KLM OPEN - PREVIEW AND SELECTIONS BELOW MODEL.

COURSE NOTES

A fun venue on the DPWT this week as the KLM heads to the International. Here are some thoughts from Yanni P, which serves as a nice compliment to the clear handicapping picture we have of this venue. We’ve seen events here last year (won by Guido) and in 2019 (won by Sergio) which put together some great keys for winners coming into the event.

From a statistical standpoint you need to gain from the tee with accuracy and then either spike SG P or SG APP. As called out by Yanni, this course challenges you from the tee but the real point of differentiation occurs due to the greens. The key is playing either to the correct tiers (elite iron play) or rolling them in from long range (elite putting). Forced to choose between the two I definitely lean towards the iron play as you can set up plenty of makeable looks simply by finding the right tiers and taking advantage of funnel pins which yields easier putts.

The most valuable key however is the overlap with Le Golf National. Guido has won at both. Sergio was T8 in his lone appearance. Last year’s playoff losers have combined for three Top 20s in just six starts at Le Golf National. Rasmus, who finished T4 last year, has been excellent in Paris. There are very similar water-laden approaches and the statistical profiles have lots in common. It’s one of the strongest DP crossovers of the year and one we definitely want to lean into.

OUTRIGHT SELECTIONS

The boys are also battling Vincent on the DP this year, and anything could happen. The DP is a true wildcard, and who knows where things end up.

Adam (+10.4 Point YTD; this week is to win +10.3 points)

Keita Nakajima +2800

Not every week on the DPWT do you actually need to be good at golf to win. But these conditions may actually require that, and it’s on those types of courses that Nakajima has done his best work. A solid T11 last week to round back into form after the PGA.

Thriston Lawrence +4000

The nuances of the greens on the Tour fully perplexed Thristy, but he instantly returned to typical DPWT form with a T4 last time out in Soudal. A quick drop in price has followed, but he’s a favorite-level player in a field like this most of the time, so I’m in—especially when you factor in all of the SG Dog as well.

Marcel Siem +10000

Three Top 15s in his last five starts on the DPWT and a previous winner at Le Golf National. These are exactly the type of conditions where he pops.

Casey Jarvis +11000

We will never fully hop off the Jarvis hype train, though it hasn’t been great this year. That said, he continues to flash elite iron play numbers and had a nice debut here last year.

Dan Bradbury +17500

If you won last season at Le Golf National and are 175/1 here, it’s an auto this week. The regret would be too much.

Simon Forsström +20000

Positional merchant trending into form with T56, T25, T17 in his last three starts. Great history at Le Golf National and a winner a couple of years ago at Soudal.

Matt (-4.1 Point YTD; this week is to win +12.0 points)

A week in which keeping the ball in play is at a premium. If you missed the pod, tune into the first 10 minutes of the show where we broke down the course and found the winner for the week. Simple handicap here. Driving accuracy + home game. 

Eugenio Chacarra +3000

Ewen Ferguson +3900

Darius Van Driel +10000

Troy Merritt +10000

Vincent (+9.3 Point YTD; this week is to win +10.0 points)

Joost Luiten +2500

His elite approach play (6th in SG APP) and solid accuracy (6th) align perfectly with the course demands, while his strong course history (11th) suggests familiarity breeds success at this venue. The Dutch gallery support could provide the extra edge needed for a breakthrough week.

Sam Bairstow +3500

His putting prowess (27th in SG P) combined with excellent approach work (9th in SG APP) creates the perfect combination for navigating the tiered greens that define scoring opportunities here. The young Englishman has been knocking on the door and this setup suits his aggressive style.

Jayden Schaper +4000

South Africa's rising star sits third in the model with attractive 40/1 odds, bringing elite iron play credentials (15th in SG APP) that should translate well to this precision-demanding venue.