Sandy Farms Preview
CC of Jackson
Jackson, MS
Normally Sandy Farms is not a fun tournament to write about, but we have some very interesting course comps that have developed over the last two seasons as new venues have come on the scene. COMPs are normally just a small tidbit at the end, but they’re a lot more interesting than the data story this week. So, we will fly through the strokes gained elements and then hone in on COMPs.
The main reason the data story isn’t of too much interest or need for a deep dive is that we have a pretty straightforward distance + approach/putting history at CC of Jackson. The last seven winners have all been Top 30 on the week in distance and each has gained at least 5.5 strokes on approach or with the flatstick. Send it from the tee and then score with the irons or the putter, no need to excel with both.
Now, there are a couple of notes on these aspects:
1) There are actually two paths to distance here. The first one is the obvious one, hit it really far in the air. However, the fairways can get really bouncy here so there is actually a path to greatly outperforming your normal distance figures by excelling in accuracy. You can’t bunt it out there and get roll but if you have average distance and extreme accuracy, you are going to get a lot of run in these fairways. Smalley last year would be an example of this as he ranked 26th in Accuracy, which yielded 2nd in Distance for someone who is never going to be 2nd in Distance in normal conditions. For a vast majority of players it’s still about overall distance, but we cannot cross off guys if they bring strong accuracy and average distance as they can greatly outperform their normal distance ranks.
2) We have seen some terrible putters have huge weeks here. Yu last year being the obvious example but we also saw it from List the year before. On paper there isn’t a strong edge to putting or approach during the week, but on incoming stats I lean towards APP. These are greens where strong approach play can set up easier, more convertable putts. Prior to winning this event with spike putting efforts, Yu and List had no spike putting performances in their previous 50 combined starts. However, they had three spike approach efforts over their previous 20 combined starts. The putting element here has a good deal of randomness to it and forced to choose an incoming profile I’d lean Distance + Approach over Distance + Putting but both are viable.
Now to what I think is actually the most interesting angle this week and that has been the extremely strong crossover results at the Dunes Club (Myrtle Beach Classic) and TPC Toronto (this year’s Canadian Open). Let’s start with this year’s leaderboard at the Dunes Club and those player’s best Sanderson results:
1) Fox - T11
T2) Hughes - W
4) Yu - W
T5) Smalley - T5
T7) Hubbard - T5
T7) Buckley - T4
T7) Schmid - T16
When we look to the 2024 results we see more Sanderson mixers:
T4) Hossler - 2nd
T4) Fox - T11
T4) Yu - W
T10) Hadley - 2nd
T10) Kizzire - T4
Overall the overlap between Myrtle Beach and Sanderson is extremely strong and probably the best data point to lean on this week. This COMP makes plenty of sense when we factor in the Bermuda and Distance biases at both venues.
The COMP that makes a little less sense on first glance is TPC Toronto but it was another Distance biased, wedge heavy event. Again, let’s examine this year’s Canadian Open leaderboard and best previous Sanderson finishes:
1) Fox - T11
2) Burns - W
3) Yu - W
T4) Young - T2
T6) An - 3rd
T9) Champ - W
T9) Skinns - finished T37 but fired 60 in the first round last year
T13) Taylor - W
T13) Smalley - T5
T13) Aberg - T2
Once again, crazy high correlations.
So, it seems like a week to keep things pretty simple. Do they hit the ball far? Are the irons solid? More importantly, how have they played in Myrtle Beach and how did they fare in Toronto this year?
On a week where there usually isn’t great data trends it appears we finally have some clear angles.
Strokes Gained Weights:
SG P (9%)
SG ARG (4%)
SG APP (13%)
SG OTT (16%)
SG TOTAL (11%)
Additional Weights:
COURSE HISTORY (7%)
COMP (9%) - Sea Island, Dye Stadium, TPC Toronto, Dunes Club, Waialae
DISTANCE (11%)
GIR % (9%)
BIRDIE AVG (7%)
BOB % <125 (5%)
Early Odds Board
Adam Early Odds Board Look
Kevin Yu +2800
Doing a lot of the same things he was doing en route to his victory here last year, and should be confident. His two best results of the season have come on the main comps - Myrtle Beach and Toronto.
Rico Hoey +3500
The broom didn’t deliver a positive results at the Core, but it also was a solid improvement. This place is a perfect spot for his ball striking and could take another step forward with the new flatstick.
Emiliano Grillo +3500
Grillo has been in the mix here before and continues to play well in these less than stellar fields when birdie making is required. Don’t love the number.
Max Homa +4500
Lots of good signs of late from Max and this is a fair number when you consider the pedigree against this field. Only question would be can he get the putter going on the Muda?
Garrick Higgo +5000
Two time PGA Tour winner now, and both have come against fields like this. He was in the mix around here a few years ago and has the exact driving profile to pick this place apart. Plenty of upside in the flatstick and looked sharp in Napa.
Ben An +6600
These are perfect Ben An conditions and a fair number to get his game back on track. Was T6 in Toronto before a string of poor results, but he’s personally told us firm, Bermuda is all he wants.
Victor Perez +7500
It’s a debut here for Perez but the comp figures are compelling with a T13 in Myrtle this year and a T9 in Toronto. Needs a good week and is skipping his favored Dunhill Links to deliver it.
Harry Higgs +12500
This is just the COMP impact and the fact that he was in the playoff in Myrtle Beach alongside Hughes and Fox. Very random player, but triple digit prices with some hints that this could be a good spot.
Matt Early Odds Board Look
Min Woo Lee (+2500)
Woozy showed some life on the DP World Tour recently, and it came at a course that demanded keeping the ball in play and dialing in wedges — a formula he thrives with, especially in Florida. While that’s not exactly the recipe in Jackson, Mississippi, I still think this is a solid setup for him. He’ll have a bit more leeway off the tee here, and if the wedges stay hot, he could easily find form on the Muda.
Davis Thompson (+2500)
Davis Thompson is a long-term buy for me — I’ll be backing him plenty in 2026. Simply put, I think he’s better than a lot of the guys priced around him. He brings alpha energy and has gears others don’t. Future top-10 player in the world.
Jacob Bridgeman (+3500)
“Bridge” is definitely a fall buy, especially on Bermuda. In the latter half of the FedEx Cup season, he really showed what his ball-striking ceiling can be.
Mackenzie Hughes (+3500)
No matter what his form looks like, Mac is always live in these weaker-field events. He has a solid track record at this course and should be looking forward to this week.
Alex Smalley (+3500)
Smalley’s surface of choice is Bermuda. He was streaky this past year with the ball-striking, but we’ve seen how high his ceiling is when he’s on. A little time off probably did him some good.
Nicolai Højgaard (+3500)
Nico is another fall buy. The ceiling is huge, though the floor can be rough — but he’ll absolutely be in the mix at some point over these next few events.
Sam Stevens (+4000)
Stevens was right on the brink of a breakout late in the FedEx Cup season. He knows he can win in a field like this. If the irons show up, he’s live.
Hayden Springer (+8000)
I prefer Springer on easier tracks, and this week sets up well for him to let the driver go and hunt birdies.
Michael La Sasso (+15000)
Let’s ride with the young guns. La Sasso will be extremely comfortable here — he’s an Ole Miss guy, so this part of the country is home turf. Love him for a positional finish.
Tom Hoge (+15000)
Hoge didn’t finish the season particularly well, but he did enough to make the playoffs. We know he’ll have plenty of birdie opportunities this week. Hopefully the short break gave him time to tighten things up.