RBC Preview
Harbour Town
Hilton Head, SC
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
Nothing out of the ordinary this week in Hilton Head from a weather perspective, we should have a typical RBC Heritage and therefore nothing needs to change here from the course preview.
There may be a hint of higher winds on Thursday afternoon but any advantage that may provide is probably canceled out by chilly AM temps. I’m not worrying about the weather this week, and sticking to the normal Harbour Town keys.
There were a couple requests for data on number of spike APP rounds over player’s last 10 starts so here it is —> LINK
DFS
$10K+ (1 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Collin Morikawa $10,900 – Taking on the top with Collin. Positional bombing has proven to work around Harbour Town the last few years and Collin is surely a man of positions but he has more pop he gets credit for. The irons seem to be trending heading into the week as well which is must around Harbour Town. He has proven to be able to play very well here in the past as well.
Fade
Ludvig Åberg $11,000 – Tough to fade anyone in this range, but Ludvig’s wedge game has been shaky. He’ll have plenty of short irons, but unless that gets cleaned up, he may not capitalize enough to pay off the price tag.
Adam
Picks
Xander Schauffele $10,400 - Xander spoke about switching back to his old driver, and we instantly saw that start to payoff with more accurate driving last week. The approach game is dialed which is what we care about most here, and the lowered putting emphasis will also be a big boost. Ready to start buying stock.
Fade
Collin Morikawa $10,900 –There aren’t any clear fades IMO up here, but Collin at Harbour Town isn’t the slam dunk it looks like due to the short game here historically. He has always put up some of the best ball striking of his career here which he can repeat but it’s only yielded two Top 10s in five starts. I think the winning upside is elsewhere.
$9K+ (1 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Russell Henley $9,700 – Love this bounce-back spot. Augusta came with a lot of personal expectations, but this is more his speed—tight layout, premium on precision. Expect a calm, focused week from Russ.
Fade
Jason Day $9,100 – Steady form, but in this range, we’re looking for ceiling. Day’s just not bringing enough firepower right now, and there are more aggressive pivots at this price point.
Adam
Picks
Russell Henley $9,700 –Not a good week at Augusta for Russ, but a great chance to buy the dip here. Will work his way around nicely T2G and the floor is high regardless of what the putter does. If it performs to his normal baselines he will be right there.
Fade
Jason Day $9,100 –Day is the least reliable iron player in this part of the board, and for that reason I will pass.
$8K (1 Picks & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Maverick McNealy $8,100 – Winner in this area of the country and doing nothing but playing solid golf. The kid grew up a stud and there is a world where he becomes an actual top 10 player in the world. (Not a fake OWGR one.) Mav is playing a ton of golf and seems ready to pop again.
Fade
Sungjae Im $8,700 – Sung is coming off a T5 and will surely garner some chalk at this price but I think there is a world in which he struggles. Over the last three years, he has done his best work on really firm greens because he struggles to take spin off. There could be some spots in which he gets into trouble on some softness here.
Adam
Picks
Daniel Berger $8,300 - Berger has the “all green” profile that we’re always going to be interested in especially at a place like Harbour Town. The course history is super steady as well and he appears to be the most reliable target in this range.
Fade
Min Woo Lee $8,200 - On paper a course where iron play is the key isn’t going to be a Min Woo track. Now, that said, he has outperformed at times on positional Bermuda but has yet to show that at all here.
$7K (5 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Denny McCarthy $7,900 – This is where you want Denny. Fade him at $9K+ in weak fields, play him here. He was solid across the board at Augusta, which is encouraging for this style of setup.
Davis Thompson $7,400 – Birdie machine. Made a ton at Augusta, and his positional bombing works on comp courses. He’s got the ceiling—and the price is sweet.
Sahith Theegala $7,300 – Coming off his best approach week since Harbour Town 2023. Feels like a momentum spark, and his all-around tools give him real GPP-winning upside.
Taylor Pendrith $7,300 – Still buying in. Pendrith’s approach game is in solid shape, and he’s more than capable of driving it in the right spots when dialed.
Tom Hoge $7,100 – Stringing together great approach rounds and coming to a spot where that’s the ticket. Course history isn’t flashy, but his recent form lines up beautifully with what this place asks for.
Adam
Picks
Denny McCarthy $7,900 - Denny is playing some of the best overall golf of his career, and this is a spot he has had success. A great chance to add a sixth Top 20 in his last eight starts.
