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TPC Louisiana

New Orleans, LA

Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts

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Obviously, this is one of the vibe-iest tournaments of the year, and Strokes Gained: “I Like That Team” is always a defensible strategy. But as always, we try to anchor the card in something a tad more detailed and there is a clear stylistic pattern that keeps showing up here.

In my view, having at least one Driver/Putter on the team is borderline essential. Pair that player with a strong iron player—or even a second Driver/Putter type—and I’m in. That setup not only fits the course but plays directly into how the format rewards aggression.

This is a venue where rough penalty is minimal, and you can often carry hazards or take a side of the course out of play altogether. That’s a green light to send it. Combine that with a format where half the tournament is best ball, and we’re not just at a venue that supports aggressive play - it encourages it. The player who benefits most from that setup is the one with a head start off the tee and the ability to convert with the putter: Driver/Putter, or put a different way, Bomb-and-Gouge.

If you look at just the T4 or better finishers from the last two years, that profile is everywhere, especially among some of the more "random" names near the top of the board:

  • Trainer, Brehm, Higgo/Fox, Stevens/Barjon, Fishburn, Greyserman, Hardy, Clark/Hossler, Taylor Moore — all of them bring that DNA.

For teams not pairing together Driver/Putter players, we see another path: iron play merchants alongside the Driver/Putter player. These iron upside players may be inconsistent, but when they pop over their careers it’s driven by elite approach weeks. Think:

  • Ramey with Trainer

  • Hubbard with Brehm

  • Blair with Fishburn

  • Nico Ech (generational flusher) with Greyserman

  • Riley with Hardy

  • NeSmith with Moore

And frankly, even in the favorites, we see this same blueprint. Rory brings elite Driver/Putter traits, and Shane fills the Iron Merchant role. They're more talented than most pairings, surely but they also reflect the same successful construction we’ve seen really succeed here across the top of the board. In fact, we’ve seen top-tier teams flame out in this event when they don’t really match the skill composition the course rewards.

We also have an additional layer that we can add which is course history, and not necessarily as a team. When we just look at where each individual has previously finished in this event before their T3 or better finish, we see a steady set of results regardless of who they were partnered with:

  • Rory (DNS) / Lowry (13th)

  • Ramey (T9) / Trainer (T9)

  • Brehm (T14) / Hubbard (T14)

  • Hardy (T21) / Riley (T4)

  • Hadwin (T13) / Taylor (T9)

  • Clark (T10) / Hossler (MC)

So while historical team chemistry may matter, we shouldn’t overlook a combination with strong previous results even if not together.

And we can’t forget it’s #BermudaSzn and no matter what the event is we can use that to our advantage.

Conditions this week look about as benign as it gets. That means aggressive play will be even more rewarded, and Driver/Putter types will thrive. Let’s roll with that.

DFS

$9K+ (2 Pick & 1 Fade)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Rory McIlroy + Shane Lowry $12,400 – Locking in these two still leaves you with $7,520 per player for your remaining five spots. I love the value range down there, and I promise a ton of 6K/7K lineups will contend. Rory and Shane offer too high of a floor to leave out of your builds.

      • Sahith Theegala + Aaron Rai $9,200 – Rai has a strong track record at this event—typically alongside David Lipsky—but gets a serious upgrade teaming with Sahith, who brings immense upside. This duo balances consistency and volatility and could be an under-owned key to unlocking the slate.

    • Fade

      • Thomas Detry + Robert MacIntyre $10,300 – Not a dislike, but more a pricing issue. You can find similar upside for significantly less than $10.3K.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • McIlroy + Lowry $12,400 –I mimic what Jerz says here honestly, I don’t have a ton to add. Plenty of random teams down the board will mix and even the slightest level of focus makes them the clear class of the field to anchor lineups.

      • Moore + Clark $9,500 - A vintage Driver/Putter combo and both players have successful performances here previously. Just what we are after.

    • Fade

      • Kurt + Collin $10,700 - I don’t think they’re that much better on paper than some of the other teams in this range and therefore I can’t pay the premium.

$8K (2 Pick & 1 Fade)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Adam Hadwin + Nick Taylor $8,600 – The Canadians take this event seriously and have shown well in previous editions. Their styles mesh nicely, and their comfort level playing together is a plus.

      • Matt Fitzpatrick + Alex Fitzpatrick $8,000 – Another team that’s all-in on this event. A win here would be massive for Alex’s future status. Matt is also coming off his best ball-striking week since the 2024 Players, and they’ve played well here before.

    • Fade

      • Garrick Higgo + Ryan Fox $8,400 – This feels a touch overpriced. Sure, the ceiling exists, but the missed-cut equity is way too high for this range.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Garnett + Straka $8,800 - I like the birdie making ability of this combination especially with the form Straka is in. Add in their favored surfaces and they are a real threat to win.

