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Betting Information
Statistical details on every team are available here: https://cbb.vincerix.com/stats
Game by game statistical breakdowns, odds movement and best lines will be available the day before tip-off for every Tournament game here: https://cbb.vincerix.com/
Betting selections from Adam will be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/vincerix_hoops
Bracket Strategic Overview
Picking a bracket is extremely difficult but there are some key things to keep in mind as you prepare to show all of your coworkers and friends whose boss. Here are some things to keep in mind:
You can’t win in the opening weekend.
So many more points are available in standard bracket contests for teams that advance to the Final Four that stressing over individual games early in the bracket isn’t of the most importance. It’s about finding the teams you trust to make a deep run and then working backwards from there.
It’s not necessarily about picks, it’s about leverage.
It’s not rocket science but the fewer competitors in your pool that have similar Final Four teams to you the better. Balancing risk/reward is the key and to do that I recommend selecting a couple of popular teams that you are going to “fade” and a couple under owned teams to ride. That strategy is discussed throughout this write up but for reference here are the current percentage of brackets selecting teams to win it all according to ESPN:
UCONN 25%, Houston 13%, UNC 10%, Purdue 10%, Arizona 5%, Iowa State 5%, Tennessee 4%, Kentucky 4%, Auburn 3%, Marquette 2%, Duke 2%, Creighton 2%, Illinois 2%
Pace. My favorite stat for finding teams to fade.
Since 2014 only two teams with Top 50 tempos have made the Final Four and roughly 75% of Final Four teams had adjusted tempos outside the Top 150. The game slows down in the tournament and the ability to play at a controlled pace is key. Every team last year was outside the Top 100 in pace and top teams like Alabama were great fades. Here are some popular selections who play at dangerously quick speeds:
Auburn 58th, Arizona 16th, Tennessee 79th, UNC 41st, Illinois 56th, Marquette 91st, Alabama 9th, Gonzaga 83rd, BYU 85th, Kentucky 11th, New Mexico 8th, Florida 18th, Kansas 92nd
Have you proven it on the road or at neutral sites?
All but one champion since 2010 had double digit road and neutral site wins prior to the Big Dance. Home court advantage is massive in college hoops and you need teams who have shown an ability to consistently perform away from home. Here are top seeds that haven’t won 10+ road and neutral site games:
Iowa State, Arizona, Duke, Creighton, Alabama, Kansas, Baylor and Kentucky.
The leaders in this category: UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn and UNC
The famous KenPom criteria to be champion is Top 40 Adjusted Offense and Top 22 Adjusted Defense. The teams who fit that this year: UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Tennessee, Auburn, UNC, and Marquette.
For thoughts on how to approach each region, read the Regional Strategic Overview in each section.
Bracket Breakdown
Each region is broken down individually and teams are ranked using the Vincerix Composite Index (the VCI) which weights a variety of leading statistical methods to put together the most holistic ranking in college basketball.
Adam’s thoughts are in black. Matt’s are in gold.
East Region
Regional Strategic Overview
The middle and bottom of this region is reasonably soft, but the top might be the most formidable of any region with UCONN, Iowa State, Auburn, and Illinois all legitimate Final Four contenders before the draw came out. Due to this it really doesn’t seem like the spot to advance many longshots deep into the regional with the top-heavy draw favoring a chalky Elite Eight. UCONN is obviously going to be the most selected team to win this region and the title. I love any chance to fade public opinion, but I can’t make a good faith argument to do so here. Not having UCONN advancing deep in the tournament would be an extremely risky strategy and they are as deserving of the hype as any recent overall #1 seed. Auburn and Iowa State can ask questions of the Huskies but it’s ultimately Auburn and Iowa State who will be most upset with this draw – not Dan Hurley and company playing in Brooklyn and Boston.
#16 Stetson (VCI #212)
The Hatters beat a Big 12 opponent (UCF) in November, which is a rarity for a 16 seed, and bring a relatively potent offensive attack to the table with 37% 3pt shooting.
Ceiling: 1st round. Every player on the floor has a career shooting night from beyond the arc, and there are a few minutes in the second half where UCONN feels a tad of nerves in Brooklyn.
Floor: 1st round.
DeLand, FL stand up! Hatters find themselves here by way of the ASun conference tournament. Sadler this will be there only game. Props to them though, first NCAA Tournament.
#15 South Dakota St (VCI #135)
A tricky first round opponent who brings Top 20 EFG% but will face one of the best defenses in the country in Iowa St. Riding the nation’s 5th longest winning streak – eight games – and make a second NCAA Tournament appearance in three years.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. Iowa State is an excellent team but rarely runs away from opponents and allow one of the highest 3pt attempt rates in the country. A hot shooting night from the Jackrabbits against the Cyclones is a recipe for an upset, and then Drake or WSU await who are far from the most threatening 7/10 seeds.
Floor: 1st round.
A team that will let it fly and run is always dangerous. This volatile play style can lead to upsets but if they are the slightest bit off, they will lose by 35+.
Ceiling: Win round one, Cover
Floor: Blown out
#14 Morehead St (VCI #116)
One of the best EFG% defenses in the country featuring a highly active style that keeps teams off the 3pt line and isolated.
Ceiling: 1st round. There was a world where this stingy Morehead defense could spring an upset but Illinois’ lethal offense spearheaded by one of the best players in the country is a very poor match up. The Eagles lead into the half and knock on the door late, but there’s too much Illini.
Floor: 1st round.
Morehead is back in the NCAA tournament after tying the OVC regular season and winning the tournament. They can truly run with Illinois in round one and I can see the upset happening.
Ceiling: Win round one, cover
Floor: Get blown out
#12 UAB (VCI #107)
The surprise winner of the American dances for the 2nd time in three years after falling as a 12 seed in 2021.
Ceiling: 2nd round. UAB is not the most threating of 12s in the infamous 5/12 matchup, but San Diego St isn’t the most menacing of 5 seeds either. This isn’t last year’s Aztec team and the Blazers are battled tested in the American which springs the opening round upset. Auburn is a different beast though standing in the way of any serious Cinderella story.
Floor: 1st round loss.
A combination of getting hot at the right time and getting a decent draw in the conference tournament. This team is volatile in a great way. The Blazers can run with a 1 seed or find a way to lose to a 16. They have played halves in which they have scored 50+ and followed that up with barely cracking 20.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#11 Duquesne (#90)
The Dukes dance for the first time in ages thanks to a huge turn around in the second half of the season and a shocking four game run to the A10 Tournament title last weekend. This team is the definition of rock fight basketball however with significant offensive issues and the A10 was far from impressive this year.
Ceiling: 1st round. I’m out on the Dukes. They cannot shoot and BYU is lethal on the offensive end. If VCU could shoot into the ocean they’d have beaten Duquesne in the A10 title game and I have a very hard time imagining a world where BYU goes cold enough to lose this game.
Floor: 1st round.
The Dukes got hot at the right time and made their way to the NCAA Tournament by winning the A10 Tournament. This is the first time they are in the tourney since 1977 and Pittsburgh is behind them. They are hot and can surely win a game. This team had tourney hopes last season and they let down, I am sure you will get a great effort from the Dukes here.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#13 Yale (#77)
The Ivy League has been potent in March in recent years, and Yale is likely under seeded here as demonstrated by their rank in the VCI. They didn’t do anything notable in the non-conference but the quality of play in the Ivy has to be respected, and the ball-control, low tempo Yale attack is an effective style for pulling upsets.
Ceiling: 1st round. The right opponent could be unnerved by Yale, but don’t think Auburn fits that description. Too much skill and too much depth from Auburn for an Ivy League level opponent.
Floor: 1st round.
