How Vincent Ranked the Courses
The ranking process combined two key components: player performance correlations and course statistics.
Here were the steps:
1. First, we calculated performance correlations using historical strokes gained data. For each course, we identified players who had competed at both that course and Kapalua, requiring a minimum of 50 common players. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure how similarly players performed at each course compared to Kapalua.
2. For course statistics, we calculated the differences between each course and Kapalua in key metrics from our course statistics database (par 5 scoring, off-the-tee performance, approach play, etc.). Smaller differences indicated more similar playing characteristics.
3. The final rankings primarily reflect the performance correlations (weighted at 70%) with course statistical similarity (weighted at 30%) as a secondary factor. This weighting prioritizes actual player performance while still accounting for course characteristics.
For example, Harbour Town ranks #1 despite not being the most statistically similar course because it has the strongest performance correlation (0.349) with a robust sample size of 254 players. Meanwhile, Waialae appears at #3 despite having a higher correlation than Riviera (#2) because Riviera shows more statistical similarity to Kapalua in key metrics like SG OTT and approach play.
Each "Key Statistical Deltas" entry shows the three most relevant statistical differences (in either direction) between that course and Kapalua, helping explain why players might perform similarly (or differently) at each venue.
Courses included in analysis (44 total): Narashino Country Club, Albany GC, Augusta National, Bay Hill Club, Colonial, Corales Golf Club, Detroit Golf Club, East Lake, El Camaleon, El Cardonal At Diamante, Grand Reserve Golf Club, Harbour Town, Innisbrook, Keene Trace, Memorial Park Golf Course, Muirfield Village Golf Club, Pebble Beach, Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA National, Pinehurst Resort No 2, Plantation Course At Kapalua, Port Royal Golf Course, Quail Hollow, Royal Troon, Sea Island, Sedgefield Country Club, Silverado Resort North Course, Southern Hills Country Club, Tahoe Mountain Club, The Country Club Of Jackson, Renaissance Club, Riviera, Torrey Pines South Course, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Deere Run, TPC River Highlands, TPC San Antonio, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Southwind, TPC Summerlin, TPC Twin Cities, Vidanta Vallarta, Waialae