PGA Boots Report

Quail Hollow Club

Charlotte, NC

The Course

Monday Report

Tuesday Report

BREAKING – You’re going to need to drive it well this week.

No, obviously this is not breaking news by any means. All statistical evidence points to an elite driving test, and these are some of the toughest driving conditions I’ve ever seen. There are so few places to miss off the tee, and the rough is thick, consistent, and will absolutely factor into controlling shots into the greens. It’s led to guys practicing from punch-out positions more than I’ve ever seen during Boots.

Even with the preposterous amount of rain, the course is moving pretty nicely and actually looks to be in immaculate shape. It’s firmer than I would’ve expected—HUGE shoutout to our friends at SubAir. Obviously, it’s still on the softer side, but if the rain stays away from here on out (which it very well could), I see a world in which this place plays just how we want it.

Right now, balls are landing in the fairways very quietly due to the softness there, but greens are surprisingly firm all things considered. Elite driving and strong long iron play (which of course jumps out statistically here as well) could be even more richly rewarded if a softer fairway, lusher rough, firmer greens scenario continues to develop.

Now, the weather is causing havoc on my week, and we were called off the course for a while in the middle of the day today. But upon returning, it was yet another example of how shocked and impressed I was with how the course holds up under these cataclysmic rains. Huge shoutout to Adam for the verbiage—one thing about him, he knows “rain words”; SG: Pacific Northwest.

A ton of ARG practice, as there always tends to be during major weeks, but these conditions are something guys will be familiar enough with. I think they’re perfectly fair and nothing out of the ordinary for Quail. Good chippers will rise, bad chippers will fall. That’s how it should be.

I saw a ton of people note that there is “no rough.” This is some of the more penal rough I’ve seen this season and would compare it to Bay Hill.
Is it unplayable? No.
Will it be a factor coming in from 200 yards into heavily guarded greens? 1000% yes.

Playing from the fairway is an absolute must this week because the moment you miss the fairway, bogey comes into play. Due to this, being long AND straight is a monumental advantage in conditions like this. Obviously it is always an advantage, but it’s another level at a course like Quail Hollow especially with the PGA set up.

Ultimately, I’m not here to shock the world with a Boots Report about a familiar course like Quail Hollow. I’m here to check in on any nuances we need to add to the Course Preview. But a lot of this isn’t rocket science. The conditions haven’t really altered much of what we’d expect based on the history here and in PGAs at large.

Driving the ball at a high level with elite long iron play is the formula and the clear target profile. That said, shorter hitters can absolutely make some hay here if they’re having a great long iron week. There are a handful of those players (think Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, JJ Spaun, Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger, Keegan Bradley) who can do it without elite power because they maintain a high GIR %. In the end, that high GIR % will be essential to be in the mix and elite, powerful ball strikers have the big head start.

Wednesday Report

Early in the morning, the course does look greener and wetter, but it dries throughout the day. I stand by my belief that the course will be fully dried out once this storm is behind us—especially as we get to the weekend. The fairways, particularly in the low spots, are where most of the water is being retained. On the flip side, the greens have significantly more kick than the fairways. The scenario discussed yesterday (softer fairways, lusher rough, firmer greens) continues to unfold.

The green firmness is especially notable when we consider the pavement-like conditions we saw here last year. They are not at that same peak level, but plenty of guys are still getting rejected over the backs of greens even with a fair amount of moisture still in the surfaces. It will be a real test hitting your spots on these firming up surfaces especially as the week goes on.

The greens already showing bounce is also relevant in the context of the rough. Is it the world’s deepest rough where players have to pitch out repeatedly?

No—and that’s not the point.

Where players are really struggling is hitting and holding greens from the rough, even with wedges. The exact opposite of what we saw last week. Here, the green firmness combined with increased rough lushness (Rory confirmed it’s thicker than normal) is what matters. That combination makes the “no rough” narrative incorrect. The rough is thicker than usual, and when paired with the firm greens, you’ll absolutely pay a price for being in the rough too often. In other words, there is a rough penalty.

