PGA Preview
Quail Hollow Club
Charlotte, NC
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
As usual on a week like this, everything about how we expect the course to play can be found in the Course Preview and Boots Report. There is no need to further overthink things there.
We’ve talked a lot about the weather’s impact on playing conditions in those write-ups, but it’s also worth noting there could be an effect on wave splits:
Early Thursday looks like it may offer the most favorable conditions—relatively softer greens and lighter wind. There’s a chance of some overnight rain, and as discussed, the greens will continue to dry out—so, in theory, you want to get out as early as possible. Combine that with a possible one-club difference in wind between Thursday AM and PM, and you’ve got a potential early edge.
This isn’t something that will ruin anyone’s chances, but a head start is a head start if it plays out that way. It wasn’t a major factor in my selections this week, but whenever there’s even a modest possibility for a weather edge, it’s worth keeping in mind.
It certainly doesn’t help the rest of the field that both Rory and Scottie are off early tomorrow—neither of them needs any kind of head start.
DFS
$10K+ (1 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Scottie Scheffler $13,400 – One look at Scottie this week was enough to get me back on board from a DFS perspective. This might be one of the rare times where there's real ownership leverage in choosing Scottie over Rory or Bryson. People are fading him due to the lack of recent reps, but let me tell you—he’ll find fairways, and from there, he’s arguably the best long iron player in the world.
Fade
Xander Schauffele $10,700 – I recently referenced a DataGolf blog showing Xander’s significant drop in driving accuracy this year. It aligns with what a caddie told us: Xander’s seeing launch angles he's not used to, which explains his struggles. Visually, he looked off and was lost off the tee. Playing with Rory and Scottie, he may press a bit too hard, which could lead to bogeys.
Adam
Picks
Rory McIlroy $12,200 - I’m not usually a Rory guy and I can definitely come up with some narratives why he may not be fully dialed but not going to overthink it. All time confident Rory on his all time confident course.
Fade
Jon Rahm $10,200 - It’s always going to be difficult to choose a fade up here, but even in great form this wasn’t a course where Rahm wowed in his two appearances. Better risk/reward elsewhere.
$9K (2 Picks & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Justin Thomas $9,900 – Sometimes you need chalk to succeed, and JT might be good chalk at Quail Hollow. Don’t overthink it—his recent form and course history suggest he’s going to play well here.
Jordan Spieth $9,300 – Spieth is doing two things really well right now—one of them is driving the ball. If he has a plus driving week, he’ll create birdie chances. He’ll be slightly overlooked at this price but still brings a top-5 ceiling.
Fade
Brooks Koepka $9,700 – Brooks has been underwhelming on the LIV circuit, and this price feels a bit inflated. As a LIV player and a household name, he’ll get clicks. If our guys outperform a potentially chalky Brooks, we’ll be in great shape.
Adam
Picks
Patrick Cantlay $9,500 - As described in the outright section I don’t think the pricing on Pat across the board makes sense this week. Yes the narrative is bad but the numbers are as good as ever.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,100 - This is ideal set up for Tommy to backdoor another major Top 5. Comes in dialed and has played well here before, perfect for a Sunday 64.
Fade
Brooks Koepka $9,700 – I actually would fully support an outright bet on Brooks but don’t think you’re getting very good risk/reward in this format.
$8K (2 Picks & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Min Woo Lee $8,600 – Just drive it well, Woozy. He’s already flashed his ceiling this year and in past majors. I can absolutely see him bettering his T5 at LACC if the driver cooperates.
Corey Conners $8,300 – I trust Conners to mint fairways this week, and from there, you’re giving one of the world’s best long iron players exactly what he wants.
Fade
Cam Smith $8,400 – Yes, Cam has quietly gained strokes off the tee in his last two LIV starts, but he’s failed to gain strokes ball striking in six of his last nine events. That’s unserious stuff, and it won’t cut it on a big-boy track.
