Open Boots Report

The Course

Sunday/Monday Report

As always, we’re going to call it how we see it — this isn’t as serious of a golf course as we expected or were hoping. Adam has gone as far as to call it potentially a Top 100 course in the UK. It’s beautiful without question (extremely beautiful), but as a test for professional golfers, it doesn’t hit the mark. This won’t be a full test across the bag. In fact, it’s probably not too late to shift this event 10 minutes down the road to Portstewart, where a member at both Portstewart and Portrush confirmed our hunch that the more serious ball-striking test lies west among the towering dunes of Portstewart. Maybe we’re a bit biased after the most difficult golf course we’d ever seen at Oakmont, but there isn’t much teeth in this place.

The clear defense of this venue is weather. But it’s not looking great there either. Across two days here, we’ve probably already seen the most fearsome winds of the week, and it’s done little to sour our belief that scores will be lower than hoped for a major championship. Additionally, this is the most green and lush (aka not baked) of the courses we’ve been to in the area this week. It’s still firm versus a typical golf course, but we don’t seem likely to see baked conditions and we also don’t expect to see much wind. That’s a recipe for scoring at a course where short irons and wedges will be in players' hands early and often. It’s worth remembering that Lowry was -16 entering the final round here before cataclysmic final-round conditions, and the door is open for that level of play this week.

With all of that being said — it seemed important to start there in case any narratives of extremely difficult conditions were abound — let’s take a look at each aspect of the course and how it will play into the profile this week. In the spirit of saving time, though, we won’t bury the lede: hit fairways (so many off-speed driver swings to get the ball in play), mint irons from 100–175, and make a lot of slow green putts. The GIR rate should be high, and it’s hard not to see the putter becoming really important here. All in all, after laying eyes on this place for two days, it makes so much sense why Shane won — because T2G he is a positional, iron-play merchant, and at that time he could only putt slow greens (now he’s a bit more of a slick Bermuda man).

OTT

The rough is going to be luckbox AF this week (more on that in a second). Overall, this rough is much less gnarly than what we saw at Troon, and there are lots of spots where you should be able to advance the ball around the green. Hitting the green will be tricky from it, though, and the difference between fairways and missed fairways is the difference between being able to attack for birdie or scrambling for par. The winner will live in the fairway this week — not because the rough is hack-outs, but because it’s where you can hunt birdies. It’s probably most similar to Royal Liverpool (at least of the last three Opens).

Where the luckbox comes into play is that there are a reasonable amount of spots where you can get super boned and lose your ball. Those areas can be 10 feet away from a spot where you have a super clean look. There could be guys who skirt trouble all week and play okay without hitting fairways, but it’s certainly not the path here. The path is to get the ball in the fairway and attack.

What is also crucial to note is that you almost never need to nuke driver. In fact, you could probably play all 72 holes without ever taking a full rip with the big stick. There are some holes where long/straight driving will be richly rewarded, but this isn’t a place where distance can separate you from the pack. That will occur with the iron play and putter no matter how far you hit it.

TLDR: hit the fairway, no need to nuke, one of the most positional courses we’ve seen in a while at a major.

APP

Going to be extremely important. If you aren’t hitting great iron shots this week, you’re not going to be able to keep up. They’re likely going to be forced to put the pins in some tricky spots, but good iron players won’t be afraid. They’ll be able to take on the flag from the fairway on a vast majority of holes, and there’s no reason why elite iron play can’t average inside 25’ proximity this week. Overall, it should be a lot of mid to short irons. Short-side misses in spots can get boned for sure, but smart iron play will set up a ton of birdie looks. You’re going to have to give yourself those looks to be in the mix.

With the wind up, it’s important to be able to flight your irons, but it’s probably less important in the expected conditions. Still, we’d prefer lower flights here because even shorter, straighter misses have the chance to run up the greens toward the pin. Again, think Shane’s iron shots: flat, crisp, limited curve.

Additionally, at the moment the greens aren’t firm enough for the false fronts or edges to reject balls. They look like they’re designed to do just that, but balls are holding up in spots where it looks like they should roll away. That further encourages aggressive iron looks — and they also don’t overly spin, so you don’t have to worry too much about ripping it off the green. Should be ideal for attacking.

The other area where approach skill becomes important is actually off the tee, because you can hit long iron OTT here a lot. Due to this, I don’t think we need to bias too much into specific iron buckets. You can rip long irons OTT here and get them into the fairway, which will then set up the mid-to-short iron approaches. So, you’ll wear out irons across the bag here — and hitting them flat and straight will be the calling card of guys who play well. We’ve been joking this week that we only want guys who carry the orange-shafted long irons, because those are always drilled long, flat, and straight, which works OTT here so often. Funny enough, after a range session in which he looked like he’d never golfed before, Collin was given two orange-shafted clubs by his equipment rep and began hitting the ball beyond belief. The equipment guys know the key here is the orange shaft and drilling long irons from the tee.

