Rocket Preview

Apologies for the delay as I was licking my wounds from the Tommy Lad debacle as Keegan bowed to his putter all afternoon. And, ironically, we roll on to Rocket, where Akshay three-putted his way to a loss last year as well. It is what it is, and we are officially into the Summer of Birdies.

First up, Detroit GC.

This is probably one of the least stats-based weeks of the season. Simply put, anyone can play well at Detroit GC. There are certainly trends we can look to, but this is one of the most important weeks of the year not to overly pigeonhole yourself into the “ideal” profile. There are ideal profiles, but they aren’t do-or-die like at other venues.

Because of that, we start with the fact that favorites have excelled here. The “all-green Xander” style profiles have had no issue translating that consistency into success — driven by the lack of bias in the golf course. Good golf is rewarded.

• Last year, Akshay and Min Woo finished T2, arriving 3rd and 4th in the odds

• In 2023, Rickie and Collin finished 1st and T2, arriving 1st and 2nd in the odds

• In 2022, Tony and Pat finished 1st and T2, arriving 1st and 3rd in the odds

It’s an interesting dynamic as anyone can play well here, but that hasn’t led to massive volatility. Instead, broadly speaking the most skilled players entering the week have had little trouble climbing to the top of the board. Keep that in mind before digging into statistical profiles or hunting deep down the board.

What we do see is that the narrative of Detroit GC as a “bomb and gouge” venue isn’t entirely true, especially in recent years. Subtle changes have helped the course adapt to the bomber onslaught we saw early on. There is certainly a distance bias overall, but the driving results from the past two years show we shouldn’t overemphasize distance and driving overall from an outright perspective — CD and Rickie both gained just +1.2 SG OTT in their wins the last two years.

To see where we should be focused — outside of the top-of-board bias — let’s look at incoming spike form over the previous 10 starts for the 1st (CD, Rickie) and T2 (Rai, Min Woo, Akshay, DT, Collin, Hadwin) finishers from the last two years. As always, spikes are defined as +4.0 SG in each category, and +5% above field average in Dist/Acc.

Average Spikes Last 10 Starts – Winners & Runners-Up, 2024 & 2023
(Number of players with at least one spike in parentheses)

• SG P: 0.9 (4/8)

• SG ARG: 0.9 (3/8)

• SG APP: 1.9 (8/8)

• SG OTT: 1.4 (6/8)

• DIST: 2.9 (6/8)

• ACC: 4.5 (8/8)

What stands out is the significant ball-striking bias — likely the reason why top players translate success here — and a heavier emphasis on accuracy than conventional wisdom would suggest. The only two areas where all eight players had at least one spike were accuracy and approach. The driving profile overall looks much more balanced than the narrative here suggests.

So, the main incoming profile we are after is strong and consistent approach play, steady accuracy, and above-average distance. Overall short game importance — especially the flatstick — has been surprisingly muted for a birdie fest. Likely due to the nuance and slope of these greens, which reward great ball strikers who can leave make-able looks below the hole instead of birdie fests on simpler surfaces which bias towards the putter.

Again, it’s a place anyone can play well and there are a variety of paths to mixing but the above profile is the most likely to excel.

From a course history standpoint, it’s also not a week to overfit. Anyone can play well here, and the histories of winners back that up. Yes, it’s meaningful when someone has won twice in the last four years as CD has. But the best previous finish for most first-time winners hasn’t been amazing:

• Rickie – T12

• Finau – T53

• Davis – MC

• Bryson – DNP

• Lashley - First event here

Normally that would push us more toward the COMP front on the COMP vs Course History spectrum. But it’s not the most consistent set of COMPs either. Taking Vincent’s analysis and reviewing crossover success for past winners, we end up with a TPC-heavy set of venues — but TPCs that lean harder on ball striking. Considering the scoring conditions and skillset required, that checks out. Here are the COMPs for the week and how winners here have fared:

• TPC Scottsdale – Rickie W, Finau 2nd, Bryson T5, Lashley T3

• Dye Stadium Course – CD 3rd, Rickie T10, Finau 4th, Lashley T12

• TPC Twin Cities – CD T10, Finau W, Bryson T2

• Memorial Park – CD T21, Finau W, Lashley T21

• TPC Deere Run – CD T8, Bryson W