HAINAN CLASSIC COURSE KEYS AND SELECTIONS BELOW MODEL.

COURSE NOTES

The somewhat blind journey through the DP World Tour season continues in Hainan for the final stop of the Asian Swing at Mission Hills Blackstone. While the course once hosted a World Cup won by Gary Woodland and Matt Kuchar, that was ages ago and doesn’t offer much in terms of actionable insight. What we do know: this is a long course on the card, but elevation changes make it play a bit shorter. It’s a classic resort-style layout where solid ball striking will keep you in the mix—but to separate, you’ll need to get hot with the flatstick. The greens are relatively straightforward, setting the stage for a putting contest among the more powerful ball strikers. While a few different styles could work here, the forecast looks extremely damp, which may tilt the edge slightly toward Driver/Putter builds. Then again, it’s the DPWT—and last week reminded us that SG Home Game might be all you need. Trust your gut.

SELECTIONS

The boys are also battling Vincent on the DP this year, and anything could happen. The DP is a true wildcard, and who knows where things end up.

Adam (-9 Point YTD; this week is to win +10.8 points)

Marco Penge +4000

I still think Marco would have won in SA if they played the final round, but alas. Will give him another shot on a golf course where his length will be a big advantage, and there is spike upside in the flatstick as well. Solid T26 in this part of the world last week to build upon.

Daniel Hillier +4500

Hillier is playing some of the most consistent golf of his career since challenging for the title in Dubai early this year. He has just the powerful ball striking we are after this week, and his limited skill ARG won’t hurt him here. Willing to roll the dice on the putter at this number.

Connor Syme +8500

Didn’t work last week but has some of his best career results have come off MCs. This is a spot he should have clean iron looks repeatedly, and few in the field are better able to capitalize in those scenarios.

Ricardo Gouveia +10000

Won in Hainan on the Challenge Tour a couple of years ago and comes in with three straight finishes of T32 or better. Was 3rd in Korea on a comparable enough course in the fall, and we will see if his comfort level in the region can shine through in the triple digits.

Pablo Larrazabal +11000

Always and forever.

Freddy Schott +12500

Prototypical Driver/Putter player who should really enjoy the conditions this week. Was T11 in the China Open last year but missed out last week for a Challenge Tour start (which has a new name apparently). Good chance to step up and contend immediately on a great course fit.

Matt (-0.1 Point YTD; this week is to win +22.0 points)

This week brings a new course and a tricky handicap, which should make for an intriguing test. Based on early looks, this setup appears to be one where danger lurks off the tee—narrow landing zones and well-placed hazards mean that only the most complete drivers (both long and straight) will thrive.

That edge will matter: players who can carry trouble and find the short grass will have shorter clubs into well-protected greens, creating real scoring opportunities. Because of this volatility, I’m playing a light card with high ROI potential. Winners on the DPWT don’t come often, but when they do, they can swing the season. A hit here could give us a huge edge on the season.

Let’s play the hits:

Thompson-Robinson +4500
Cantero +9000
Tarren +9200

Vincent (+2.7 Point YTD; this week is to win +8.7 points)

Matthew Jordan +2500

He’s been trending with his irons, his putting has shown signs of life, and he profiles as the type of player who excels on damp, neutralizing setups. If the course plays a bit shorter due to elevation and rewards ball-striking consistency over brute force, Jordan could be right there come Sunday.

Joost Luiten +2600

Luiten is my favorite balance of value and win potential this week. His game travels well, and he ranks near the top of the field in SG Approach—a critical metric at a course like this that rewards consistent second-shot execution. He also gains strokes in all key categories, and in a field without much separation at the top, his veteran presence and ability to keep the ball in play makes him a high-floor, high-upside pick. If putting is the separator, he’s quietly good enough to get it done.

Julien Guerrier +3500

He’s gaining in both SG Approach and SG Putting—arguably the two most important categories for this event. His overall game trends positively in softer conditions, and the elevation should help mitigate his lack of elite distance. With recent top-25 finishes and signs that the putter is trending, he fits the mold of a player who can spike in a low-scoring contest. At this number, he’s a sharp value bet with real Sunday equity.