So how does this all come together?

Well, it’s not far off from what we’ve been saying about Quail all week: elite, powerful ball striking is the key—and that’s even more true now with the setup of wetter fairways, lusher rough, and greens that continue to firm up. Another way to frame it: elite carry distance is even more valuable, pairing that with accuracy provides an even bigger edge than normal, and players who can launch towering iron shots will be at a clear advantage. Naturally, shorter clubs into greens can also greatly help in producing that higher trajectory adding to the elite driving bias.

With that in mind, there are two profiles this week that we can classify as Tier A and Tier B. Overall, nothing has really changed from what we were already targeting yesterday.

Profile A is quintessential Quail. Nuke central off the tee, setting up far less intimidating approach shots. In this profile, you don’t need to stuff everything to 8 feet—elite driving puts you in position to avoid bogeys, make easy pars, and pick off birdies along the way. Over 72 holes, this driving advantage adds up. Rockets off the tee, but not rocket science.

Profile A examples: Rory, Bryson, Min Woo, Ben An, Nik Nørgaard, Keith, Rico, Pendy, Ludvig, Kurt

Profile B is a player who’s not quite a bomber, but definitely not short. You still need to gain OTT this week, but there’s a path to do that through above average distance paired with elite accuracy. These players have another hurdle to clear though: they must excel with longer irons. It’s a tougher route, but the only other realistic one and we can’t cross these guys off.

Profile B examples: Scottie, Collin, JT, Pat, Conners, Keegan, Smalley, Berger, Griffin

Overall this should also look like typical Quail scoring (which is -15 on average over the last four renditions). I don’t expect it to play easier than usual, but it likely won’t be much tougher either. What we often see here is a small group of players who can robotically execute the Tier A profile running away from the field, while the rest are well back. Rory was eight clear of 3rd last year, and Clark was seven clear of 3rd in 2023. That could very well happen again and does mean there is a slight difference in how to target different markets. More playing styles can be rewarded outside the Top 5-10 where hot putters / short games can overcome non-elite ball striking.

Player Reports

As always these are simply one data point to consider for players, and should be treated as such. It’s golf. Things will change.

Monday Report

Tuesday Report

As mentioned above, rains made things a challenge again today from a coverage standpoint. Tomorrow looks solid though, so hopefully can cover lots of ground.

  • Richard Bland (obviously who everyone came here to find out about) does not look too comfortable off the tee.

  • Max Greyserman is a really unserious iron player 

  • P Reed not looking too dialed off the tee but if he can keep it in play he should fight for par at a very high rate. Will that be enough firepower though?

  • Ben Griffin has surely gained distance and he looks as confident as ever. Flushing across the board. Flowchart.

  • I was really looking forward to seeing how Hideki was driving it and I sadly have to report that I had to help him and his team on a ball hunt in the woods. I thought I found his ball and he told me to pick it up and it was sadly a BRIDGESTONE. I surely picked up someone else's ball which could have been a problem. TLDR; Hideki was hitting multiple balls off the tee and was off the absolute planet. Concerning because this was my only question coming in but great for his chances of winning because of Hideki flowchart. 

  • Sungjae one of the few who looked baffled on the greens which is odd due to experience here, did not seem to be hitting it well either 

  • Beau Hoss is a fairly unserious ball striker, surprise no one

  • Ryo loves NC Bermuda, looked competent with the ball striking but will make a few too many mistakes to be confident in positional markets

  • Matt McCarty with some nice prep and love the fade he hits as a lefty. Possibly building on some confidence from Augusta and can roll the rock.

  • Kevin Yu has Top 5 T2G written all over him and that goes a long way here

  • Mike Thor and Karl both a little loose off the tee for my liking

  • Min Woo driving it unbelievable. Massive, massive advantage if he keeps this up. Hard, very serious prep, no hype videos today.