Adam
I didn’t realize Jerz was going to make the same selections in this range, but in the spirit of saving people’s time I think he’s described my feelings here as well so nothing to add.
Picks
Min Woo Lee $8,600
Corey Conners $8,300
Fade
Cam Smith $8,400
Favorite plays down the board ($5K, $6K, $7K)
Matt
Picks
Daniel Berger $7,900 – Boog’s ball striking is nearly back to Ryder Cup level. He still has the mentality that he is a top player in the world and that is a ton of value at 7.9K.
Maverick McNealy $7,800 – Real @JerzWayBetting truthers know I once called a 25 year old Mav McNealy a young Rory and that was due to his driver putter prowess and ceiling he possessed. He looks very confident this week and is playing with captain Keegan, a lot on his plate, but he will be focused.
Keegan Bradley $7,200 – I think this is far too cheap a price on Keegan. What we saw last week in the practice rounds was so damn good, he simply putt poorly. He is one of the “non bombers” who can make it happen with a great approach week.
Thomas Detry $7,000 – Another driver-putter who actually posted his best approach week since the end of March.
Aaron Rai $6,800 – A golfer who will mint fairways and is generally an amazing long iron player. He has a win on NC Bermuda as well.
Nicolai Hojgaard $6,500 – Nico has been extremely volatile but the one thing that has stayed consistent is the elite driving.
Bud Cauley $6,200 – You get Bud on some Bermuda and great things can take place. Cauly’s caddie has been walking these parts for the last month and knows this course better than most, they are ready and have a great attitude. Also love what Bud has proved with the ball striking.
Keith Mitchell $6,200 – Another old @JerzWayBetting take was that you do not overthink it, you play Keith on Rory courses…
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,100 – I have been to nine or ten events this season and have seen great things from Bez in two of them. Those were the only times he gained strokes ball striking since July. Hoping what I saw from Bez carries over into this week. He did in fact finish T16 here last year.
Ryan Gerard $6,000 – Course record holder at 7,900 yard Bermuda golf course, Panther National. All of his best results are bermuda and he is in fact a UNC Tarheel.
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra $5,800 – Not many want it more than ELC. After leaving LIV, he re-focused and has done nothing but stripe the DPWT to oblivion. His win at the brutally difficult DLF Golf and CC in India was a masterclass in ball striking. He followed that up with a T4 and T11.
Ben Griffin $5,700 – Did in fact hit one Publix while in Charlotte. The cash register lady asked me if I was here for the golf. I of course replied yes and she then went on to ask me if I realized this was Ben Griffin’s best chance at a high finish in the major. I replied with, “Well of course, he’s driven it much better this year and we are on Bermuda!”.
Lee Hodges $5,600 – Shoutout Dom Cintorino from the Golf Gambling Podcast for noting odd crossover between TPC Twin Cities and Quail Hollow. It really is just a ton of drivers and long irons. Lee conquered that place and has made one of two cuts at Quail. Since returning, he has not been great but he has surely gained distance this year and could be a nice low owned, cheap piece to make the cut.
Ryo Hisatsune $5,500 – I trust Ryo to hit justttt enough fairways to make the cut but do not really love his ceiling from there once the course firms up on the weekend. If you are just looking for that cut made down here, Ryo could be the difference.
Nik Noorgard Moller $5,400 – Top ten driver of the golf ball in this field.
Adam
Picks
Davis Thompson $7,300 – Davis showed us what he can do on long, difficult Bermuda courses at Pinehurst, and I expect him to shine here as well.
Byeong Hun An $7,200 – His result last year speaks for itself, and he’s told us directly this is the style of golf course he prefers most.
Dean Burmester $6,900 – One of the best drivers in the field, with three Top 20s in his last five major starts. Winning upside.
Adam Scott $6,900 – Pretty sure he doesn’t care about golf anymore—but that changes at majors, and this is a classic Adam Scott course.