A less than stellar season for Yale’s standards. They were never a top of the line Ivy team as Princeton over shadowed them all year. They find themselves here by way of Princeton getting upset in the Ivy League semi’s and star player Matt Knowling making a buzzer beater to get by Brown. This Yale team is not as good as Yale teams of the past.
Ceiling: Lead at halftime against Auburn
Floor: 25 point loss
#10 Drake (#49)
Drake and Tucker DeVries can score the basketball, but the question for the Bulldogs is what level of consistency they can deliver on the defensive side of the floor? Not overly battled tested as the highlight of the season statistically is a neutral floor win over Nevada and winning the Missouri Valley doesn’t carry the weight it once did.
Ceiling: 2nd round. I don’t like this Drake team much at all but WSU limped home in their final few games and aren’t the extremely high major athletes that would be a big problem for Drake. So, it’s a reasonable opening round draw. Finding a way by Iowa State though is a bridge too far though for a very average defensive unit.
Floor: 1st round.
Drake played from behind for a majority of the season but when it mattered most, they got the job done. Drake is a veteran team and has plans on moving to the second weekend. Tucker Devries can score from anywhere on the court, if he gets hot… look out.
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: Close game in round 1
#8 FAU (#49)
It was a roller coaster year for the Owls after a magical run to the cusp of the national title game last year. With basically the whole roster back expectations were quite high on Dusty May but the season’s highlights (beating Arizona and Texas A&M) were met with way too many lowlights (losing to four teams outside the VCI Top 100). I can cut them a bit of slack however as their eyes have always been on a return to March, and now here they are. It’s a strikingly familiar statistical profile to the one that worked so well last year in this tournament.
Ceiling: 2nd round. I love Dusty May and the Owls, but the path to another magical run just doesn’t seem anywhere close to as likely as what took place last year. They survived at the buzzer in the opening round and then avoided top seed Purdue in the second round. UCONN will be awaiting them in the second round this year, and sure Dusty can draw up a gameplan to keep it close but overwhelming Brooklyn support for UCONN is an extra factor if UCONN needs it.
Floor: 1st round.
Hot seat committee… Should FAU even be in? Some would argue. Either way, The Owls return the entire cast from last years Final Four squad but had a disappointing season by their standards. They struggled with “playing with their food”. By this, I mean they allowed lesser teams to stay in games or get big leads. They had to rely on a lot of late game heroics to win games this year.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#9 Northwestern (#42)
Injuries have lowered the ceiling on a fun Northwestern team led by one of the nation’s most dynamic guards in Boo Buie. They shoot an eye watering 40% from the three point line as a team but that included Ty Berry who is now out for the year. It’s a team that at its best beat Purdue but this bunch has been weakened and looked a step below what it used to be in a Big 10 tournament loss to Wisconsin.
Ceiling: 2nd round. The Boo Buie show might be able carry Northwestern over FAU but it’s a season of what could have been for a healthy Wildcats team and there’s just not enough there to compete with UCONN over 40 minutes in Brooklyn.
Floor: 1st round.
Overall solid season in the Big Ten for The Wildcats but it will not be a long tourney for them. They started off strong then two of their starters went down late in the season. They hung on by a thread to make the big dance.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#7 Washington State (#40)
An unexpected tournament appearance for the Cougs and one of the best up and coming coaches in the country in Kyle Smith. It’s a well-coached and balanced team that has neither a massive strength or weakness which delivered a season sweep over Pac 12 Champion Arizona. That doesn’t carry quite as much weight as it would if Arizona had been more consistent this year and the best non-conference win for the Cougs is over Boise State. Limped home a bit with a home loss to Washington and a tournament loss to Colorado.
Ceiling: 2nd round. Drawing the winner of the Missouri Valley is pretty generous for the Cougs and Kyle Smith will have this squad focused in the opening round. But, if they do find their way by Drake then they get one of the best teams in the country who will have massive crowd support in Omaha.
Floor: 1st round.
Wazzu nearly won the Pac 12 regular season but I believe they are overrated. They caught some of the better teams in league on bad days and fell to some teams they should have beat.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#5 San Diego State (#25)
There’s plenty of statistical overlap with last year’s team that made a magical run to the title game and Jaedon LeDee is one of the best players in the country. Add in Lamont Butler and the excellent leadership of head coach Brian Dutcher and you can start to dream of an Aztec run once again. But this year’s squad lost more than twice as many games in conference – albeit in a record setting MWC – and failed to claim the MWC tournament title. Another team in this region – FAU – hoping that lightening strikes twice.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. They’ll be happy to draw UAB in the 5/12 and experience will be critical to avoid that opening round upset. Get by UAB and Auburn likely awaits who like the Aztecs prides themselves on the defensive end of the floor. Slow the game down against Auburn and get them into a defensive slugfest and there’s enough individual skill on the Aztecs roster to pull the upset. But UCONN in a title game re-match is too formidable for an SDSU team that can’t spread the floor with the 3pt shot.
Floor: 1st round loss.
National runner ups last year had an up and down season but overall strong one. They fought on a weekly basis in the extremely strong Mountain West. They do not have the firepower to make it back to the final, but they can make the second weekend for sure.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Lose round 1
#6 BYU (#16)
Mark Pope led BYU to a solid opening season in the Big 12 and the Cougars deploy one of the cleanest offensive attacks in the game. There are a number of 35%+ 3pt shooters on the floor at any given time for BYU, and unlike in their WCC days they have been tested every night by top level Big 12 competition. The Big 12 strength carries a lot of weight in their metrics but the wins on the resume are a tad light to put a ton of faith in an extended run. One of the most fun teams to watch no matter how they fare this month.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. If I had to draw up a path to make a run for BYU as a 6 seed, this is about as good as I could come up with. Duquesne is anemic on the offensive end and then you get a shootout against Illinois where the best shooters on the floor with be wearing BYU jerseys. The 2 seed who would likely await them is Iowa State – a fellow Big 12 opponent that BYU beat by double digits in January.
Floor: 2nd round loss. If BYU loses to Duquesne then this entire season is a fraud and the Big 12 overall should be given fraud points. They have to advance to the 2nd round.
Although potentially under seeded… they have a nice matchup against Duquesne. BYU had a nice first year in the BIG 12. They're roster did not have any recruits up to B12 standards but they made it happen as a team.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Lose round 1
#3 Illinois (#12)
An excellent season for the Illini was highlighted with a Big 10 Tournament title behind the standout play of one of the best players in the country – Terrance Shannon Jr. But, it’s far from a one man show for a sparkling offensive attack that ranks 3rd nationally with a variety of scoring threats including Marcus Domask who is a nightmare to guard in isolation and Coleman Hawkins is an NBA stretch forward who can do damage on both ends. Brad Underwood has underachieved in March with the Illini and has yet to make the Sweet 16 in his first three tournament appearances at Illinois, but this group has the makeup to do something special.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. There’s plenty of scoring on this roster to get Illinois into their first Sweet 16 under Brad Underwood and having excellent playmakers in Shannon and Domask provide a rip cord that Illinois can pull in the likely event they are tested in the opening rounds. A Sweet 16 clash with Iowa State would pit elite defense versus elite offense and there’s a reasonable argument that you’d take offense in March. A first Final Four for Illinois since 2005 is the dream but ultimately hard to take a team that is without a Top 10 VCI win on the season to clear all the hurdles to pull it off.
Floor: 2nd round loss. A first-round loss to Morehead would be entirely inexcusable and serious questions of Underwood’s performance in March would be in order. I trust this Illinois team to take care of opening round business, but BYU is a coin flip game that would shock no one if the Cougars come out on top in a shootout.