      • Tosti + Highsmith $8,200 - This is such a random duo but it also really fits the course. They likely know this and I am intrigued to see how it pays off.

    • Fade

      • Olesen + Wallace $8,700 - Nothing against a DP AF combination but they don’t inherently fit the course and are overpriced versus the rest of this range.

$7K (6 Picks)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Chan Kim + Doug Ghim $7,800 – As Adam put it: your favorite flusher’s favorite flushers. These two are elite ball-strikers and both are trending nicely heading into this week.

      • Erik van Rooyen + Christian Bezuidenhout $7,700 – EVR tends to pop when his price dips, and C-Bez brings a high, steady floor. They offer great cut-making potential, which is essential this week.

      • Cam Davis + Adam Svensson $7,600 – This team is a highlight reel waiting to happen. Both guys can get hot and make birdies in bunches, giving you a strong ceiling play.

      • Chris Gotterup + Quade Cummins $7,500 – The Oklahoma duo has strong chemistry and plenty of firepower. Gotterup's driver can spark birdie runs, and Cummins has shown real flashes as a rookie.

      • Victor Perez + Matthieu Pavon $7,400 – The Frenchmen have shown they can go low, especially with their iron play. Pavon isn’t in peak form, but their ceiling together is still very intriguing.

      • Pierceson Coody + Jackson Suber $7,000 – Two hungry young guns. Coody usually capitalizes on limited PGA Tour starts, and Suber has looked comfortable on TPC setups.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Svenny + CD $7,600 - Not a lot of combos with three combined Tour wins over the last couple of years in this range, and I like the course fit as well.

      • Phillips + Bridges $7,600 - A team that should enjoy the surfaces a lot and Bridgeman is as sharp as almost anyone in the field as of late.

      • Walker + Gerrard $7,500 - Gerard is looking like a real top level player in his debut Tour season, and Walker provides Distance + upside across the bag,

      • Cauley + Tway $7,300 - Seems like a very similar build to some of the random teams that mixed last year and Cauley is arriving miles above anyone was on those teams

      • Paul Brothers $7,300 - Rounding into form at the perfect time with Yannik playing his best golf in ages in China last time out

      • Blair + Fishburn $7,100 - It worked last year and they arrive this year off of T18, T5 finishes respectively

$6K (6 Picks)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Mac Meissner + Noah Goodwin $6,900 – Meissner is the real deal—very complete game. Goodwin has shown recent form, including three solid rounds at Valero.

      • Isaiah Salinda + Kevin Velo $6,800 – Both have flashed in their rookie seasons. For this price, they’ve shown they can contend and bring some value.

      • Matt McCarty + Mason Anderson $6,600 – Anderson might lower the duo’s floor a bit, but McCarty is a PGA Tour winner who just played well at Augusta. Both are Arizona guys and familiar with each other’s games.

      • Will Gordon + Matt Riedel $6,400 – I’ve seen these two playing practice rounds together quite a bit. Riedel had a solid showing in Houston, and Gordon’s length offers real birdie potential.

      • Kaito Onishi + Rikuya Hoshino $6,200 – Onishi has quietly been a strong DFS contributor this year. The chemistry is real—these two often play together and know each other’s games well.

      • Hayden Buckley + Brayden Thornberry $6,000 – Buckley thrives on Bermuda, and Thornberry still has game despite being off the radar. Seeing him live, I’m convinced he can compete.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Silverman + Valimaki $6,900 - This is a team who will either run white hot or ice cold but the risk is worth the reward down here

      • Ventura + Rozner $6,800 - Capable of spiking across the bag and both bring the Distance + Aggressive play we’re after this week

      • Duncan + Schenk $6,700 - Both players that don’t arrive very dialed but have steady historical success in this event to build upon from under the radar

      • Cone + Roy $6,600 - Big hitter + ball striking maestro provides a high floor for this range

      • Montgomery + Pak $6,400 - This is another interesting combo where Monty can Bomb and G while Pak drills high quality iron shots. Compelling build.

      • Knox + Malnati +$6,200 - Multiple time winners on the PGA Tour and we will take that upside all the way down here in this event

Outright Bets

Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.

Adam (+2.2 Point YTD; this week is to win +8.5 points)

Moore/Clark on Bet365, everyone else BetOnline.

Moore/Clark +2200

On paper this is the ideal Driver/Putter combination we are after and they have strong individual histories here to draw upon as well. Moore has a couple of T4 finishes over the last few years in this event and Clark was 3rd here alongside Driver/Putter Hossler in 2023. Both bring win equity to the table and they stood out to me as the clear option to start the card.