Harris English $6,800 – Harris has always been a threat at Quail Hollow, and his ball striking is in some of the best form of his career.
Denny McCarthy $6,700 – Can roll his rock on these greens, no doubt. Showed signs early last week, and I love him more as the course firms up.
Rasmus Højgaard $6,600 – Elite ball speed and long iron play. World-class talent despite shaky recent form—made the cut at the Masters and has upside to contend.
J.J. Spaun $6,400 – One of the few shorter hitters I’m interested in due to his comfort on Bermuda and upside with long irons.
Kurt Kitayama $6,200 – Winner at Bay Hill, just finished T5, loves the PGA, and looked good at Boots (which is rare). I’m in.
Ryan Gerard $6,000 – Steady all year and a UNC guy. Time to showcase the ball striking on a big stage.
Eugenio Chacarra $5,800 – More details in the outright section, but I love him in any format this week.
Gary Woodland $5,800 – Gary can absolutely ball strike his way to a Top 10, and his putter has some nice history at Quail.
Kevin Yu $5,800 – Solid Boots report and ball striking stats that scream course fit.
Ben Griffin $5,700 – This is disrespectful.
Marco Penge $5,400 – He’s been the Random Euro of the Week here since bombing and gouging his way to a win in Hainan. Can do the same here and sneak into the Top 20.
One and Done
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. YTD in parentheses.
In-Season
Matt ($4.69M): Min Woo Lee. I'm buying Min Woo here. I watched him hit some drives this week that I’d put up against anyone in the field. Yes, the iron play is admittedly hard to trust—but if he's driving it long and straight at a high rate, his floor in this field is T20. If that box is checked, he’s got more than enough short game and around-the-green skill to ride into a top-5 finish.
Vincent AI ($3.665M): Bryson DeChambeau. He fits the course profile as well as anyone not named Rory. Elite carry distance, top-tier OTT and ball-striking form, and recent contention in majors make him the ideal Quail Hollow candidate. The setup—wet fairways, thick rough, firm greens—amplifies his strengths. You’re getting major-winning upside at a course tailored to his skill set. Perfect spot to deploy him if still available.
Adam ($2.771M): Bryson DeChambeau. My preseason selections have been a lot better and week of it’s clear that Bryson makes all of the sense in the world here. Now he’s the chalky play but I’m best off sticking with my original thought from December.
Adam ($5.778M): Bryson.
Vincent AI ($5.054M): Fitzpatrick.
Matt ($1.790M): Scottie.
Outright Selections
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.
Adam (-1.5 points YTD; this week is to win +8.3 points)
I didn’t set out to bet all non-major winners, but I don’t mind it at all. If there were ever a week for a breakthrough—especially from a young gun—this is the spot: a classic PGA Tour setup that players have even described as not feeling like a major.
Remember where JT first broke through, with only a T9 to his name?
This card is built around elite ball-striking upside. At their best, every player here can go toe-to-toe with the field’s top names in that department—and that’s exactly what I’m after.
Ludvig Aberg +2800
It wasn’t long ago that everyone was declaring Ludvig a lock to win a major this year, and Quail Hollow was an obvious target given his elite driving. But a lot of that talk has gone quiet as Ludvig has struggled on more positional, shorter iron golf courses of late. With that, his odds have dropped into a more reasonable range on a course that still fits him perfectly.
All of the reasons why he was considered such a major talent remain though—he’s cruising OTT and has shown the ability to gain with approach on serious ball-striking tests this season at Torrey and Augusta. His key skill set is elite, high ball flight with every club and he’s extra effective here with his distance. He’s never played here but Quail is a clear Lud golf course.
I’m not comparing the dog and don’t think he ever wins as much as Brooks did, but Brooks is an example of a player who underperformed on Tour yet outperformed when this specific skill set was rewarded. Bryson on LIV is another example—flashing in majors but not all the time on more neutral courses. I’m willing to see if Ludvig is that type of player at this price.