The Illini dealt with a ton of drama but found themselves winning the Big Ten tourney and finding the three line. Truly, I do not believe they should be this high but they have the fire power to get hot. Marcus Domask is a name to keep an eye on that goes under the radar. Can get absolutely scorched earth from deep
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Sweet 16
#4 Auburn (#12)
Bruce Pearl once again has assembled a fantastic roster and brings one of the deepest teams in the tournament to the table. The Tigers play the 8th most bench minutes in the country and effectively have two entire starting lineups which allows for a feverish attack on both ends of the floor. They took care of business in three favored matchups in the SEC Tournament after the draw opened up for them to lift the trophy, but still remain without a Top 10 VCI win entering the Dance. They’ve won all but one game by double digits so when they win they tend to roll, which could be seen as a positive (don’t let teams hang around) or a negative (not tested in super close games). A red flag with their pace ranking 58th in the country, and interestingly Pearl’s Final Four team in 2019 ranked 155th in pace which would be much more what we’re looking for.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. Realistically Auburn should be expected to move through the opening two rounds rather comfortably with SDSU capable of putting up a big fight but Auburn’s depth has to be able to lead them to the Sweet 16. At that point though it becomes hard to pick them to get by UCONN when the resume is void of a marquee win even in the realm of where beating UCONN would rank. The roster is capable of a deeper run but the draw doesn’t support it.
Floor: 2nd round loss. I expect them to beat SDSU if that is the match up but the Aztecs are more than capable of ending an Auburn run before it can really begin.
The Tigers got hot at the right time and snagged the SEC Tourney crown. They were a top ten team for a good majority of the season but had their flaws. Big man Johni Broome is a matchup problem for nearly every team. The back court is very volatile but they are on, Auburn is a tier 1 team.
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: Sweet 16
#2 Iowa State (#4)
Iowa State had a legit argument to be a 1 seed and instead they get the 2 seed and likely must face UCONN in Boston. That’s a tough break but the best defense in the country combined with timely three-point shooting and elite PG play from Tamin Lipsey are real contenders to shock UCONN and make their way to the Final Four. The ceiling for the Cyclones was on display in the Big 12 Tournament where they routed Houston in a game that could have been a 40-point victory for Iowa State. They simply out-Houstoned Houston and demonstrated a freer flowing offensive attack than Houson. TJ Otzelberger led Iowa State to the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed in 2022 and he’s now a serious contender for National Coach of the Year with the potential to become a household name this month.
Ceiling: Title game. The offensive metrics are lacking for the Cyclones but they find a way to hit big shots when they need them most. The defense travels and TJ is a serious weapon on the sidelines in a tournament format as displayed last week. They’re certainly the most accomplished team outside of UCONN in this region, and the expectation should be a trip to at least the Elite Eight. Their lack of size is an issue against the Huskies but there’s a swagger about this bunch and if you can beat Houston twice then who am I to say you can’t find your way by UCONN with elite defense?
Floor: 1st round loss. I genuinely think the 1st round is a bigger threat to Iowa State than the 2nd round and the streaky three-point shooting of South Dakota State is tricky. Obviously Iowa State should advance, but fresh off the deep Big 12 Tournament run they’re going to have to be alert.
Defense wins championships. The Big 12 post season champs find themselves on the 2 line. The defense is elite, but I am not sure they have the offensive fire power to reach the final four.
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: Round of 32
#1 UCONN (#2)
A perfectly constructed roster, coached to perfection. A team that features one of the best PGs in the country, one of the best centers in the country, one of the best shooters in the country, and a variety of NBA ready wings. There’s depth off the bench (especially at the guard positions) and they play with the fire of Dan Hurley every single night. Their only loss in 2024 came at Creighton who shot the lights out and I don’t really see a path to beating them that doesn’t involve an out of body three point shooting performance from the opponent. The hype is real and the hype is deserved.
Ceiling: National Champions. It’s championship or bust for this team and despite a surprisingly top-heavy draw they get to play the entire region in Brooklyn and Boston. The Husky faithful will be out in force and they’ll be comfortable favorites against every team they play until the title game.
Floor: Elite Eight. Auburn is a formidable Sweet 16 foe and the threat of foul trouble on the interior would concern me a bit against the Auburn depth. But, UCONN would just be able to match up smaller with NBA wings and the Huskies are considerably more battle tested to a point I just don’t see Auburn pulling it off if they meet. Iowa State on the other hand has proven the ability to beat a title contender twice in Houston and the upset there wouldn’t completely shock me.
Defending National Champs looking to repeat. Have the infrastructure but do not believe this years team is better than last years team.
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: Sweet 16
South Region
Regional Strategic Overview
It feels a bit like Houston and the long shots here with clear flaws among the next teams after Houston in the region, and some intriguing SEC teams further down the list (Florida and Texas A&M) who have the pieces for deep runs. I think there’s two tactics to take here – one is to ride Houston to the Final Four and then hop off or try to generate a ton of leverage and fade Houston early with a second round upset loss to A&M. Either way I won’t be taking Houston to win it all due to glaring offensive deficiencies, so if you’re following that line of thinking it’s just a question of how much risk/reward you want to take on based on when you have them losing. Chasing chalky names like Duke and Kentucky would be ill advised IMO.
#16 Longwood (#160)
Longwood is the best 16 seed in the tournament by far, but Houston takes joy in destroying Sub 100 level competition so tough luck.
Ceiling: 1st round. I will be genuinely surprised if they cover the spread.
Floor: 1st round.
Longwood is another team who got hot at the right time. They were playing from behind for a majority of the conference season. Tough matchup with Houston
Ceiling: Maybe score the first basket? Thats a win for Longwood.
Floor: Lose by more than infinity
#15 Western Kentucky (#134)
The Hilltoppers play the fastest pace in the country and first year coach Steve Lutz continues his ascendence after back-to-back tournament appearances at Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Could they catch Shaka sleeping in a first-round game once again? Maybe.
Ceiling: 2nd round. I don’t trust Shaka in March and Marquette decides they are going to play open gym with WKUs tempo they could get burned.
Floor: 1st round.
WKU finished four games back in The CUSA and lost their final four regular season games. They clicked in the conference tournament and ended up winning The CUSA. They face a vulnerable Marquette team who has been missing their best player for some time now. They should be free flowing and leave nothing behind.
Ceiling: Lead at halftime, cover against Marquette
Floor: Get blown out.
#14 Oakland (#132)
It’s been 13 years since Greg Kampe has led the Golden Grizzlies to the Big Dance and they bring an offensive attack that could at least ask questions of a suspect Kentucky defense.
Ceiling: 1st round. Sure, the Kentucky defense is woeful at times but no one on Oakland is stopping anyone on Kentucky.
Floor: 1st round.
Oakland has the most tenured coach in the entire tournament and team that can run with almost anyone. They have elite guard play and a forward in Trey Townsend who can take over a game. They will play extremely free and they truly have more tournament reps than this young Kentucky team.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Blown out in round 1
#13 Vermont (#103)
A third straight tournament appearance for the Catamounts and sixth overall for John Becker who is yet to pull an opening round upset. Defense is the calling card and Vermont will hope to lull Duke to sleep with one of the slowest paces in the country.
Ceiling: 2nd round. I don’t think they actually pull this off, but Duke is suspect this year and Vermont is bound to breakthrough one of these years with how often they’re here.
Floor: 1st round.
Vermont is one of the most consistent mid major teams in the nation. Truly, I believe this is one of the lesser UVM teams of late and I do not believe they have the upside to move on in this tournament.
Ceiling: Cover in round 1
Floor: Get blown out
#11 North Carolina State (#60)
The Wolfpack pulled off one of the most shocking runs in conference tournament history to win the ACC and earn a ticket to the dance. They had done absolutely nothing of note all season, and their performance in DC is borderline inexplicable. How much gas can possibly be left in the tank?
