2023 PLAYERS Championship
TPC Sawgrass
The Basics
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Designers: Dye
Yardage: 7,257
Par: 72 (4 Par 3s, 10 Par 4s, 4 Par 5s)
Greens: Bermuda
Recent Winners: 2022 Smith (-13 | +3000), 2021 Thomas (-14 | +2000), 2019 McIlroy (-16 | +1200), 2018 Simpson (-18 | +6000), 2017 Kim (-10 | +40000), 2016 Day (-15 | +1000)
Key Stat: Since 2006 every winner has previously gained strokes around the greens at Sawgrass.
Many will claim that the PLAYERS (okay that’s the last time I’m writing the all caps) is one of the most difficult tournaments to handicap all year. With every winner since the return to March being under 30/1 that may not be entirely true but they have one thing correct. The route to victory at Sawgrass has more potential paths than any of the game’s most prestigious titles.
This is best summarized by the fact that two of the last four winners led the field T2G, while the other two winners led the field in putting. The winners that led the field T2G (JT & Rory) ranked 42nd and 47th putting, while the winners that led the field in putting (Cam & Webb) ranked 35th and 19th T2G.
But, when we double click into these outcomes we see two key areas that bind these varying champions together - around the green and approach play.
As tends to be the case, the numbers tell the story over the 25 rounds leading into their wins:
Cam Smith: +0.4 ARG, +0.7 APP
JT: +0.3 ARG, +1.3 APP
Rory: +0.3 ARG, +0.7 APP
Webb: +0.5 ARG, +0.6 APP
These strong baselines arriving at Sawgrass translated and paid dividends.
Cam, JT, and Rory all gained over six shots on approach (ranking 5th, 5th, and 6th) en route to their titles and while Webb actually lost strokes on approach he ranked 7th on the week in GIR %. Simpson demonstrated that an elite putter can overcome somewhat poor proximity but even the white hot putting route this week requires a high green in regulation rate. The capability to deliver that will show up in recent approach numbers.
But, even the most exquisite of approach play performances will not get the job done without deft play around the greens. Again, the numbers tell the story as every Players champion in the strokes gained era (2004) was positive ARG on the week of their victories. And, as we zoom in on this aspect, another interesting thread appears amidst all the volatility of this event.
The mounds, hollows, and bunkers around the Sawgrass surfaces are extremely unique. The importance of proper leaves on the four reachable Par 5s is also key as capitalizing on the 5s is paramount.
Experience in handling this aspect of the test shines through in the historical ARG performances of players that ended up becoming Players champions. Since 2006 every winner had previously gained strokes around the greens at Sawgrass. So not only did they gain strokes in the week of their titles they had done so at Sawgrass previously. ARG performance is notoriously fickle to predict but this history is a golden nugget in our handicapping efforts this week.
You can access every player in the fields historical ARG results by year at TPC Sawgrass since 2017 by clicking here.
So, at risk of over simplification, let’s summarize these last few paragraphs:
The winner this week is going to be an elite approach player, with a proven ability to gain strokes around the greens at Sawgrass. They can either compliment this with great driving (to complete the T2G path) or with great putting (to complete the putting path).
Still a volatile handicap, but we’re getting closer to some consistent threads to follow. And, we also have the benefit of almost every main contender having just competed at Bay Hill last week.
Carrying success from Bay Hill to Sawgrass has been common in recent years as the events are played in close succession, but the fields have often lacked enough cross over to be a key handicapping element. This is of course not the case this year as API has risen to designated status.
Last year’s Players was extremely hampered by weather conditions impacting the draw but we only need to turn to 2021 to see how players have ridden the wave from Bay Hill to Sawgrass.
In that year the Top 3 at Bay Hill were Bryson, Westwood, and Conners. Bryson would go on to finish 3rd at Sawgrass, Westwood 2nd, and Conners 7th. Justin Thomas didn’t play at Bay Hill in 2021, but he did finish T15 at Concession - another Florida golf course - in his final start ahead of the Players.
In 2019, Rory would win the Players a week after finishing T6 at Bay Hill. And, Fleetwood would parlay a T3 at Bay Hill into a T5 at Sawgrass.
From 2007-2018 the event was played in May, but this history of a strong Florida performance immediately prior to a March triumph at Sawgrass rings true even as we hop in the wayback machine.
In 2006, Stephen Ames finished T7 at PGA National ahead of his Players win. 2005 saw Fred Funk finish T23 at Bay Hill before his Players victory, and in 2004 Adam Scott went T3 at Bay Hill prior to lifting the title at Sawgrass.
