (35th ARG). His combination of finding fairways and having the touch around the greens is exactly what this quirky course demands. At 25/1, he's significantly undervalued given his skill set perfectly matches what Argentario will reward.

Jayden Schaper +2800

Schaper brings the complete package for this venue - outstanding around-the-green play (32nd) paired with excellent approach work (15th) and superb accuracy (12th). His well-rounded skill set should thrive on a course where precision trumps power, and the odds don't reflect how perfectly suited his game is for this challenge.

Richie Ramsay +10000

The veteran Scot has won multiple times on the European Tour and knows how to navigate tricky setups. His short game mastery gives him a massive edge when others are struggling to get up and down, and his steady ball-striking should keep him in play all week. At these odds, you're getting exceptional value on a player whose skill set perfectly matches what this venue demands.

Matt (-5.1 Point YTD; this week is to win +15.6 points)

I’m prioritizing great driving and short-game skill. The undulating fairways and occasional long iron approaches will lead to missed greens—players who can recover and save par will separate themselves

Keita Nakajima +3300

Angel Ayora +4500

Ivan Cantero +11000