Masters Preview

There will be plenty written this week about “the trends” at Augusta, so let’s just get those out of the way quickly. Many of the trends continue on for quite a while, but to keep things as relevant as possible we will look at the last decade:

Best Previous Masters Finish for Winners: 2, 38, 4, 22, 1, 2, 5, 18, 5, 1

Best Previous Major Finish for Winners: 2, 6, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1, 1

Best Major Finish Previous Eight Majors for Winners: 2, 6, 5, 2, 2, 13, 4, 1, 1

Have played alright at the Masters.

Have firmly mixed in previous majors.

Have firmly mixed in previous majors recently.

Alright, not rocket science there but it has to be mentioned because the rest of the course conversation should be caveated by the fact that these additional trends shrink the pool of contenders ever further.

Now, to the course.

We often hear about the creative challenge that exists at Augusta, and in some ways that is true - especially around the greens. However, we are seeing a continued path towards straight and long driving being the name of the game here. With additional length added to the venue in recent years, we have seen it directly impact the top of the leaderboard with a significant shift from approach play to driving being the key ball striking category.

Last year, the Top 2 finishers were 7th (Scheffler) and 3rd (Aberg) in Distance. They ranked 2nd and 5th on the week OTT.

In 2023, Rahm and Koepka separated from the field for a vast majority of the event ranking 9th and 7th in Distance. Rahm pulled away to win by four ranking 2nd on the week OTT, gaining more than six strokes. It was cool and damp that week which further emphasized the driving keys, and there should be some softness this week as well.

In 2022, Scottie was 8th in Distance and Rory was 2nd. They finished 9th and 4th on the week OTT.

Augusta has always favored strong driving, especially in how it impacts Par 5 Scoring, but it’s only increased in importance in recent years. There just isn’t really a path to the top of the leaderboard this week that isn’t built on top of elite driving. You can play solidly enough with good approach play and a nice short game, but anytime a venue has seen the last three winners combine to gain over 15 shots OTT you don’t need to overthink it. We have a driving test.

The increased impact OTT is the starting point this week and a requirement that shrinks the pool of contenders. However, this remains a complete test and even though we see decreasing APP figures in the winner’s stat lines in recent years we have to respect the spike approach figures that winners have shown coming into the event. As the ability to gain significantly here OTT has increased it becomes a bit harder to put up spike approach weeks, but the elite iron play needed to win here can be seen via those incoming spike approach figures. Here are how many spike (+4 SG) events winner’s had over their 10 starts coming into their Masters win:

2024 Scheffler: 8/10

2023 Rahm: 4/10

2022 Scheffler: 4/10

2021 Hideki: 3/10

A good chunk of the field simply doesn’t have the driving ability or upside in their iron play to win this week. We will be lucky to even find a handful of players that fit the driving and spike iron play trends before even considering the Masters trends that started this article. Surely we can come up with a lot of fun scenarios where someone random wins, but this longer - at times softer - version of Augusta requires some of the best driving in the field and some of the most proven upside on approach as well.

All of this under consideration, we haven’t even gotten to ARG play which is really what makes this a unique strokes gained picture.

When we look to the winner profiles we see that in fact it’s neither OTT nor APP which is the highest impact stat on the entire stat line. The last four winners have combined to gain over 22 strokes ARG. Just like you can’t win here without elite driving and proven iron play upside, you’re very unlikely to win without one of the most elite and proven short games in the field.

The good news is that like the driving and approach form above, we are able to see this ARG ability shine through in winner’s incoming form. Here are spike ARG figures for winners here in their 10 incoming starts as well as how many positive ARG performances they had in that time frame:

2024 Scheffler: 2 Spikes (9/10 positive)

2023 Rahm: 1 Spike (8/10 positive)

2022 Scheffler: 2 Spikes (9/10 positive)

2021 Hideki: 2 Spikes (7/10 positive)

Frankly, spike ARG weeks are pretty rare when looking at incoming form for winners of any event so the fact that this is shared across winners here is quite unique. It adds a third layer to one of the most elite incoming stat profiles that you’re ever going to see for any event. It’s the Masters for a reason and honestly it’s nice to see that the stat profiles back up the elite nature of the event.

The good news is that we do have a bit of leeway with the flatstick. You have to be competent with the putter but a spike week is certainly not required on the greens and a vast majority of the work on the stat line is going to be done in the T2G categories described above.

Now, due to the high bars outlined above let’s just see who even fits the profile this week. We’re looking for players with at least three spike approach events and a spike ARG event with 70% positive ARG efforts over their last 10 starts. On the OTT front, we have seen Scheffler and Rahm combine for 10 spike OTT events in their 10 incoming starts, but we will be generous and require just one spike OTT event for this filter. Here is who fits that without considering the major and Masters history above:

Keegan

Brooks

Bob Mac

Collin

Xander

JT

A pretty compelling list actually, and certainly some bettable names/numbers there. Of those six, all but Keegan also fit the Masters history trends from the start:

For many of the reasons above, it’s definitely not a week where I am going to be using comp courses much. There are strong statistical trends we can turn to, but the COMPs this week are also compelling when we consider the number of wins shared by champions at these events and their strong correlations across the field. The venues making up the COMPs this week are Muirfield Village, Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass, Torrey Pines, and Riviera.