  • Collin did look confident. I hate how often his coach has to video him. Something we've seen for years and has led to zero (0) wins. Looks to be driving it well, knows how important fairways are and PGA merchant. 

  • J Day just looks so comfortable at Quail. Shocker.

  • Mike Kim not swinging, just walking the course and chipping when I saw him.

  • Rahm & Joaco group is solid vibes, both carrying a little edge with them and look solid with the long irons. 

  • Pavs does not miss fairways in P Rounds. Generally long and straight which works around Quail but he is really a shell of himself and no longer the face of French golf.

  • Vic Perez shaky off the tee but looked competent with the long irons 

  • Mav stays looking better at golf than so many competitors. The driver alone should have him fighting for a T20 at the worst. Bounce back time.

  • Cantlay has done nothing but impress all year. It comes down to if he has the ability to being serious when it matters.

  • For someone who doesn't like Quail Hollow, Scottie looks more than in control. Won't try to do to much. Hit fairways, lean into the elite long iron game and play smart.

  • Sam B seemed to have found something last week, can confirm he looked really solid. Best i've seen him since the West Coast, played extremely well in the last Bermuda Major. I will say, the driving is too difficult for it to really work for him here though.

  • Xander is still really struggling with the off the tee situation

  • Jimmy Walks really taking the “dial it back, keep it in play off the tee approach”. That is his only path to a made cut.

  • Davis Riley does not seem to be hitting it well, remember when he mixed at Southern Hills?

Wednesday Report

This is a toughhhhh course to cover. Limited sight lines and a monstrous walk. Gathered as many guys as I could confidently comment on.

  • Takumi (always gotta start the report with the most important players) is far too short off the tee and was not hitting it well.

  • Matt Fitz continues to not stripe but does have a new pep in his step that we also saw last week. Recent quotes have him seemingly more confident as well. Strong long iron player.

  • Sergio not stripes, checks out with the LIV ball striking numbers.

  • Tyrrell was a tad loose off the tee and did not look fully dialed. He was one who was baffled with a wedge not stopping next to a back pin and could get flustered out here at times.

  • JT hitting it on the button, yet again, dimensional level ball striking (that’s as good as it gets in the Vincerix dictionary)

  • Gary still really moves it, but also did not look 100% with the irons. Same as last week.

  • Berger not as dialed as I would have hoped to see.

  • Rosey hitting it well, wants the majors, and looks unbothered by the WD last week.

  • Pendrith ball striking seems in line with the stats, not all the way there. 

  • Johnny Cats (John Catlin) is an absolute pro, expect him to grind out a cut 

  • Rory looks like he's played here before! Genuinely so comfortable, so good, it's Rory at Quail, not breaking any news but it’s a joy to watch.

  • Sami V nukes it, but will run it to trouble too often 

  • Bryson just absolutely cruising off the tee. He does not even touch full send mode anymore. He just dials in fairways while still hitting it by pretty much everyone. Has such a head start here, but just not sure how much I trust the rest of the game at these prices!

  • Hadwin & Taylor play a very similar game and both hit fairways. Not sure either of them has a chance but it would come down to whoever can stripe the long irons the best. Would lean Taylor.

  • Eugenio with some of the most serious flush I have seen, extremely long and a great value play across the board. 

  • Good signs from Tone last week and he looked solid today, driving it long and straight and the long irons were solid, surely a Tone course.

  • Rambo flushes hard and it sounds different. Looked better yesterday but I am more in than out on him this week.

  • Believe Matt Wallace WDd from an event recently, he was not swinging today just chipping and putting 

  • Scottie hits it where Ted asks, not a hard game. Simple, easy, elite as always. 

  • Hodges not nearly as much pop as I saw him have early on this season, injury related

  • Maverick playing with JT / Max followed by SVP & Stanford Steve. He wants to be in with the big names and knows he can compete. Another week in which he stays / looks extremely confident. I will keep banging the Mav drum.