Walker/Gerard +6000

I am really impressed by the numbers Gerard is putting up across the bag this year and the iron play is a real weapon. That will combine with Walker who can send it OTT and has demonstrated serious ability to mix on similar golf courses this season. I like the potential here even if we’re not getting the very best number.

Davis/Svenny +7500

I have a soft spot for both of these guys but they really do stand out as recognizable names and Tour winners in a spot of the board where there is a lot of meh combinations. That is enough for me to take a chance on them considering I don’t mind having at least one vibe based team on the card this week.

Tway/Cauley +8000

Driver/Putter, PGA Tour winner, Kevin Tway + Generational Ball Striking Heater, Bud Cauley. Yes, please.

Fishburn/Blair +9000

They’re coming into this event in better form than they were last year and they obviously still fit the profile we’re after. I’m not really sure why they are 90/1 which could be a trap, but that risk is fine for me at this number.

Lashley/Springer +11000

Springer is exactly the type of aggressive player we’re looking for to anchor a long shot team here and Lashley has significant upside with the iron play. They come into the event with nine straight made cuts and are certainly capable of climbing into the mix this week at a price.

Matt (-0.7 Point YTD; this week is to win +7.3 points)

Adam is taking a much more nuanced approach this week, while I’m leaning fully into vibes and pairings that either “want it” or carry serious upside. At Corales, I overanalyzed things and ended up drifting too far into the stats. Not this time—I’m trusting my gut. I know enough ball to ride feel on a week like this.

Keith Mitchell / J.T. Poston +2200

Keith is playing some phenomenal golf right now, and maybe Posty’s energy is exactly what he needs to finally close one out. He’s struggled to finish strong solo, but this format takes some pressure off. After the Rory/Shane duo, the top of the board drops off fast—this pairing has win equity at 22/1.

Nicolai & Rasmus Højgaard +3500

You’re telling me I can place one bet and get both of the Hojs? What more do I need to say. Win or missed cut will not shock me but these two obviously have the talent to to boat race this feild. I can see them making 18 birdies in the four ball format. Might be on the same hole, but theres a world in which these two shoot 54 in that format and 90 in alt shot. The volatility we live for. 

Adam Hadwin / Nick Taylor +4500

This number feels too long for the class of these two. They’ve played this event before, and it’s clear how much they care about it. Full Swing gave us a glimpse of how badly they wanted to win. At 45/1, I’ll gladly ride with that motivation.

Beau Hossler / Andrew Putnam +8000

This just feels like a Beau Hossler week. Honestly, they feel like first-round leader locks. From there? Who knows. They’re both streaky enough to get hot at the same time—and that’s all you need in this format.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Erik van Rooyen +9000

I love betting EVR when his number drifts in weak fields, and this is exactly that spot. Both of these guys love Bermuda and have shown the ability to heat up across all facets. At 90/1? I’m in. 

Patton Kizzire / Ben Kohles +20000

Kizzire got back in the winner’s circle recently, and Kohles had a strong pop around this time last year. I’m still really high on Kohles—he has a higher ceiling than most give him credit for and thrives in easy scoring conditions. At 200/1, they’re more than worth a sprinkle.

Vincent (-4.9 Point YTD; this week is to win +9.1 points)

Detry / MacIntyre (+2000)

This pairing brings the aggressive driver mentality that thrives at TPC Louisiana. Detry provides the essential Driver/Putter component while MacIntyre contributes elite off-the-tee play as well. Their combined firepower should excel on a course where minimal rough penalty encourages aggressive play. They offer strong value among favorites with a skill composition perfectly aligned with the course demands.

Ryder / Hoey (+5000)

A perfect skill marriage for TPC Louisiana. Ryder's elite putting gives them complemented by Hoey's strong iron play. The best ball format will particularly benefit Ryder's putting prowess and Hoey's consistent approach game, making them a premium value play at these midrange odds.

Norgaard / Svensson (+5000)

A double Driver/Putter specialist team built for attacking TPC Louisiana. Both players bring elite putting and impressive distance, creating the perfect storm for a course that rewards aggressive play. Their complementary aggressive styles should thrive in best ball format, where they can attack pins following powerful drives. With both capable of spike putting performances, they embody exactly what the course rewards - the confidence to attack and the putting touch to convert.

Putnam / Hossler (+8000)

The ideal Driver/Putter + Iron specialist pairing that mirrors the winning blueprint. Putnam delivers precision approach play while Hossler brings the aggressive style needed for best ball success. Hossler has past success here, and this new pairing maintains that winning formula. Their complementary skills create tremendous longshot value for a team with the exact composition historically rewarded at this venue.