Akshay Bhatia $7,700 - This is a spot Akshay can flash with the iron play, and he did so in a T18 finish here last year. Good bounce back spot after last week.
Davis Thompson $7,500 - Continues to be a menace T2G and the lack of putting emphasis here will help him a lot.
Sahith Theegala $7,300 - This is a spot Theegs has been amazing with his short game and he arrives off of his best approach performance of the season.
Harris English $7,200 - Harris has three spike APP efforts in his last eight starts including last week and now comes to comfortable short game conditions as well
$6K (6 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Lucas Glover $6,900 – Augusta was a reach, but Harbour Town is perfect. Glover’s game is tailor-made for this type of course. Expect a serious bounce-back.
Billy Horschel $6,800 – Despite the missed cut at Augusta, Billy is confident and honest about where his game is. He loves this grind-it-out golf style and should rebound nicely.
Rickie Fowler $6,800 – Signs of life. The iron numbers were promising in Texas, and he’s played well here before. Quietly rounding into form.
Andrew Novak $6,700 – Local roots (South Carolina native), strong all-around game, and super motivated. He’s popped on multiple course types and could do it again here.
Eric Cole $6,400 – Gaining on approach in three straight starts. Ideal for backdoor T10 equity, and the price makes him a plug-and-play in deep builds.
Chris Kirk $6,100 – Flowchart golfer. Veteran with tons of reps here and knows this is the kind of course where his game plays up. Perfect deep sleeper.
Adam
Picks
Billy Horschel $6,800 – Billy is always live off of a MC and especially one where the APP was dialed, two Top 10s here as well
Rickie Fowler $6,800 - Back to back Top 20s here and always gains comfortably T2G which raises the floor
Ryan Gerard $6,600 - Starting to look like one of the more talented youngsters on the entire Tour with an ideal APP game for Harbour Town
Patrick Rodgers $6,500 - Nobody putts these greens better in this field, and down here that is more than enough to outperform
Eric Cole $6,400 –Classic Cole course and looking a lot more like classic Cole form of late
Matt Kuchar $6,000 - It’s a Kuch spot at this price, we know what to do
One and Done
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. YTD in parentheses.
In-Season
Matt ($4.606M): Corey Conners. Conners is quietly putting together one of the most consistent stretches on Tour. He’s played Harbour Town eight times with solid results, but this is the best form he’s brought in. Elite off the tee and dialed with his irons, he offers a super high floor and real top-5 upside. Not flashy, but reliable—perfect for One and Done formats.
Vincent AI ($2.999M): Tom Hoge. He delivered one of the most impressive approach performances at Augusta last week (+6.8), second only to Rose, which aligns perfectly with the winner's trend analysis for Harbour Town.
Unlike some competitors who might be mentally drained from the Masters, Hoge wasn't in serious contention late on Sunday, potentially leaving him in better physical and mental condition for this week. His solid performance at Pebble Beach earlier this season fits our comp course correlation, and his iron play is perfectly suited for the small targets at Harbour Town.
Hoge's game matches the statistical profile required here - strong approach play with solid tee-to-green numbers. The reduced emphasis on putting at this venue minimizes his occasional weakness with the flatstick. As a player who isn't typically used early in one-and-done pools, Hoge presents an excellent opportunity to get value while saving your remaining premier talent for future events.
Adam ($2.309M): Patrick Cantlay. It’s always Pat for me at Harbour Town. That’s it.
Adam ($4.587M): Cantlay.
Vincent AI ($3.863M): Cantlay.
Matt ($1.520M): Tom Kim.
Outright Selections
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.
Adam (-5.4 Point YTD; this week is to win +8.6 points)
Odds currently available on BetOnline.
Justin Thomas +2500
I feel like my JT senses are getting sharper, and this has similar vibes to how I felt at Valspar where you have no choice but to hit the shot in front of you. That is what JT needs to play well and we saw that with a Top 5 here last year in much worse form. Capable of leading the field T2G and the same price he was at Augusta on a better course fit.
Jordan Spieth +4500
I am always interested in Spieth above 40/1, and I don’t need to explain his affinity for this venue. The short game is the best it has been in ages and we have seen major spike upside with the iron play over the last ten starts. The game is much closer than it may appear, and a great first spot of the year to ride the Jordan train despite the pain he has caused me in this event before.
Sahith Theegala +8000
Theegs arrives off of his best APP performance of the season, and comes to a spot where he has shown the best short game of his career. Add those together and we have a real opportunity here at a big price.
