Valero Event Preview

TPC San Antonio

San Antonio, Texas

Weather

It’s another week where Texas winds should be a part of the story, and the forecast so far is for slightly stronger winds than those we saw in Houston. With not a ton of precipitation to be concerned about either, we should expect relatively firm and challenging conditions this week. We’ve seen winners in the -12 to -20 range over recent years here and I’d lean towards things falling more in the -14 area this year if those winds stay true over the opening three days.

Overall these aren’t unusual conditions for this time of the year and the course should play very true to it’s historically high ball striking standards.

So far it also doesn’t seem like a giant edge for either set of tee times but the Friday afternoon winds seem the most daunting of the opening two rounds and there very likely could be a slight edge to the PM/AM groups. It’s another week where it doesn’t need to be a drastic part of making selections but it’s a compelling differentiator between equal guys and worth monitoring tomorrow if there is any major changes.

Adam Field Notes

  • At the end of the day this event has clear trends in the importance of significant upside on approach and steady OTT play. The weather should be a bit testy as well and all evidence points to this being a week where the cream of the T2G crop is going to elevate themselves. For me, it felt like a week to not get overly fancy and trust the trends and stats discussed in the course preview. The model has performed well at this event historically due to the high ball striking thresholds and if it’s not broken don’t fix it.

  • With that, probably worth going through the guys high in the model that aren’t on the final card:

    • Hideki - Fully deserving of the top spot statistically and having one of the best short spurts of his career. Floor seems sky high but it came down to Conners vs Deki for me, and the course history plus reliability OTT from Conners outweighed the recent spike performances from Deki. Very keen on him next week though so hopefully he delivers a solid but not spectacular effort.

    • Rory - Seems like every year of late he picks off a win the week before a major, but too many ball striking question marks for me to trust him to do it as the favorite.

    • Ludvig - Checks all the boxes and has familiarity with the area. Originally I leaned Rory in the Lud vs Rory match up but the stats have sucked me into the Ludvig side. Not a good outright price though IMO with only a poor amateur start for course history.

    • EVR - Price is very fair but seems destined for another of the Top 20ish finishes he’s been delivering all year. That’s definitely not a bad thing though.

    • Billy Ho - Sounded extremely confident in his presser, probably a bad bias to have but I can’t chase the number when it’s half of what it was last week with a deeper top of the board here.

    • Noren - Very high floor especially if it’s windy. I just can’t bet a lifetime loser at these odds.

    • Lashley - Trending everywhere except OTT and I worry about that here with not great course history either.

    • Ghim - Heater might be over, monitoring from sidelines.

    • Mitchell - You don’t need amazing ARG play here but you have to have some ability and the Keith short game is even below the low bar I have this week.

    • Harman - I nearly bet Harman. Under the radar and as capable as anyone else in this field.

    • Harris - Another high floor guy but not enough faith he can spike in key areas with an average course history.

  • I’m completely fine if Spieth, Max, Collin, Tommy, Scott, An, or Henley win. Not enough of a discount for me in their prices with how big the statistical question marks are for them at a place with clear incoming approach and T2G trends.

  • Same story with someone like Tom Kim who definitely makes sense course fit wise here but there are others more trustworthy from an incoming form perspective and TK doesn’t have course history to point to either.

  • Ryan Moore isn’t sneaking up on anyone this week and at some point I expect his name has to be on the leaderboard. That said, I would also be truly stunned if he won. But the hype with his ball striking is real and the course history is great.

  • I don’t think it’s a good enough OTT set up for Phillips, but certainly has the iron play ability to keep this hot stretch going.

  • Came very close to betting Bud Cauley. Couldn’t pull the trigger though against this field at his price.

  • Seems like a Bez +8 approach week with a -1 OTT to finish comfortably T14.

  • Two more volatile ball strikers that didn’t make the card but are interesting in other formats are Kevin Yu and Victor Perez. This is a Kevin Yu course and the spike upside has been there this year. And, Perez is having one of the steadiest ball striking stretches in the field.

  • Random KFT guy play of the week - Jacob Bridgeman.

  • I don’t understand why Davis Thompson can’t find any consistency but this is a Davis Thompson golf course.

  • The biggest risk of the week feels like jumping of the Novak train. Really hope he doesn’t win.

  • Hodges another one to watch at a big number off a great effort here last year.

  • I love both Nicolai and Ryo every week and no argument with their prices this week. Both are fair. But also don’t really have enough conviction with either of their forms to pull the trigger this week.

  • Overall ended up going with a couple of players in each range - range of despair, no man’s land, and long shots. It’s definitely a strong enough field at the top that despite really wanting to ignore the range of despair I wasn’t able to fully do it because I did like some of the numbers. So grabbed those prices up top that seemed the best risk/reward and then filled in the card with bigger prices that can flush it.

Outright Bets

Adam’s Selections

Corey Conners +2500

Conners absolutely dominates this course with his ball striking and he comes in this week hitting it better than anyone in the field over a variety of time periods. I didn’t enter the week planning on betting the Conners repeat but without any of the other “big names” hitting it better than him I ended up being down at 25/1. He sounded focused and excited in his presser as well so going to hope his robot like play that works so well here continues.

Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

Fitz fits the profile of guys who have won here in the sense that he rides the wave of one of the best ball striking starts he has had in a long time at Sawgrass last time out. We know his ability in more challenging scoring conditions as well and despite a lack of course history his success at Harbour Town is notable as the top comp course this week. Of the marquee names this week only Harman beat him last time out at Sawgrass and yet 30s are out there on him this week in the firm conditions he excels in.

Akshay Bhatia +6600

Akshay also comes in off of a career iron play performance and with his extended stretch of elite driving he really seems like a poster child for the type of guy we are after this week. Has made a couple of starts here already in his young career and looked quite comfortable on these Texas greens last week.

Aaron Rai +6600

The model loves the extremely consistent play of Rai who hits a boat load of fairways and tons of greens as well. He has been bringing that part of his game to the table for a while now but there are finally signs of life with the putter as well. He’s had tons of success on these surfaces in consecutive Top 30 finishes here, and due to that I’ll swallow a less than stellar price this week.

Lucas Glover +9000

Top 10 in the field T2G across multiple time frames and trending off of a nice performance at Valspar where there were positive signs with the putter. He comes to a place where his T2G play in his career has been stellar and he finished 4th in 2021. A top comp this week as well - Sedgefield.

Austin Eckroat +11000

Not really sure why Eckroat is still at extended odds after winning at PGA National and solidifying himself as one of best up and coming T2G talents on the PGA Tour. Followed up his win with pretty steady efforts at API and Players, and his previous career best finish is here in Texas where he was runner up at the Byron Nelson last year.

Adam Svensson +20000

This one is directly from the pod and our utter shock at Svenny at these prices when you consider the quality of T2G player he is. Matches the trending approach play trend with a +4.2 effort last week, and has the ability to combine accuracy and plus distance OTT. The question is the putter but the number outweighs that question for me.

Grayson Murray +35000

Grayson was absolutely pure in the practice rounds at Sawgrass and then posted an extremely respectable +5.1 ball striking figure. He played well here in his only career start in 2018 and with three wins in his last 25 starts I’ll take a swing at 350/1.

Matt’s Selections

Matt Fitzptarick +2800

Gaining eight strokes ball striking and another seven putting is crazy for just a fifth place finish which was his result in his last start. He has shown the ability to pop once and win in the next start. Fitz is a golfer I am high on at a macro level to take the next step in 2024. By that, I mean I think he can win while not being in flawless form. 

Collin Morikawa +3200

We are getting the drift on Collin. Iron play is extremely important on a course like this and Collin is a generational iron player. His iron form is not the best but I am willing to take a chance on one of the better iron players on the PGA Tour at this number. Plus, his last two “weak” events have resulted in a win and a T2. 

Tom Kim +6300

I mentioned I wanted to wait and see before we bought TK but this number is a sure buy. His form is not great but he is a deadly accurate driver and elite iron player at the core. Plus, some of the top corollary courses to TPC San Antonio are TPC Summerlin and Sedgfield which are both places TK has won at. (S/o Adam for the course comps)

Keith Mitchell +7500

Absurd number on Keith. Yes I know he really lacks guts but he is hitting his irons better than he has in his entire career. Keith can surely bomb and gouge this place and he has played well here before. 

Nicolai Hojgaard +8300

Nico had his worst performance in terms of strokes gained in his short 2024 PGA Tour Career but he has the makings to play anywhere. It is a tad concerning that he has lost on approach in back to back starts but he has had two weeks to find it again because that is the best part of his game and will need it to be clicking in order to compete. This number is way too long on a golfer who knows how to win and has the tools to be a top five player in the world.

Austin Eckroat +11000

Eckroat won a month ago and is getting no respect. The dude went to College in Oklahoma and surely knows how to deal with the Texas winds. He continues to hit his irons really well and clearly knows how to win. 

Vic Perez +12500

Vic Perez flop flag worked out very well and I will continue to play him if he is not odd chalk like he was in Tampa. He continues to gain strokes ball striking which will treat him well anywhere. He can dial in the accuracy if he needs to which will treat him well here. Outside of that, he is parlaying great iron week after great iron week. 

Ryo Hisatsune +12500

Not the number I was looking for on Ryo but I love the course fit. He is an accurate driver and a solid iron player. He also has a great ARG game which will treat him well here. He is playing solid golf and has 0 fear, Ryo can win in any field. 

Seamus Power +15000

Now three straight weeks in which Power has gained on approach. He does not have the best results here but the form is rounding. When Seamus gets hot, he gets hot. Two time winner on tour heading to a course that rewards great approach play. No brainer here.

Adam Svensson +17500

I truly believe Sven is close and the stats would suggest that. He had an amazing week on approach and has really been popping on leaderboards over the last few weeks. This is a course that fits his game and he is showing the right signs. Adam and I were shocked to see this number on Svensson as I believe he should be much closer to 100 than 200.