Pebble Preview
Multiple Courses
Monterey, California
We still have a ways to go until Thursday, but for the first time in recent years we come to Pebble with a great recent run of weather and a solid in-tournament forecast. That is positive news and something we should keep in mind as we think about the historical figures. Overall we should expect a bit firmer Pebble, but also a Pebble expected to be largely void of testing winds.
That is interesting when we consider the historical success here that has been honed through elite upside with the iron play and putter especially in a firmer years like 2022. These small, sloping greens require precision in all conditions but especially so when there is a touch of bounce to them. Let’s take a look at just how unique the iron play focus is at Pebble.
First, we can see that winners here historically have done their most consistent work in-tournament on approach with five of the last six winners gaining at least +1.3 per round there.
But, more importantly, let’s consider the number of spike approach events that winners have had here in the 10 starts prior to their win:
Clark: 2
Rose: 0
Hoge: 4
Berger: 2
Taylor: 1
Mickelson: 2
Despite varying prices winning here, they largely share the winning in-tournament approach numbers and proven upside on approach in recent starts. Importantly, recent winners approach skill sets also shares what Vincent likes to dub “barbell approach play”:
Players must excel at both ends of the distance spectrum. Winners have shown exceptional prowess from long range (200-250 yards) while also displaying precise control on shorter approaches (50-125 yards). This isn't a course where mid-iron consistency carries the day; instead, it rewards those who can execute the from distance and capitalize with their wedges when scoring opportunities arise.
This barbell skill shown in the incoming stats lines up perfectly with the distributions we actually see in-tournament that shows one of the lowest mid-iron rates all year. So, we combine spike data both in-tournament and pre-tournament with the incoming approach skill sets aligning with the in-tournament distributions and we have a very clear place to focus on approach. That becomes especially true in the conditions we expect this week when considering Hoge’s win in the 2022 conditions and super approach heavy leaderboard overall that year.
The 1B to approach being 1A this week is the flatstick. Year in and year out there are players who simply ride the putter up the board here with a special focus on converting in the testing 4-8’ range. No matter how good your iron play is you will still be required to make an above average number of putts this week. With that said, we see much less spike putting form incoming from winners (six SG P spikes versus the 11 SG APP spikes above). And, great iron play does set up more make-able looks on these sloping surfaces which shifts the 1A even more towards approach as some approach skill bleeds into the putting results.
Of course there is also the Poa putting angle but it’s interesting how effective just relying on course history here and overall play in the state of California does over a long run of winners regardless of surface:
Below is each winner best result at Pebble prior to their win and their previous best result in the state of California before their win:
Pebble | California
Clark: T18 | W LACC
Rose: T3 | W Torrey
Hoge: 12 | 2 AmEx
Berger: T5 | T5 Pebble
Taylor: T10 | T9 Procore
Mickelson: W | W Pebble
Potter: T16 | T10 Riv
Spieth: T4 | T4 Pebble
Taylor: T10 | T8 Pebble
Snedeker: W | W Pebble
Ultimately, between the course history plus California trend and the clear focus on iron play + putting here we do get a pretty clear profile to target this week especially in conditions that should play even more into those areas.
Just out of curiosity, let’s take a look at who in this field arrives with at least two spike approach events in their last 10 starts, a previous T19 or better finish at Pebble, and a previous T10 or better finish in California overall. This trend isn’t set in stone since there have been recent winners that didn’t clear the two spike approach criteria but it should provide a view of the most logical contenders this week:
Keegan
Burns
Cantlay
Cole
CD
Day
Glover
Hoge
Hovland
Lowry
Rory
McNealy
Collin
Pendy
Scotty
Scott
Taylor
JT
Woodland
On the comp front expanding beyond the Cali connection from above, we see plenty of success for recent winners across many of the courses that statistically have been identified by Vincent as well. The comps for the week in the model are below with a look at how recent winners have performed at each venue:
Riv: Clark T8, Rose T4, Hoge 8, Mickelson W
Torrey: Rose W, Hoge 5, Berger T7, Mickelson 2
TPC River Highlands: Hoge T3, Berger 2
Harbour Town: Clark T3, Berger T3
Colonial: Rose W, Berger W, Mickelson W
Waialae: Rose 2, Hoge 3, Berger T7, Taylor W, Potter T7
Sawgrass: Clark T2, Rose T4, Hoge T3, Berger T9, Mickelson W
Strokes Gained Weights:
SG P (11%)
SG ARG (5%)
SG APP (16%)
SG OTT (8%)
SG TOTAL (7%)
Additional Weights:
COURSE HIST (10%)
COMP (7%) - Riv, Torrey, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Colonial, Waialae, Sawgrass
PROX 50-125 (8%)
PROX 200+ (8%)
ONE PUTT % (10%)
PUTT 4-8’ (10%)
Notes & Early Odds Board
Weather has been nice in the area for a while now and so far the forecast appears to remain relatively dry. That should lead to a relatively more firm Pebble than recent years. The one thing that we won’t have is much wind though, so iron players should be able to extend their edge with plenty of birdie looks through controlled shots into the firmer greens.