TLDR: must stripe your irons across the bag if you want to mix.

ARG

These aren’t the most difficult ARG conditions, but they’re not easy either. I’d argue it’s more important where you leave yourself ARG than your overall skill. From the right areas — usually short of the green — pitches are pretty straightforward. From the wrong areas — usually long left of the green — pitches can be basically impossible. You can’t be a bad ARG player this week because you can’t take too many steps backward, but I don’t think you need to be the greatest ARG player either. Average to above average should get the job done if partnered with elite iron play and putting.

PUTT

Gotta make putts. Just have to. In a lot of ways this has the vibes of Royal Liverpool, where Brian Harman putted his way to victory with the Top 5 on the leaderboard combining to gain 30 strokes on the greens. The difference is that a bit more undulation in the surfaces here shifts a bit of the burden to the iron play — you’ll need to be in the correct sections of the greens to have super makeable looks.

With that said, a good putter with looks all day from 25’ can beat a bad putter with looks all day from 15’. The “no duh” result of this is that a good putter with looks all day from 15’ could take it mega low. Still, I think we’ll see a more balanced approach + putting stat line than Liverpool, which didn’t see many spike approach weeks near the top of the leaderboard. The winner will most likely need to spike in both areas.

Importantly, these greens aren’t very quick by PGA Tour standards. You can pretty much always give them a run and they appear to be quite smooth, so we shouldn’t expect as much complaining as we saw last week in Scotland. Guys who are comfortable on slower greens — think coastal courses, links courses, and/or poa surfaces — should really like the setup on these greens.

Overall Profile

• Accuracy (distance not really necessary but will obviously be a plus if combined with serious accuracy)

• Iron play across the bag

• Spike putting with elite skill in the mid-range, comfort on slower surfaces

• Be a linksman. It’s not peak links conditions this week, but it’s still different grasses, will be damp/cold, and there are a handful of blind shots. You’re still going to have to love links golf even in these conditions.

• Strokes Gained Caddy. This place isn’t difficult but it is strategic. You’re going to need to put the ball in the right positions and not bite off more than you can chew if you get out of position. Bad decisions won’t get the job done.

Hole by Hole

1) Tricky opener with internal OB on both sides of the fairway. Can pretty much hit whatever club you want OTT as long as you can hit it into a 30 yard corridor. From there it’s the start of what will be true of almost every hole - stripe an iron, make a putt. Par is a good start.

2) Shortish Par 5 where the difference between attacking and playing for par is determined by getting the tee shot in play. Not a super easy approach, but a good tee shot should be a birdie.

3) Mid iron Par 3. Hit the green and it’s a birdie look, miss the green and it’s scrambling for par. Another iron play + putting hole. -3 thru 3 absolutely in play.

4) Serious hole with OB right, and trouble left. Gotta hit driver here and one of the few big boy driving holes. Mid iron into the green and par will be very good score all four days, but elite ball strikers could set up birdies.

5) Potentially driveable down the hill towards the ocean, but you also can just hit the orange shaft down to flip wedge range. Tons of birdies.

6) Up hill, mid to long iron Par 3. Pretty big green and another spot for elite iron play + putting to differentiate.

7) If you’ve ever been to Chambers Bay, this is hole #8 at Chambers Bay in reverse. Long Par 5 with a massive dune all the way up the right side. Definitely reachable for a lot of guys if they hit it straight and are good woodsman. Should be a few eagles and lots of birdies. If you miss this fairway you’re likely sacrificing at least a half shot to the field and hoping for birdie.

8) Dogleg left Par 4 where the goal is to carry it around 260 and then hit a short iron into the green. Very similar to most holes where fairway + good iron shot + good putt = birdie.

9) Draw required OTT here and not the easiest of tee shots. One of the sterner Par 4s on the front and par will be good.

Score if dialed: -6

Score if playing well: -3

Score if you want to have a chance: -1

10) Dogleg right OTT where you want to hit an off speed driver into the fairway and then it’s a short iron into a narrow, funnel green. You can literally miss 10 yards left or right and it will kick into the middle of the green. Another fairway + iron play + putting hole. Birdie chance for sure.

11) Dogleg right OTT where you once again want to hit an off speed driver into the fairway and then it’s a short to mid iron into a green with a meaningful false front. Rinse repeat: fairway + iron play + putting. Clear birdie chance.

12) Extremely short Par 5 where a straight drive will give every player in the field an eagle opportunity. Super unserious hole, a joke. Not too late to change it to a Par 5. 

13) Longer Par 3 but downhill. Troublesome bunkers await on each side and once again a spot to separate with the iron play and flatstick.

14) One of the more challenging drives on the course but still not a long hole so you can half speed one into play. You guessed it - hit the fairway and you can attack with a short iron.

15) Bite off what you’re willing to chew over the corner of the dogleg left but most will just put it in play and leave a mid to short iron in. Same as before, not even going to type it.