Ceiling: Sweet 16. This is simply the ride them while they’re hot theory and neither Texas Tech nor Kentucky are world beaters this year. If this improbable three-point shooting continues then they can continue the magical run. Do I think this is likely to happen? No. Can it? They shouldn’t even be here so sure why not.
Floor: 1st round. The magic runs out.
ACC Champion, bid stealers, NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack won their final five games which included wins over Duke and NC State. They are arguably one of the hottest teams in the nation and not the 11 seed anyone would want to face.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round 1 loss
#12 James Madison (#54)
The Dukes jumped onto people’s radars with a season opening win at Michigan State and carried the momentum all year behind a balanced offensive and defensive system. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone, especially Wisconsin, but this is the type of 12 seed that has made the 5/12 upset famous.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. I’m not going to hype JMU too much because I’m not as high on them as consensus and overall, you aren’t going to get much leverage in your bracket riding a trendy 12/5 pick. But sure, they can beat a volatile Wisconsin squad and maybe Vermont beats Duke making them favorites in the second-round battle. It’s not the likely outcome by any stretch of the imagination, but JMU can reach the second weekend.
Floor: 1st round.
JMU got out the gates early and had a decent season in conference but nothing special. They did enough to make it here but they are running into a hot Wisconsin team.
Ceiling: Cover in round 1
Floor: Get blown out in round 1
#9 Texas A&M (#46)
Two things happen when the Aggies play – Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford go off and they are almost unbeatable or those two are contained and they have no shot. When it’s clicking it’s tough to beat and they have notable wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, and twice over Kentucky. They crash the offensive glass harder than any team in the country and if they get matchups against poor rebounding teams they will win. A wildcard team.
Ceiling: Final Four. This is obviously a longshot scenario but if you wanted a playing style to make a magical run it would be elite guard play and excellent offensive rebounding. That is exactly who Texas A&M is. They nearly beat Houston earlier this year and both Nebraska and Houston are vulnerable on the defensive glass. If they make the second weekend the heat check kings of Taylor and Radford might be too hot to slow down.
Floor: 1st round. All the good things I described above don’t happen which is the 50/50 reality for this ball club and why they’re ranked where they are.
This team had hopes of winning the SEC and being a 2-3 seed to start the year but that was not the case. They figured some things out late in the season and will not go out easy.
Ceiling: Cover against Houston
Floor: Round 1 loss
#10 Boise State (#46)
A surprising spot in the play-in game for Boise State who makes a third straight tournament appearance. Like many of the six MWC teams it will be a question of fraud or not and Boise State will be the second litmus test after Colorado State debuts on Tuesday night. Worth gauging the Colorado State result to assess how the MWC looks early.
Ceiling: 1st round. They can beat Colorado for sure, but I’m not taking Boise State against Florida. Boise State never looks good in the tournament and Florida is for real.
Floor: Play-in loss.
Boise has a very solid season in the Mountain West. Like all the MW teams, they did not get respected by the committee. Boise has their work cut out for them but are well rounded and solid enough to win multiple games.
Ceiling: Round of 32
Floor: Play in loss
#10 Colorado (#29)
KJ Simpson is one of the best PGs in the country and Cody Williams is one of the most highly touted freshmen entering the draft after this season. The pieces are there for Tad Boyle with a team shooting 40% from three despite a surprising reluctance to shoot it from deep. Overall a pretty barren resume in the marquee win department and I’m somewhat miffed at how they even got into the Dance.
Ceiling: 1st round. Probably can battle Florida more tightly than Boise State but still find the upside limited.
Floor: Play-in.
The Buffs nearly won the Pac 12 and find themselves in the play in. They should feel disrespected and motivated to take care of business. This team can run with nearly anyone in this bracket but must get by this tough test first.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Close loss to Boise
#8 Nebraska (#27)
A breakout year for Fred Hoiberg at Nebraska with a balanced attack that led to a marquee home win over Purdue in January. Keisei Tominaga will be the story for the Huskers but at best that story will only last for a game.
Ceiling: 2nd round. If Texas A&M is asleep at the wheel Nebraska will pounce and roll into the 2nd round but they’re out manned against Houston.
Floor: 1st round.
What a season for The Huskers. They made noise all season long in the Big Ten and were an absolute problem at home. They play very hard on both sides of the ball and can get very hot from deep
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#7 Florida (#24)
A lot of the SEC teams have the potential to make runs but also have lacked enough consistency that any outcome is plausible. This is especially true of Florida who at times looks unbeatable with excellent guard play and a myriad of interior threats, but also was capable of losing to lowly Vanderbilt in the final game of the regular season. A team that you don’t want to play but also one that any top-level opponent would expect to overcome.
Ceiling: Final Four. Similar story to Texas A&M and they beat Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament last weekend. If Kolek can’t return for Marquette then Florida will have more than a coin flip chance in that game, and they already won at Kentucky. The draw sets up nicely to make a deep run before facing Houston, and Florida has the athletes to match up with rugged Houston.
Floor: 2nd round. Too much talent not to win a game in this tournament despite the gruesome loss of some interior depth with Handlogten’s injury on Sunday.
The Gators made it all the way to the SEC Championship but lost their big man in the final. They have a great cast of transfer guards that they will need to lean on in a big way now that Handlogten is down.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 1 loss
#6 Texas Tech (#24)
A highly effective debut season for Grant McCasland and another of the mid-level Big 12 teams who will carry the torch for the conference this month. They didn’t pick up any spectacular wins in conference but did more than enough to earn a spot in the Dance. It’s a team with steady play on both ends of the court but without a ton of firepower to get overly excited about and some mounting injury concerns.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. North Carolina State has no business in the Dance and there’s enough 3pt shooting on the roster to keep pace with Kentucky. McCasland is a talented up and coming coach which can lead a team to a Sweet 16 but think he needs to come back in the future with a better roster to take it deeper.
Floor: 1st round. The fairy tale North Carolina State run is too much to overcome.
Texas Tech had an up and down season but finished very strong. They found themselves on the 6 line but have a tough matchup with NC State. I do not believe Texas Tech has a player with the X Factor to lean on throughout the tournament.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Lose round 1
#5 Wisconsin (#20)
The Badgers were a roller coaster this year with a slow start to the year, followed by a hot streak that saw a win over Marquette, followed by losing eight of their last 11 regular season games, followed by a run to the Big 10 title game with a win over Purdue. Greg Gard believes the Big 10 title run version of this team is the real version, and if that’s the case they’re a threat to everyone in the region. But, the defense is suspect ranking 275th in EFG %.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. There’s no one overly intimidating they can face in the opening two rounds with Duke very average and James Madison a concern but still it’s James Madison. I definitely don’t trust this Wisconsin team but at their best they’re a second weekend unit. Getting by Houston is a tough ask for any version of this Badger team though.
Floor: 1st round. If the bad version of Wisconsin shows up they’ll be done instantly.
Hot start, horrendous middle, hot finish. The Badgers knocked off Purdue and nearly won the Big Ten. They are a team I loved pre season and seem to have found their groove again.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round of 32
#3 Kentucky (#18)
This is truly one of the most lethal shooting teams you’re ever going to see, and they can put up 100 points every time they play. Sheppard, Dillingham and Reeves can all shoot the lights out from the perimeter, and they have size on the interior. This team should be fantastic. But the defense is a massive liability. They are incapable of defending off the dribble. They are not capable of doing it. I want to believe that they can defend consistently enough to make a deep run because this offense is phenomenal, but I have been proven wrong on them too many times to believe it makes sense to ride with the masses on a deep Wildcats run.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. They can outscore everyone in the bottom of this region, but Houston is a horrible match up for the Calipari’s bunch and they play much too rapid of a pace to support a Final Four run.