Bud Cauley +8500
It’s possible that no one in this field is playing better golf than Bud and he has the previous Top 10 here that we are after as well. Back to back spike APP efforts is exactly what we’re looking for at a price like this.
Harris English +9000
It has been a great season for Harris and the APP play continues to improve including a great effort last week at Augusta. Always gains comfortably with the short game around here as well, and another spot where he can get firmly into the mix at a price.
Billy Horschel +11000
I almost prefer Billy off of a MC and it was one where he spoke confidently afterwards at Augusta. I like what he is doing with the iron play right now, and two Top 10s here shows his ability to pop. The dog isn’t going anywhere either, and that’s great at 110/1.
Matt (+1.3 Point YTD; this week is to win +7.8 points)
We’re heading into event No. 17 of the season. Two early winners were a sweet start, but we’ve been sweating bricks since. Still on pace, but it’s time for someone to cross the line again.
I went back and forth on this week’s card. A handful of names near the top—Collin, Pat, Conners, and Russ—popped for me, but each had small holes I couldn’t ignore. Then I remembered something I told myself during Harbour Town last year:
BUILD A CARD, GATHER NAMES.
This is one of those courses where everyone’s live. It brings the whole field into play—shorter layout, quirky design, no major advantage to any one style. We’re going to see favorites battling with longshots all weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Tommy Try #2. I’ll take the 30. I’m banking on some post-Masters hangovers from the big names, and maybe some residual Rory energy to carry his Euro counterpart. No need to rattle off Tommy stats—you know the deal. Every first-time win starts somewhere.
Viktor Hovland +4281
Can Vik win twice in just a handful of starts? He has before. Six straight positive approach weeks, a streak we saw when he went back-to-back. His ball-striking is peaking, and this Bookmaker number was too good to pass up.
Maverick McNealy +7000
Mav’s won in this region and finished T4 here. He knows what a win does for Ryder Cup chances, and he’s been playing with real confidence. After a strong Augusta debut and improved ball-striking, he’s live at anything 50/1 or longer.
Davis Thompson +8183
5th in birdies at The Masters. Loves comp courses. Lives in the region. And he’s cooking—+12 SG:APP over his last two events. He was 5th in approach at Augusta. The ceiling is high and the fit is strong.
Sahith Theegala +9000
Always worth a shot at this price. He just posted his best approach week in a year at The Masters—his best since this same event last season. Great vibes, and Sahith can contend anywhere. For him, it’s always about the number over the stats—and this number is sweet.
Bud Cauley +9236
Bud is back and balling. T6, T4, T5 in his last three. Fairways, tight irons, rolling putts. He looks comfortable and confident, and this course suits his game perfectly. Tons of reps here, too. Just feels like the right time.
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Outside of last week, Pendrith has been flushing irons. He can be a positional bomber when the driver is on. The number is drifting, and I don’t think he’s far off.
Chris Kirk +30000
Classic flowchart play. Positional, Bermuda... Kirk doesn’t fear this setup. At 300/1, he’s worth the flier.
Vincent (-2.9 Point YTD; this week is to win +10.0 points)
Corey Conners +2200
Conners stands out as a premier iron player who perfectly fits Harbour Town's demands. His precision with approach shots aligns exactly with what the course history supports. He showed spike approach form at Augusta (+5.6) last week, and his consistent ball-striking is tailor-made for the small targets and visual deception of this Pete Dye design. His previous success at similar courses like Bay Hill and Colonial further strengthens the case. While not the longest driver, his combination of decent distance and precision provides the right balance for the evolving OTT game at this venue.
Russell Henley +2500
Henley has shown tremendous iron play recently, with a spike approach round at Pebble Beach (+4.4) that indicates he's in form with his irons. His game thrives at courses that demand precision over power, making Harbour Town an ideal fit. Henley has historically performed well on Bermuda greens, which matches one of our course correlation factors. His putting inconsistency isn't a major concern since the last four winners here gained just +0.7 strokes putting on average. With the field potentially fatigued after Augusta, Henley's consistent tee-to-green game offers excellent value.
Tom Hoge +11000
Hoge delivered one of the most impressive approach performances at Augusta last week (+6.8), which aligns perfectly with our winner's trend analysis. This type of incoming spike approach form has been predictive of success at Harbour Town. His solid performance at Pebble Beach earlier this season also fits our comp course correlation. While Hoge isn't known for his putting, we've established that's less important here than at most venues. The combination of recent elite iron play and the course's emphasis on approach shots makes him a compelling value option.