In a week of complexity, the simple tactic of riding players who performed well last week at Bay Hill - or even at Honda the week prior - is likely to be extremely beneficial.
Building our Model
We’re always hopeful that the correlations across winners and the Top 20 finishing positions overlap, which they most certainly do here. When that is the case it makes it quite easy to figure out what we want to include in the model, and largely this model shares similar characteristics to the one we made last year when Cam Smith ranked 3rd.
The approach distributions point to the challenges at Sawgrass, which ultimately call upon nearly every club in the bag. When that is the case I tend to trust standard SG APP over any specific range, but we do see some correlations that are both interesting for the model and just a general deeper look when we narrow down our list of potential plays.
Let’s take a look at the model components.
ShotLink Weights:
Par 5 Scoring (17%)
This might be the strongest correlation we’ll see all year as the average Par 5 scoring rank on Tour of the winners here since 2016 is 7th. If you can’t capitalize on these scoring holes, you’re in for a very long week.
Bogey Avoidance (13%)
It’s March which means “survive and advance” will be a popular term on the hardwoods, and it’s much the same here. Winners here have ranked 11th on Tour in this category on average since 2016.
Scrambling (9%)
Shares many characteristics with bogey avoidance, but can help identify players who may not hit as many greens as those ranking highly in bogey avoidance do. The last six winners have all been Top 30 in this department.
BoB % 175-200 Yards (9%)
Again we don’t want to worry too much about any specific range this week, but the correlation across winners here is notable enough to justify inclusion.
Strokes Gained Weights:
PUTT (11%), ARG (13%), APP (20%), OTT (9%)
Instead of expanding too much on this here I’d just read through the opening section of this post. We’re looking for elite approach play with solid short games and this will elevate those types of players.
Overall the 14% of strokes gained OTT at Sawgrass for winners since 2016 is among the lowest on Tour, and subsequently it’s one of our lowest OTT weights of the year.
Model Results & Some Notes
Follow this link to find the Players model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.
Rory
Turned a T6 at API into a Players win in 2019, and certainly the player most likely to lead this field T2G. Comes here off the T2 last week, but the putter is cold and it hasn’t tended to heat up at Sawgrass.
Rahm
Is Bay Hill a throw away result or the sign of a downturn as some of the SG Luck runs out?
Finau
Absolutely miserable ARG here historically, and would have to overcome two decades of trends in that area to win. But, if you’re willing to take that on it makes sense.
Scheffler
I’d bet everything I own he wins this event at some point in his career. But, can he do so this year without the high finish most winners have in their pocket at Sawgrass before breaking through?
Cantlay
Homa
Im
Xander
Officially on the do not bet list after last week. If and when he wins the big one, I will be watching from the sideline.
Tom Kim
History says a first time starter is toast, but much the same could have been said of Kurt last week.
Day
No one wanted to bet Day at 80/1 a few weeks ago, but now he’s hammered in the 30s. Those trends tend to pay the bonuses of sportsbook executives, but of course he makes sense this week.
Morikawa
One of a handful of elite ball strikers this week who have the weight of history to overcome on and around these greens.
Zalatoris
See Morikawa and Finau.
Thomas
For the first time in recent weeks I can support a bet on JT at 20/1 but I will miss out if it comes home. It’s getting closer for JT and he loves this place, but the approach play was better coming in here in 2021.
Fitzpatrick
Looked much better last week after some concerns around a neck injury, but probably lacks the approach play to win here. Starting to trend however, and showed in 2022 his intent to be in the mix in all of the game’s biggest events.
Kuchar
Hatton
Theegala
KH Lee
Clark
Wise
Spieth
Pain.
Hadwin
Hideki
You’d be rich if you’d have shorted Hideki six months ago as he now goes off near triple digit prices. Can’t continue trending down forever right?
Mitchell
Fleetwood
Cole
Si Woo
Would be jarring to see Si Woo join the pantheon of two time winners at Sawgrass, but at 70/1 he’s probably the most live long shot on the board once again. He just has his spots.
Hoge
Hovland
Svensson
Betting Card
Welp after a successful week of weather touting last week, I’m glad to say we don’t need to try it again this week as things look promising on that front. Light winds are always in play at Sawgrass, and the chance for a sprinkle on Friday night may soften the conditions come the weekend. But, by and large, everyone will feel they are in play with the draw.
