DP CHAMPS - SELECTIONS AND COURSE NOTES BELOW MODEL.

COURSE NOTES

Another week on the DP, another winner from the Tour. And, now we head to a spot where the winner is usually a Tour player. So, it’s quite likely that continues here and that’s largely been the story of this circuit for the last few months. Usually we end with that note, but we start with it here because it really has been an amazing run of top heavy results.

But, let’s talk about the course.

This is a spot where there have been a variety of playing styles that have had success but it’s usually all set up by long/relatively accurate driving. That’s why Rory has had so much success but even he noted that the rough is much less penal than usual this time around. That likely increases the importance of iron play which always matters a lot here, but without as much penalty for waywardness this week it really is going to come down to who can spike with the iron play and the putter. Scoring last year was down a bit but Rory also noted he expects the -20 or beyond winners we’ve seen here in 2022 and 2023 which featured leaderboards filled with players that can put up 8+ approach efforts. Now, combining that with distance is a huge plus here and that extra pop was the difference maker when Nicolai won in 2023.

Overall the focus is upside in the iron play but if you can combine that with distance, that’s the best path.

OUTRIGHT SELECTIONS

Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount defined.

Vincent (+12.1 Point YTD; this week is to win +20.0 points)

Nicolai Hojgaard (+2000)

Hojgaard is the 2023 champion whose profile perfectly matches this week's demands - elite distance combined with spike iron play potential. His proven ability to deliver 8+ strokes gained approach efforts while maintaining pop off the tee creates the optimal combination. At 20/1, he offers excellent value as a former champion with the exact skill set needed this week.

Adam (-4.4 Point YTD; this week is to win +18.0 points)

Tyrrell Hatton +1800

The driver has been a bit wild lately for Tyrrell but I don’t expect that to be an issue for him in these conditions, and when he has clear iron looks he has as much iron play upside as anyone in the field. Has Top 5 finishes in two of his last three starts overall and has always played great golf in this part of the world with wins in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in his career. This is a spot he was T2 in similar conditions back in 2022 and I will take a bit of a price discount after the poor effort last week coming to a spot he has over a decade of great history and comfort.

Matt (-19.1 Point YTD; this week is to win +14.0 points) 

It’s tough to shy away from the top of the board this week. Not just recently—big names have dominated this event for years. Long and straight driving sets up quality approach opportunities, and at 7,700 yards, positioning off the tee is critical. We’ve seen players like Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Nicolai Højgaard, and Matt Fitzpatrick earn breakout wins here before going on to accomplish much more in their careers.

Ludvig Åberg +1400

Who is a young, elite driver on the verge of a breakout in 2026? The answer is Ludvig Åberg. His fall season hasn’t been perfect, but there have been signs of life. He started strong at the BMW PGA before fading late, and the driver looked better last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. His game appears to be trending upward, and I don’t want to miss what feels like an inevitable Ludvig win. This could be the spot.