Floor: 2nd round. It really might be 1st round because any opponent that gets going offensively can beat them. I don’t think there is any leverage on Kentucky in your bracket and if I get beat because Kentucky finally learns how to play defense then fine, so be it.
Extremely high ceiling, extremely low floor. Kentucky is very young and just recently lost as big favorites. UK has failed in the NCAA Tourney over the last few years but has one of the most talented squads this year. They lack experience and it will be up to Cal to right the ship on these boys.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 1 loss
#2 Marquette (#11)
The crucial question for Marquette is what the health status is for Tyler Kolek who missed the last couple of games of the regular season and all of the Big East Tournament. Now the positive for Marquette is they made a run to the Big East title game without him and played UCONN the toughest they have after two previous lopsided performances. The offense is highly efficient with Kolek at the helm, and they’re motivated after flaming out last year. The Shaka truthers will know he hasn’t made it out of the 2nd round since the VCU days and rightfully will want to see him prove it this year, however.
Ceiling: Final Four. It’s a team that lacks size and interior depth but they land in a region where they may be able to dodge some bullets on that front. If they can get by Florida which will be extremely testing then the Elite Eight should await. Spread the floor and hope Kolek has a record setting night and just maybe there’s a path by Houston.
Floor: 1st round. Shaka can always lose in the 1st round.
Marquette has been dealing with injuries but they should get their guy in Tyler Kolek back for the tournament. Hopefully, they do not deal with any rust and just hit the ground running because they have their eyes set on winning it all.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 2 loss
#4 Duke (#10)
This Duke team is a bit fraudulent and has been most of the year. Filipowski is hit and miss, and the guard play of Roach, McCain, and Proctor is a trio of promise but too often disappointment. They were swept by UNC and suffered a home loss to Pittsburgh. There are a lot of red flags with this Duke team despite balanced metrics, and I’d advise against being overly drawn into the name on the front of these jerseys.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. The bracket must fall apart for them to make a deeper run than this because Houston will feast on this Duke group that has lacked toughness in crucial moments this season.
Floor: 1st round.
Everyone is counting out Duke, which is scary. They are a great combination of veteran leadership and young studs. Clearly, Duke is still Duke and has every making to make a run.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round of 32
#1 Houston (#1)
Houston showed up in the Big 12 and dominated in their first year picking up a regular season conference title. That is extremely impressive, and Kelvin Sampson deserves more praise than he is getting for the work done this year. It’s the culmination of years of building defensive minded teams and this is his best one yet ranking extremely well across the defensive metrics. The difference maker this year has been Jamal Shead at the PG position who is capable of scoring at all three levels and carrying the load when the offense goes cold. But, the fact the offense goes so cold is a big concern and we saw that when they got trounced by Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. I simply don’t believe there is enough offense for this to be a genuine national title contender. They should be favored to make it out of this region for sure but there aren’t enough weapons on the offensive end no matter how special the defense is in my opinion.
Ceiling: Title game. Their regional draw is quite favorable with a variety of teams that lack the toughness to match up with Houston. There was a world where they could really struggle to reach the Final Four, but they got some help with the draw. However, there are not enough offensive pieces to beat the very best teams in the country down the stretch in Phoenix. With nearly 13% of brackets choosing Houston right now, it is an easy pass for me. I’d rather have UCONN at 25% if you’re taking one of the favorites.
Floor: 2nd round loss. Wade Taylor blacks out and drops 40.
My pick to win it all. This Houston team is different in my opinion. They have dealt with speed bumps and adversity whereas Houston teams of the past just cruised through the AAC. The offense is not the driving force but the guards can truly take over if they need to. Defensively, they are second to none and will rebound the hell out of the ball on both ends.
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Final Four
West Region
Regional Strategic Overview
This is the weakest region at the very top and it’s one of the most interesting in the middle. Due to that I believe this is the spot to take some fliers and look for the team to make a Cinderella run to Phoenix. The options for that run range from Big 12 tested Baylor on the 3 line all the way down to MWC Champions New Mexico on the 11 line. Heck even GCU has the pieces to do something special in this part of the bracket. Quite simply, the “wild West” is a perfectly fair description of this regional.
#16 Wagner (#292) / Howard (#272)
A couple of teams who will get to enjoy the spotlight of being the opening game of the NCAA Tournament tonight. Howard is 19th in the country in 3pt shooting so if they advance they could put a scare into the Tar Heels.
Ceiling: 1st round.
Floor: Play-in.
#15 Long Beach State (#172)
One of the crazier stories in the Dance as the Beach fired head coach Dan Monson prior to their conference tournament, and then they won said conference tournament! They won non-conference games over Michigan and USC (neither are great teams but solid wins for a Big West school) and they play a track meet style that could lead to a wild shootout with Arizona.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. The 15 seeds seem dangerous this year and Long Beach State benefits from Monson’s familiarity from his Gonzaga days with Tommy Lloyd. Arizona has been snake bitten in the opening rounds and if Beach can pull the shocker they won’t face high major competition in the second round.
Floor: 1st round.
Talk about getting hot at the right time. LB State was dead in the water after losing their final five regular season games but they rattled off three straight tourney wins to reach the big dance. They truly have nothing to lose and can give Zona some fits if they just play extremely free and loose.
Ceiling: Cover in round 1
Floor: Lose by infinity
#14 Colgate (#141)
A fourth straight Patriot League title and ticket to the Dance for the Raiders and their pesky defense. They beat Vermont early in the year which is a plus on the mid major front, and will be looking to finally pull off an upset in their fourth consecutive appearance here.
Ceiling: 2nd round. Experience is powerful in March and they could catch a volatile Baylor squad sleeping in the opener. It’s unlikely but of the 14 seeds they’d be my favorite upset candidate.
Floor: 1st round.
A model mid major and a team who has done fun things in March. They will play fast and try to outscore you but leave a lot to be desired on the defensive.
Ceiling: Cover in round 1
Floor: Blown out
#13 Charleston (#100)
A second straight appearance for the Cougars (how many Cougars are in this tournament?) who bring a high tempo offensive attack to the Dance once again. That will be interesting in a matchup with also high tempo Alabama, but I’m not sure fighting fire with fire is going to be to Charleston’s advantage here.
Ceiling: 1st round.
Floor: 1st round.
The Cougars are a lite version of Alabama. They play extremely fast and want to out pace you. They will shoot and run a ton, but this is very volatile style. If they get hot, which they have been… look out for Coach Kelsey and Co.
Ceiling: FInal Four
Floor: Lose round 1
#12 Grand Canyon (#61)
Another team making a return trip to the tournament and the Antelopes are one of the most threatening mid major teams in the Dance this year. Bryce Drew has built a highly balanced and efficient squad that picked up an early season win over another 5 seed in San Diego State. 29 wins tells the story of the consistency of the Lopes and Saint Mary’s certainly aren’t the high major athletes that would concern GCU in the 5/12 matchup.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. The Lopes have had their eyes set on the Dance since last year’s opening round loss and have improved nicely this year. They won’t fear a WCC opener and then they get an overrated Alabama team in the second round. There will be plenty of belief on the Lopes sideline that they can be the 12 seed that blows open the West bracket.
Floor: 1st round.
GCU is a very talented mid major with a great coach. This team was dominant all season long in the WAC and have their eyes set on the second weekend. They have guards who are physical and not afraid to score.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round 1 loss
#10 Nevada (#36)
The Wolf Pack started the year impressively beating competition from the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC before struggling out of the gates in MWC play. But they rounded back into form at the right time and used their Top 40 offense and defense to win seven straight to end the regular season. Steve Alford has an experienced bunch here who at their best might just be the best chance the MWC has to make a deep run this month.
