Olympics Preview

L25 SG for Top 2 Finishers:

And, what we get is a picture of a spike putting, spike approach contest in-tournament. But, the incoming form is heavily skewed towards the putting side of that equation. In fact it’s incoming OTT play that has pointed more towards who is going to have a spike approach week here than any of the actual incoming APP numbers.

The likely reason for this odd ball striking dynamic is the tricky rough and numerous water hazards on approach. The ability to spike on approach is set up by quality driving and if you aren’t playing from the right spots OTT you are not going to have the opportunities to hit the iron shots which will continually gain on the field.

We also see reduced value in incoming ARG form.

So from a profile perspective this week the only thing we can really feel confident about is above average putting baselines, and then we’d lean towards OTT play as the next most important key. And, OTT we have seen both big hitters and more positional players have success but ultimately a balanced OTT profile would be my preference here. If the player is a bomber they can get away with below average accuracy but it can’t be extreme.

Obviously we are also mainly talking about DPWT fields here and that can skew the stats a bit. But, when we see so many examples of really poor APP players having career best weeks at this event we have to consider that course dynamics are a big culprit. And, with the testing rough - down slightly versus the Ryder Cup but still penal - and water hazards it is a unique ball striking test where getting out of position can make it very difficult to do anything with your iron play. So, playing from the right positions OTT, playing towards the middle of the green, and making a ton of putts is the recipe.

It’s not a full blown putting contest, but again that is the area where I will feel most confident in targeting guys. It’s also not entirely driver/putter but if I had to define a profile that we’d normally use that is the one that is the best fit for this week.

Of players on the above list all but one had a +4.5 putting effort within their last six starts.

There really aren’t a ton of great comps with so much being DPWT overlap, and I’m not totally sold on the “it’s a Florida golf course” takes because it’s really not. It’s a unique test and the only course that actually shares a lot of overlap success is Torrey Pines. Which actually makes sense when we consider that it is a spike approach, spike putting venue where incoming driving is a solid predictor of who will spike on approach.

Pavon’s stat line there this year is almost exactly in-line with the in-tournament numbers at this place, as was Homa’s the year before. So, I won’t say I am going to care too much about comp courses but Torrey is my favorite.

Course history has been largely meaningless here historically in the sense that winners have won with horrible histories. But, good histories tend to be sticky especially on the greens so guys who have been consistently successful are worth a look but bad history can be pretty much ignored.

Now to the weather where things look incredibly benign during the week, and it’s so benign I am not going to take the time to format the photo in the article. Here is the link if you want to see it, but not worth worrying about.

It is expected to rain quite steadily tomorrow, which should soften the course and make it a bit easier to keep the ball in the fairways while also dampening the rough. That may shift the OTT profile ever so slightly towards the accuracy side of things, but again balance is the name of the game here OTT and obviously plus distance and plus accuracy would be ideal.

It should dry out as the week goes on, and the key for the week shouldn’t be impacted too much by the weather but as always we will monitor until go time in the Discord.