The story of the betting board is pretty much exactly the same as it has been in each of these designated events. We’ve got the BIG 3 (Rahm, Scottie, Rory) below 11/1 and then the normal suspects between 18/1 - 30/1. The game is picking among those if you aren’t going to the top of the board, and it’s worth noting that each winner since the move to March has been below 30/1. That is only a three year history of course, but the volatility at Sawgrass still has tended to deliver lower priced winners over the last decade.
Of course, we saw what Kurt did last week and Si Woo pulled off one of the great upsets in golf history here in 2017. So, I’m certainly not going to definitively say the door is shut down the board but major championships and major-esque events so rarely deliver the big prices we know and love. If it happens in consecutive weeks we’ll start to reconsider but it’s important to recognize the type of player who pulled off the shocker last week. Kurt had knocked on the door against marquee players at multiple moments over the last year, and some random person just popping up this week or in any huge event is exceedingly rare.
With that, we’ve gone with a four man card after last week’s heart breaking performance from Spieth. The gambling gods almost never owe us, but I’d happily take a winner here at Sawgrass instead of API, so if that is their plan it’s fine with me. Here is the card:
Patrick Cantlay 18/1
Here we go again. Cantlay always makes sense in these moments, and he almost always delivers something catastrophic. However, I’ll take the leap once more.
There’s really no point in listing off all the statistical reasons (Par 5 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, etc) that he makes sense here, because those are largely true every year he’s shown up. So, why now?
I see two main reasons:
1) The early season equipment changes he made are starting to shine though OTT. He’s driving the ball at career best levels, and will have a distinct advantage here on a week where rumors are the rough is considerably more lush than in years past.
2) This will be the first time he’s arrived with some immediate Florida reps under his belt. Normally he plays a heavy west coast schedule before the Players, but this year he arrives off of a quality T4 finish at Bay Hill. He ranked 3rd in the field T2G there, and we’ve seen multiple examples of players delivering strong T2G results at Sawgrass off the back of similar outputs at Bay Hill. He led the field T2G at Riviera as well, and seeing that translate already in the Florida swing is extremely promising.
Plenty of success on Dye designs, and was off to a flying start here in 2020. Improved major results in the back half of 2022, and now time to breakthrough on the big stage.
Max Homa 24/1
I’ve been waiting for the right moment to deploy Max after another triumph together at Torrey, and here we go. On a week where winners have taken the divergent paths we discussed earlier it’s powerful to have a player that has both led fields in approach play (at API) and putting (at Riv) in recent weeks. Outside of Rory, there might not be a more well rounded player in the game right now.
He’s seen as a west coast specialist, but his breakthrough win came at Quail Hollow which has the highest number of overlap winners with TPC Sawgrass of any course in the last decade. And, he showed an affinity for this place last year finishing T13 from the horrible side of the draw.
2nd in the field in approach over the last 20 rounds, 4th in putting and a sniper of fairways in conditions like this. It really does feel like a lock for our third outright cash on Max, but we have a well known curse to overcome this week unfortunately. Due to that I can make no promises of even a made cut.
Sungjae Im 40/1
Another player where the numbers all make sense. 9th in scrambling, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 11th in bogey avoidance. Excellent around the greens and just about the best Florida putter on the planet. It’s not a question of the fit for Sungjae, it’s a question of when is he going to deliver another win.
I’m now firmly of the belief that he’s just as likely to win a significant title like this above 30/1 than he is to win some smaller event at 12/1. His best results of late have been in significant events, and the belief that he can’t win is largely driven by the fact that he plays so often and is so talented that theoretically he should be in the mix every week. I don’t know why he chooses to play the schedule he does, but it’s impossible to peak every week and he’s still a two-time winner at just 24 with a runner up and T8 at Augusta, as well a T2 at East Lake.
Looking to join a long list of winners at PGA National and Sawgrass.
Sahith Theegala 90/1
Theegala nearly won on two TPC designs last season, but it’s his consistency this year which is ever more impressive. Five Top 6 finishes on the campaign already, and displaying upside with his approach play that is nearly unmatched in the field. Only Rahm, Homa and Theegala have gained over 8 strokes on approach in multiple events in 2023 which speaks to the skill set we’re starting to see displayed regularly by the 25 year old.
Gained five strokes on the greens at Bay Hill, and over eight on the Bermuda at RSM. Also possesses one of the best short games on Tour already. His liability is OTT but we’ve seen players overcome that here, and he gained nicely at Bay Hill. A big task to overcome limited history here, but I think we’re looking at a future Top 5 player who is capable of breaking through at any venue.
As always, best of luck!