Ceiling: Final Four. This region feels like the most wide open of any of them, and there’s no reason that a balanced Nevada team with strong guard play can’t find its way to Phoenix. Dayton is greatly overrated, and Arizona has struggled in March under Tommy Lloyd. MWC competition could await in the Sweet 16 and then who knows where momentum could carry the Wolfpack.
Floor: 1st round.
All goes through Mr. Blackshear. The do it all man for Nevada is a top ten player in the nation and can take over for a few games. Nevada played extremely well down the stretch of the season and has high upside on both sides of the ball.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 1 loss
#6 Clemson (#34)
It was a strong non-conference season for Clemson and talented post PJ Hall, but the wheels somewhat came off in ACC play. Those loosening wheels continued in an opening round ACC Tournament loss to Boston College and sentiment is rightfully dour on the Tigers entering the Dance. Your opinion on the Tigers is likely shaped by your opinion of the ACC, and mine isn’t overly strong.
Ceiling: 2nd round.
Floor: 1st round. New Mexico is surging and a brutal draw for the fading Tigers. Good luck.
Clemson went through runs of greatness and runs of horrible basketball. Their frontcourt is their strong suit and will play solid. The backcourt is hit or miss on both ends. The guards leave a little to be desired on the defensive end and are streaky offensively.
Ceiling: Title game
Floor: Round 1 loss
#7 Dayton (#33)
The Flyers have Daron Holmes who is legit but the A10 is not good, and Dayton is lucky to be in the tournament after losing in the A10 quarters to Duquesne. They’re going to play inside out basketball and rely on Holmes in conjunction with their 40% shooting from 3pt range. It’s a solid enough recipe in March but this team has lost the plot a bit at a crucial moment of the season.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. I’d lean towards the “floor” side of the spectrum for the Flyers but like I said they have the recipe for a success March style if they’re clicking. If they can get by Nevada they can frustrate Arizona, but a fairytale run deep into March doesn’t seem plausible.
Floor: 1st round.
Disappointing end to the season for Dayton. They gagged the A10 regular season and conference tournament. That is surely not a great sign heading into March. If you can’t close meaningful games then… how could you now? They still have a great infrastructure of talent but they are hard to trust right now.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 1 loss
#8 Mississippi State (#30)
Chris Jans and this rugged Bulldogs defense have lacked consistency this year but have beaten Tennessee twice and Auburn once. Freshman guard Josh Hubbard can flash and Tolu Smith on the interior is effective on both ends of the floor. This is not a team that you really would want to play with their defensive presence and volatility on the offensive end of the floor but they can also go ice cold from the floor and lose to anyone. One of the wildcard teams in the West that can do damage but it’s high risk/high reward to send them deep in your bracket.
Ceiling: Final Four. There isn’t a single team in the West that the Bulldogs can’t beat, and Josh Hubbard is a hot streak in March away from being a household name. But can they bring that level of consistency in a tough opening round match up and then a likely date with top seed UNC?
Floor: 1st round.
Chris Jans knows how to win in March and this team fears no one. After waxing Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, they should be confident. They thrive off defense and can get streaky on the offensive end.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Round 1 loss
#11 New Mexico (#28)
You can sense the terrible seeding for the Lobos based on their position in this list, and the trendy preseason Final Four pick is peaking at the right moment. Richard Pitino led the Lobos through the gauntlet of the MWC tournament with four straight wins, and the elite rebounding and guard play here make the Lobos a threat to go deep this month. With that being said they play one of the fastest paces in the country which I don’t like to see this time of year which lowers my ceiling versus some of the hype this team will gather this week.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. This team has been up and down all year and they can ride the up of a MWC title through the opening weekend. But I’m always going to fade teams that play rapid tempos for deep runs and the Lobos are 8th in the country in pace.
Floor: 1st round.
One of the hottest teams out right now. The duo of Mashburn and House have the chance to be the face of March Madness and they have the bigs to match. If they can play solid team basketball, look out.
Ceiling: National Championship Game
Floor: Round 1 loss
#9 Michigan State (#21)
This team has been terrible this year and honestly shouldn’t even be dancing. But now that they’re here you do have to be alert to the experienced guard play and the one man show ability of Tyson Walker. As we all know March is the month of Izzo and he had the Spartans focused in a close Big 10 tournament loss to top seeded Purdue. If you believe in Izzo then you can believe in this team, but if you’ve watched them this year you’re not optimistic.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. I don’t think this is likely at all but yes this team is more than capable of reaching the regional final on paper in an open west region. But, they have done nothing on the resume to show they are going to live up to their capabilities this year. Time will tell.
Floor: 1st round. This would be the proper fate for this failed season.
Extremely low on Michigan State but they did enough to make the dance and you can never truly doubt Izzo in March
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#5 Saint Mary’s (#20)
The elite Gaels defense was the class of the WCC this year and two out of three against Gonzaga gave them the WCC title. They are dominant on the glass on both ends of the floor and sophomore Aidan Mahaney is the type of offensive weapon that can carry a team in March. Randy Bennett has never advanced further than the Sweet 16, but this will be his best chance yet.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. I don’t think the WCC was particularly strong this year and there’s a reason that Randy Bennett has made just a single Sweet 16 in 20+ years at Saint Mary’s. The elite defense doesn’t travel against elite competition and they’re going to have their hands full right out of the gates with a fantastic GCU squad.
Floor: 1st round.
SMC did not really do anything special this season but they hung on to grab a 5 seed. This team has a great defense with a high offensive ceiling but can surely get out muscled from time to time.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round 1 loss
#4 Alabama (#15)
The Tide have been extremely fraudulent this year and have very few marquee wins on the resume. It’s classic Nate Oats basketball with frenetic pace but the offense isn’t as crisp as it was last year, and the defense has taken a massive step backwards. The ceiling on Nate Oats style has been the Sweet 16 and this team isn’t of his highest caliber so I will be surprised if they do anything of significant note this March.
Ceiling: Sweet 16.
Floor: 2nd round. They’re lucky to try equally frenetic Charleston.
All or nothing for Alabama. This team can win the Natty or lose in round one and I would not be shocked. They play an extremely volatile style of basketball with high pace and high possessions. Surely the most volatile team in the nation
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Lose round 1
#3 Baylor (#13)
Plenty of impressive pieces here for Scott Drew with freshman Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi being the spotlights. Rayj Dennis is excellent at PG as well and the Bears are deserving of a high seed after solid play throughout the difficult Big 12 campaign. The defense was a major question mark at times, but it improved as the season went on and in this wide-open region they’re as capable as anyone of advancing to Phoenix.
Ceiling: Final Four. At their best they’re not far behind the top seeds in the West at all, and Scott Drew is the most seasoned coach in the regional. They should be thrilled with this draw and the experience these talented freshman gained in a gauntlet Big 12 schedule will have them prepared for anything they face here.
Floor: 2nd round.
Truly one of the younger and weaker Baylor squads of the last few years. This team does not have national champion upside but are never a team you want to face.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round of 32
#1 North Carolina (#8)
The Tar Heels learned how to defend and with it their fortunes have greatly increased this year. Their starting five is one of the best in the country and the perimeter shooting threats of RJ Davis and Harrison Ingram help space the floor for Bacot to dominate the glass on the interior. There are certainly questions about the depth though and being unable to beat a winded NC State team in the ACC title game is a red flag. Definitely the weakest of the top seeds and the rapid tempo on the offensive end isn’t ideal this time of year.
Ceiling: Title game. The 2nd round match up might be tougher than the Sweet 16 and the Tar Heels won’t be able to take a play off if they want to advance out of the first weekend. Then they’ll be forced to head out West to likely face western opponents in LA. It’s doable for this talented starting five but as the third most popular team in the bracket pools I’d be happy to fade them.
Floor: 2nd round.
The Heels lost to in-state rival’s NC State in the ACC Champ game. They have the ceiling to get the job done. This team is hungry after failing the last few years.