Adam Early Odds Board Look
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Always seems too good to be true, but at least he remains elevated above some of the other non-recent winners above him and this is a classic Cantlay spot. Has dog just needs to get into the mix more often.
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Obligatory notice that Hideki is once again 25/1.
Sam Burns +4000
This is a spot he has had some success and overall his California record is solid as the putter tends to travel out west. This is also a spot his wedge play gives him the opportunity to generate a rare spike week on approach.
Keegan Bradley +5000
The man continues to fire on all cylinders and the price is reasonable considering the winning upside. A few questions about the putter but he can pop.
Adam Scott +7000
Another guy with a good California track record, and he demonstrated his ability to still mix in the second half of last year. Price seems higher than it should be all things considered.
Tom Hoge +9000
It’s probably a bit too obvious for the former winner, but the price isn’t terrible and he is in very similar form to the approach form that won him this event over big names at the time.
Nick Dunlap +10000
This should be Nick Dun spot with his elite wedge and long iron play with spike upside on the greens as well. Much better time to play Pebble than it was fresh off his turning pro last year.
Gary Woodland +12000
Back to the spot of his greatest career triumph and playing very nice golf of late with increasing signs of confidence in the iron play that he will need here.
Matt Early Odds Board Look
Collin Morikawa +1400
Collin in California is always an appealing deal, and this number seems fair in my opinion. I can see him being a popular option, but you can surely build a card starting here. He finished T14 in this event last year, gaining strokes across the board and putting particularly well.
Ludvig Åberg +1800
I wonder how much Lud will drift. He played really well in this event last year and has put in some quality reps to start 2025. He should cakewalk through these par 5s and give himself wedge looks everywhere else. That said, I don’t see him winning.
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Pat is getting some early love, and for good reason. This is an event he’s played often and performed well at. My eyes saw great things in Hawaii, where he’s started the year with a T15 and T5. His approach play has been shaky, but if this number drifts closer to 20, I could get on board.
Viktor Hovland +3500
Adam and I saw a 55 on Hovland during Sunday night’s recording, but clearly the market disagreed with DK’s original number. Vik won the U.S. Amateur here but has never cracked the top 10 in a professional event at this course. He speaks highly of the place, but his game is in shambles. If he can’t perform in Dubai, he won’t perform here.
Taylor Pendrith +4500
I’m really high on Pendrith’s all-around skill set and his ability to get into the mix. He finished T7 here in 2023 and has had a strong start to 2025. His ball-striking has been excellent, which is a great sign.
Rasmus Højgaard +5500
As we know, only one Højgaard brother can play well at a time, and Rasmus has been on a tear over the last few months. He’s a guy who can fill it up and go really low. We saw his brother pop immediately at the start of 2024—why can’t Ras do the same? That said, I think this number could drift closer to 80, so I’d hold off for now.
Ben An +5500
Maybe DK mixed up Ben and Vik’s odds on Sunday. This is a better number on Ben as one of the “bombers” who could contend here. However, his approach play has been woeful lately, and he hasn’t hit his irons well at this course in the past. I do love him with wedges, though—he’s someone to keep an eye on.
Sahith Theegala +6000
I think this is a really good number, but I’m hesitant to chase Theegala for a third straight event at a personal number. I’m not worried about his form, and I can totally see a scenario where he contends. He’s in California, he’s volatile in a good way, and this is surely a bettable number.
Akshay Bhatia +7500
This is absolutely an Akshay course, and it’s an amazing betting number. He’s no stranger to mixing it up in big events, either. His only trip here resulted in a T30 back in 2021—when he was just 18 years old. He hit 18 greens in his opening round that week, which was incredibly impressive.
Min Woo Lee +8000
This is purely a betting number that caught my eye. Two spots where Min Woo popped were TPC Sawgrass and PGA National. While they’re not perfect comps, “tougher” shorter courses do draw some comparisons. We’re still waiting on the weather outlook, but if it gets windy, that would play in Min’s favor. He’s missed both cuts here, but those were three years ago.