  • A true masterclass from Ludvig off the tee. Long irons did in fact look improved but something seems off. That said, I do feel better on him than I did early in the week.

  • Pat dressed in all black on Wednesday, serious business. Not as dialed as he was yesterday 

  • Jimmy Walks is going for B Wu fairway record 

  • Cam Davis’ ball striking has been an issue for sometime, looks that way again which is a shame.

  • Again, better things from Burns but nothing in terms of being able to win yet

  • Min Woo is driving it beyond measure, potentially filming a hype video though. Everyone was signing for this little girl but Min Woo said, “Sorry guys, I would love too but I have a tournament to play.” As focused as ever.

  • Vegas simply makes sense around Quail, driving it well

  • Joseph Bramlett loves a big Bermuda track, FRL dark horse 

  • Xander looks better on approach, not sure there's a world he figures out the driver over 72 holes, it's a real issue 

  • Kurt absolutely nukes it. Miles ahead of some guys, stripe show.

  • Collin, one of the few to keep it in control with a wedge from the rough, looks good off the tee and some serious prep from Greiner. 

  • Spaun looks more comfortable off the tee than he did last week. Could be one of the “shorter guys” to spike with the long irons and play well 

  • Rico can set a record for highest discrepancy between ball striking and short game this week

  • Smalley is a flushers flusher, no surprise and we are on Bermuda

  • Ryo remains solid off the tee, see Tuesday report for full thoughts

  • Mike Kim still not swinging 

  • Wyndy looked far better than he did last week, power fades for days. Not rocket science, it's a Wyndham track but he did look very frustrated with the approach play. Driver-putter is the recipe.

  • Patton does not look dialed anywhere 

  • Chris Kirk struggling still, only hope is Bermuda 

  • Homa is back to doing media related things, which is good for him. Usually shines in the light and definitely looks confident around Quail

  • P Reed stays looking solid and confident 

  • CY looked as confident as I’ve seen him. New caddie vibes were strong last week, and could potentially be building momentum.

  • Ball striking from Willy Z looks back in tact, tap in birdie on 18, easy hole. Serious prep, surely a Will Z track. 

  • Worry a tad about the right miss + lack of distance for Novak

  • Sepp stays in control with the approach play, looks all around ready 

  • Posty telling a fan he wishes he had more distance this week

Boots Power Rankings: The theme remains, “not rocket science”

  1. Rory 

  2. Scottie 

  3. JT

  4. Bryson 

  5. Min Woo

Random Thoughts

Monday Report

Tuesday Report

  • Hideki and Ryo always an elite P Round combo. (And Pavs! International AF)

  • J Day mentoring Elvis Smylie  

  • Kessler (Reed caddy, listen to the pod) came up to me and said “Strokes gained: Dog, we needed that on Sunday in Korea”. Generational moment.

  • X, Pat, Sam B, Scottie. Best of best boys.

Wednesday Report

  • Cleeks branding and gear is the definition of simple and clean.

  • Pendy, Nicky T, Hadwin… no Conners with Team Canada.

  • CD talking about the Aussie Open, we know where his focus is.

  • Sammy Steves asked me “how’s your charting going?” He may or may not be the first golfer sponsored by Vincent AI

  • Alex Smalley + Ryo P Round is Wyndham AF. False alarm, Smalley asked to play alone. Checks out. 

  • Rory & Keita, Taylormade poster of generational OTT play. 

  • Love the fact Lud plays with two club pros, the kid just wants to golf

  • “What are you writing in the Boots Report? It's wet?” - Willy

  • Pat, X, Collin group take as much time as they want on the greens. They just do it because they can. Egregious amount of chipping and putting, the groups behind are pissed.

  • Sepp, Posty, Kizzire, Kirk. Boys

  • Wyndham walking up to the tee on 9. “If this is into the wind, what do you do,”