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Round of 32
#2 Arizona (#5)
The two in the West is basically a one seed for Arizona who will be desperate to shake off some dire opening weekend performances under Tommy Lloyd. It’s a roster with all of the pieces and when it clicks they’re untouchable, but it was a regular season defined by inexcusable losses. When the game becomes a track meet they’re at their best but that’s why they’ve struggled in March recently and there hasn’t been enough adaptation of their style this year to finally pop in March. Dana Altman gave every coach in this regional the recipe to beat them in his second half dismantling of the Wildcats last weekend in Vegas.
Ceiling: National Champions. Alright I just gave all of the reasons why I do not expect Arizona to hit this ceiling, but it remains their ceiling as it has all year. They should be capable of it and the biggest reason for it is the West region and a Final Four in Phoenix. If they somehow reach their potential at the right time, they will have home court advantage in the most meaningful games of the season. With that said it didn’t do them much good in Vegas, and overall I won’t be riding them this March.
Floor: 1st round.
The Cats have the offensive prowess to run with anyone in the country but I do not trust their big men on both sides to win a National Championship
Ceiling: National Championship Game
Floor: Round of 32 loss
Midwest Region
Regional Strategic Overview
Not the strongest region and Purdue has a golden opportunity here to shake off the demons and roll to Phoenix. Tennessee struggled down the stretch and also underachieves and then there’s Creighton who has been volatile for much of the year. Normally we’d look down the board for some Cinderella candidates, but this region doesn’t really seem to have them. So with many people still holding last year against the Boilermakers I think the move here is to ride them for leverage in a region where there aren’t many great alternatives.
#16 Grambling (#279) / Montana State (#211)
It’s not happening again. They’re not beating Purdue.
Ceiling: 1st round.
Floor: Play-in game.
#15 Saint Peter’s (#195)
The Peacocks are back in the Dance, and this time they bring a strong defensive unit to the table. It’s another SEC foe for them in the opener but styles make fights and it’s going to be a lot to ask to out defend Tennessee.
Ceiling: 1st round.
Floor: 1st round.
Can SPU create more magic as a 15 seed? This team was not even the top dog in conference all year but won when it mattered most. Sadly for SPU, this team is not as talented as the team who won a few years back.
Ceiling: Cover in round 1
Floor: Blown out in round 1
#14 Akron (#120)
The Zips and Enrique Freeman are a dangerous first round opponent under John Groce who has pulled March upsets before. It’s going to be a big ask to do so against Creighton but expect the Zips to represent themselves nicely in the opener.
Ceiling: 1st round.
Floor: 1st round.
Akron tried to lose their chance at making it here but bucked up in the end. They gagged the MAC regular season title and needed a few comebacks to win the postseason tournament. Akron is a strong defensive team which will be important against a team like Creighton and they have a solid big man in Enrique Freeman who they will lean on.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Blown out in round 1
#13 Samford (#91)
It’s go, go, go for the Bulldogs who come in with 29 wins and a largely dominant campaign in the Southern Conference. They’ve progressed each year under Bucky McMillan (great name) and play the most bench minutes of any team in the tournament. They’re going to come after a weak Kansas team for 40 minutes and Bill Self will need to have all the tools in his toolshed at his disposal to fight off the pesky Bulldogs.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. Kansas might really suck and then there’s a real chance their second-round opponent would be McNeese. The Bulldogs can dream of an extended stay in the Dance if they play their best basketball this week.
Floor: 1st round.
Get ready to hear “Bucky Ball”... Coach Bucky McMillan has one of the most talented mid-major teams in the entire nation. Samford has an extremely balanced team and truly have a favorable draw in Kansas since they are banged up. Samford controlled the Big South all season long and ran through the post season tournament. This moment has been years in the making and I believe Samford can make some noise.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Almost Cover in round 1
#12 McNeese (#66)
Will Wade and the Cowboys are one of the stories of college basketball with their 30 wins in the Southland. It’s a highly efficient team on both ends with high major experience that will be licking their chops in a favorable draw on the opening weekend. The hype train will be strong for the Pokes and it should be, they’ve had their eyes on this moment all year and Will Wade is ready to make a statement.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. This isn’t an elite Gonzaga team they’ll face in the opener and Kansas has all sorts of questions of their own. The Cowboys know how to win basketball games and they will fear no one in this part of the bracket.
Floor: 1st round.
McNeese had an amazing non conference season and absolutely ran through the Southland conference. This team has a great coach in Will Wade who has plenty of experience and star player Shahada Wells can score against anyone. Sadly, I believe the hype is too high and do not see them getting by Gonzaga.
Ceiling: Neck and neck game with Gonzaga
Floor: Blown out in round 1
#10 Virginia (#59)
Even the Cavaliers are surprised they received this invite after a truly dismal season on the offensive end of the floor. It’s classic Bennett ball on the defensive end but there are limited playmakers on the offensive end and the hope is that the team’s perimeter shooting can carry them through to a couple of wins. Those wins are going to need to be in the 60s though and they’ll be tested straight away by an efficient Colorado State attack.
Ceiling: 2nd round. They can suffocate Colorado State and Texas enough to somehow advance there but then they face a better version of themselves in Tennessee where things should come to an end.
Floor: Play-in.
Happy to be here or focused to win? The Hoo’s seemed VERY surprised when they were selected to make the tournament. Sometimes these are the most dangerous teams. They may feel like they are playing with house money and will their way to a few win. This UVA team can actually score a little bit. I would not want to play them if they are playing risk free basketball.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Blown out against Colo State
#11 Oregon (#58)
Vintage Dana Altman in the final Pac 12 Tournament as he got his talented Ducks roster clicking at just the right time as they rolled to the title in Vegas. Injuries have greatly hurt the depth of the Ducks but the pieces they do have are solid and Altman is one of the best tournament coaches in the country.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. Altman and the Ducks have won at least two games in their last four tournament appearances with the last two coming as 7 and 12 seeds. You simply don’t want to play Dana in March, and this has all the makings of an Oregon surprise run once again.
Floor: 1st round.
A very up and down season for The Ducks but they figured it out in the end and won the Pac 12 tournament. They have proven to have the ceiling to make a run in a tournament setting and I would not be shocked to see them do it again.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Close round 1 loss
#8 Utah State (#51)
The Aggies benefitted from an unbalanced MWC schedule to win the regular season and I’m not sure they have any real reason to be upset with their seeding here. If anything, they’re probably a bit overhyped without any marquee wins and lack the depth to do anything meaningful from this part of the bracket. They defend the three-point line and then attack in the paint, but I’ve got questions.
Ceiling: 2nd round. If Purdue losses to these guys they should officially be banned from the tournament for a decade.
Floor: 1st round.
An excellent season for a new roster that Utah State had coming into the season. They won the Mountain West regular season but did have some favorable matchups and scheduling.
Ceiling: Win round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#10 Colorado State (#47)
Here is another MWC team ranked higher than Utah State, and the Rams have impressive early season wins over Creighton and Colorado. Things got a bit choppy however in conference play as the efficient offense run by Niko Medved got figured out by the elite coaching in the conference. The Rams will benefit from facing new competition in the Dance and Isaiah Stevens could carry the Rams to a few upset wins from the PG position.
Ceiling: Elite Eight. This is a longshot but Stevens is legit and if the offense is freed up they’re capable of getting white hot. They’ve already schooled Creighton who could await in the Sweet 16 and Tennessee is always ripe for an upset. Take care of Virginia and they can start to dream.
Floor: Play-in.