16) Signature Par 3 with a massive ravine to the right of the green, and the need to deliver a long iron into the center of the surface. Shouldn’t be too much carnage unless the wind arrives but par certainly the goal.

17) Shortish Par 4 with a massive downslop around 280 that could get your ball close to the green. Seems like a lot will lay up to the top and attack with a short iron but long/straight drivers could have a go at the green. Great birdie chance.

18) Dogleg right, downhill finisher where driver is a risk. Just get the orange shaft into play and then hit one of the longer iron approaches of the day. By definition a finisher where you can hit iron OTT isn’t serious enough for our standards.

Score if dialed: -5

Score if playing well: -3

Score if you want to have a chance: -1

Scoring

Will have a final thought here tomorrow, but without seeing any of the props yet leaning towards the under no matter what it comes out at. There just isn’t enough trouble this week to stop someone dialed with the profile to take it deep. 

Comps

At this point, it should go without saying that the comps should emphasize accuracy, iron play and putting. Most recent Open’s have rewarded that which is helpful, and there are obviously some Tour comps we can look to as well. But, no need to be a rocket scientist on the comp front this week. Find places that reward the keys and be cautious with some of the Tour comps due to the agronomy differences.

Opens - Royal Troon (front nine), Royal Liverpool, Royal St George’s

Tour -  Harbour Town, TPC Southwind, Sawgrass, PGA National, TPC River Highlands

Tuesday Report

Course Report

There’s not much to add today on the key profiles (accuracy, iron play, putting to the max, linksman, SG Caddy) because nothing happened to change those. We saw a record number of practice-round shots inside 20 feet, a hole-in-one from amateur Jakubcik, and the GIR rate remained sky high. There’s still almost no benefit to trying to nuke it—it’s a place where less is more. Most importantly, we saw a bit of everything weather-wise today, which remains the main difference-maker this week.

Weather

When it’s calm, this is one of the easier golf courses we’ve ever seen. A bit more challenge comes when cells of cold, wind, and rain blow through. In those conditions, it’s still relatively easy for a major test, but the margin for error shrinks. However, with receptive greens due to rain, even when it blows, guys are still sticking it close.

Thursday and potentially Sunday look like the trickier weather days. That will make it harder to stuff irons close, but playing from the fairway still allows for plenty of safe shots to the middle of greens; finding fairways remain the fundamental key. Friday and Saturday look calm with soft greens, and they will definitely go low on those days. When the wind has been down this week, truly almost every shot has been inside 25 feet and most inside 15’.

Pins

As mentioned yesterday, they’ll likely trick out the pins to compensate for the soft conditions. The result: tons of players putting from 10–30 feet if they’re hitting fairways. It’s looking more and more like the putter will be a huge part of the story. Elite iron players won’t be able to stuff it all day—but solid ball-strikers who are comfortable on these greens will thrive.

Tucked pins also elevate the value of SG Caddy. You cannot short-side yourself or miss fairways. Do either, and you’re scrambling hard. Do neither, and it’s a very straightforward course. The difference between serious play and unserious play will be stark—serious players will go very low, unserious play will stall around par.

Waves

This will need monitoring up until go-time, but some players are going to get boned. The current AM/PM wave looks like it’ll enjoy calmer conditions, letting them attack every hole. Those facing wind and rain will be limited to attacking maybe 50–60% of the time depending on wind direction. If this forecast holds, the AM/PM wave will have a real edge.

That said, when the wind picks up, about half the holes play downwind, which could cancel out some of the impact. Also, due to the course’s easy nature and the lack of stress OTT, a strong wave advantage likely won’t result in the destructive impact we saw at Troon but it will be meaningful.

One extra note: if you’re in the bad wave, ARG matters more. In the good wave, it doesn’t matter as much since if you miss a bunch of greens in easy conditions, you’re not good enough this week. However, good short game will still allow for under-par rounds out of the tougher wave and then you can attack big time on Saturday.

Scoring

If the weather turns catastrophic, scoring obviously gets tougher. But even then, the greens won’t be nearly as penal as they would be if they were firm and it doesn’t seem like it will be catastrophic at all. There’s rejection potential here, but it likely won’t show up this week unless you mishit or misjudge approaches significantly.

The Titleist guys—who see a lot of venues—thought -20 could be in play which is where Lowry would have gotten in these conditions in 2019 before Sunday winds. That number is certainly possible if there’s no wind, but some challenge appears likely for at least part of the field.

You can absolutely go low in at least a couple rounds. In calm conditions, there are great birdie chances on 2, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, and 17, with solid looks on 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, and 14. So, someone dialed should fire a couple -6 or -7 rounds. Factor in some wind, tough pins, and major pressure, and a winning score in the high teens seems most likely. There should also be major variance from the top to the bottom of the board when it comes to scoring as guys not dialed won’t be making anywhere close to as many birdies as the dialed guys.

Thursday looks like the toughest day, so scoring may take a round to pick up—but once it does, they’ll start racking them up.