Disrespect in the seeding? Colo State was at the top of the Mountain West all season but dropped a few games in a row. They still are a solid team all around and should be ready to make some noise after being a tad disrespected.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Close loss against UVA
#6 South Carolina (#43)
Lamont Paris with one of the coaching jobs of the year here as the Gamecocks won 26 games with victories over Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State. The only team that really had their number was Auburn and despite an average statistical profile this team just finds a way to win basketball games. They’re probably one of the more difficult teams to assess because they don’t do anything spectacular, but they win and here they are.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. It’s going to be tough to even get by Oregon in the opening round and then Creighton likely awaits. It’s been a magical year for South Carolina though so despite a lack of statistical evidence there’s a path to the Sweet 16 here on vibes alone and they won’t have to play Auburn who has been the only team to repeatedly dominate them this year.
Floor: 1st round. Dana Altman.
I got a ton of slack for my pre season South Carolina hype in the reddit streets. Lamont Parris is an excellent coach who knows how to win in March. The Gamecocks can surely get to the second weekend on the 6 line. They do have a very tough draw though.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Lose round 1
#9 TCU (#32)
The Horned Frogs didn’t really do anything special this year besides survive the tough Big 12 slate and they picked off just enough marquee wins – including at home against Houston - to earn their ticket into the Dance. Their offense relies on their defense forcing turnovers and when that doesn’t happen they cannot score. This team has screwed me all year in the betting markets, and I don’t like them.
Ceiling: 2nd round. Same as Utah State. If Purdue loses to TCU then ban them from the Dance.
Floor: 1st round.
Playing in the Big 12 is a gauntlet and surviving that long enough to make the NCAA Tournament is a success. They have a very similar team from the last few seasons that had success but plug in a few different names. They can win round 1 in a big way but I do not see them getting by Purdue.
Ceiling: Blow out opponent in round 1
Floor: Lose round 1
#7 Texas (#22)
The Longhorns have a similar resume to TCU where they didn’t really do anything amazing this year but the strength of the Big 12 was their friend. They have a great roster with Max Abmas of Oral Roberts fame at guard and they bring some of the most D1 experience in the country into this tournament. It just hasn’t quite fully clicked yet but they played better towards the end of the season – before a senseless loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament – so an interesting bunch with upside but also ripe for a first round upset.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. This team is infuriating because they have lots of talent, but they’ve let us down at every turn this year. There just isn’t enough consistency to believe Texas can continually pull off upsets when they haven’t strung together any meaningful win streaks this year. All the talent in the world though.
Floor: 1st round.
Texas had a poor season in my opinion this season. Coach Rodney Terry is not good enough to win a national championship and can surely see an early exit. It is nice to see Max Abmas back in the NCAA Tournament after setting the world on fire with Oral Roberts a few years ago.
Ceiling: Elite 8
Floor: Close round 1 loss
#4 Kansas (#19)
This has been a very disappointing year for Bill Self and Co who have been struck by the injury bug on a roster that already lacked depth. If they have Dickinson and McCullar at full health they are capable of beating anyone but it doesn’t seem like that is going to be the case. This is a team who got blown off the floor but lowly Cincinnati in the Big 12 tournament and has been in free fall since the start of February. If Self can find a way to take this team deep into the second weekend it might be one of his best ever March coaching performances because things are looking bleak in Lawrence.
Ceiling: Title Game. It’s still Kansas. They still have an elite starting five at full health. Their ceiling remains as high as anyone. But, there is very little evidence at the moment to support them reaching those heights this year. That said, everyone is aware of the issues with the Jayhawks so if you’re looking for leverage than riding the great Bill Self in March is an option for you.
Floor: 1st round.
Even before all the injuries, I was lower on this Kansas team than most. Yes they have Dickinson, McCullar, and Adams who create one of the better trios in the nation. Outside of those three, I do not trust a single player on Kansas. But can you really count out Coach Self in March.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round 1 Loss
#5 Gonzaga (#14)
This is not even close to an elite Gonzaga roster and their over reliance on interior play from Graham Ike isn’t going to work in March. The guard play is average and they have some of the worst depth of any team in the entire tournament which shines through in Mark Few’s near reluctance to use anyone off the bench. Now Mark Few is an excellent coach and he can find a way to win a couple of games in the Dance with any roster, but his hands will be full from the first minute against McNeese.
Ceiling: Sweet 16. Everything Gonzaga does well is just a worse version of Purdue.
Floor: 1st round.
The Zags turned it around late in the season and have the lowest of expectations they have had in awhile, which is scary. They have the infrastructure to make a run but the firepower and offensive prowess is not what it was from the last few years.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
Floor: Round of 32
#3 Creighton (#9)
The Jays have ebbed and flowed this year but after coming up a play short of the Final Four last year, McDermott will have this team ready to make a run once again. They’re one of the most balanced attacks in the country with elite play on both ends of the floor and shot makers to surround the strong interior presence of Ryan Kalkbrenner. Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman are excellent scorers and we saw the potential of this team when they rolled UCONN in Omaha a few weeks ago. This roster is battle tested in March and they have all of the pieces to finally breakthrough to the Final Four.
Ceiling: Final Four. I love this Creighton team and I can overlook some regular season slip ups for a roster that would have had its eyes focused on March all season long. McDermott is one of the best coaches in the country and there is not too much to be afraid of in a draw with perennial under achievers Purdue and Tennessee above them. They haven’t strung enough wins in a row together for me to trust them to cut down the nets in Phoenix and they lack a bit of toughness against a team like Houston but they can go deep.
Floor: 2nd round.
Extremely volatile team who can get it done both offensively and defensively. The Bluejays can score 100 any game. If they can heat up these next few weekends, they have National Champion upside.
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Round 1 loss
#2 Tennessee (#6)
I always have Rick Barnes on fraud watch and he’s not doing much to help himself with a home loss to Kentucky and then being routed by Miss State in the SEC Tournament. It’s a typical Vols defense but the hopes of an improved March run has been the elite offensive skill set of transfer Dalton Knecht. He can easily score 40 in any game, but I still question the pieces around him offensively and teams in the Dance will be able to gameplan for him. If you stop Knecht then you stop Tennessee and once again I think offensive deficiencies bite Rick Barnes in March.
Ceiling: Final Four. It’s not the most difficult region so even with their flaws they can make a run with Purdue equally capable of choking but I’m not convinced the offense is efficient enough to truly challenge for a national title. I also don’t trust Rick Barnes and I’d rather have my bracket die with a coach that I believe in.
Floor: 2nd round.
An elite team with a horrendous tournament resume. That has already popped up after Tennessee lost to Mississippi State as 8 point favorites in The SEC Tourney. Hopefully that is the motivation they needed because I really do see this as the best Vols team we have seen in a while.
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Sweet 16
#1 Purdue (#3)
They’ve waited all year to get back to this spot and it was a fantastic regular season for Edey and the Boilermakers. Braden Smith has greatly elevated his game this year and is one of the nation’s best PGs and players like Lance Jones have been great additions to the depth and toughness of this Purdue roster. It’s a massively, massively improved 3pt shooting team which was their downfall last year and I fully believe this team can overcome last year’s devastation and take the Virginia route all the way to the title. Last year was a one man show, this is year is an elite basketball team.
Ceiling: National Champions. Zach Edey is one of the most dominant players in college basketball history and this year Braden Smith compliments Edey with elite PG play. I’m ready to be fooled again by Purdue but I truly think this team is different than last years and there is a lot more leverage available on them as only 9% of brackets currently have them going all the way. Prepare for pain, but the risk/reward on Purdue is more than fair.
Floor: Sweet 16. Again, if Purdue doesn’t advance out of the first weekend then ban them from the tournament.
For how amazing this team is, everyone has counted them out. I can promise you this season will be different. Edey is still the most dominant player in the country and his supporting cast is older and more mature. Purdue can get the job done this year.
Ceiling: Champions
Floor: Elite 8