Joaco Niemann +3500
I’ve been a believer in Niemann at Quail for months, and despite my best efforts to talk myself out of it, I’m not going to. He was built to hit that draw OTT here, and he’s got all sorts of shapes he can use to hold these firm surfaces throughout the week. He also has experience here to lean on.
If he doesn’t do something this week, I’m going to start considering the blacklist—because this is the moment.
Patrick Cantlay +4500
This is purely a numbers play—Pat is hitting it as well as he ever has (3rd in the field over the last 20 rounds), yet he’s being priced as far from the favorites as we’ve seen at a PGA. The narrative is outpacing the stats a bit too much, IMO and he played great at long, difficult, Bermuda Pinehurst last year alongside Bryson and Rory.
I’m sure this will go poorly, but at this price, I’m more than willing to give him a shot.
Corey Conners +7000
I mainly want bigger hitters this week, but Conners and Collin are the two players where it doesn’t really matter. At this price, I’m going to Conners. He can lead a field in ball striking even on a long test like Quail—he was 3rd in ball striking here last year and 8th the year before.
He arrives this year with some of the strongest short game numbers of his career and an increasingly impressive list of major finishes.
Dean Burmester +22500
Very capable of finishing Top 10 in this field in distance and pairs that with elite long iron prowess. Add in three Top 20 finishes in his last five major starts—including a T12 at last year’s PGA—and I think he’s one of the highest-upside longshots in the field.
Ben Griffin +40000
Flowchart. Confidence. Disrespectful number. Homegame.
Listen to the pod for the full reaction when we saw how the books are treating our guy this week.
Eugenio Chacarra +40000
This guy’s been talked about as a world beater for a while, but after a great start on LIV, it all came crashing down. He’s since returned to the DPWT and looks awesome—stacking high finishes and grabbing a win at a course we called a major test in India.
Sounds like he’s dialed out there, and who knows what his true upside is—but at 400/1, I’m more than willing to find out.
Matt (-4.7 points YTD; this week is to win +8.2 points)
I have reasons in which I DO NOT believe one of Rory, Scottie, Bryson, or JT is winning this week but one thing is for sure, a certain combination of them will be a part of this picture. With the odds being so condensed up top, the without market gives you some real chances to build a card. After a few minutes around Quail, it was so obvious why big dogs have played well here. I really do not want to nit pick between them and place a massive wager on just one. Like us all, I have had far too many 2nd or 3rd place finishers in my outright betting career. It would be nice to cash a solo 2nd in the without market. The 3rd time going here this year, let's build a little card.
ALL PICKS IN THE WITHOUT SCOTTIE & RORY MARKET
Collin Morikawa +1600
Profile B.
Collin Morikawa is my sneaky guy up top this week. We're getting a number we have seen on him all year long while removing the top two golfers from the equation. His prep was very enticing and I love him to steady the ship and play the long game all week. An even par or +1 start in the softest of conditions is not out of the equation but I really like him to work his way up as the course dries out.
I can assure you, playing from the rough is going to be more detrimental than the overwhelming narrative is for the week. We know Collin can hit fairways at a high rate and is surely solid enough with the long irons. He has been awesome in majors and wants to win as much as anyone. Look for Collin to rise as fairways become tougher to hit.
Min Woo Lee +6600
Profile A
Min Woo Lee surely has the path to finish runner up. I stated above what his driver can do for him on a golf course like this. As the rain leaves the area and the greens firm up, short game will become more important and this is a spot in which Min Woo can really let his around the green play shine.
Tony Finau +8000
Profile A
I am firmly in the camp and on the record that Tony does not care about golf, but things change once we tee it up in the majors. He was firmly in the mix the last time we tee’d it up in a North Carolina, Bermuda major and showed really solid signs in Philly last week.
Anytime you need high ceiling and elite driving, Tony crosses your mind. It is crazy to see that we are getting an 80 in this market for a player the caliber of Tony. He has plenty of experience getting into the mix in majors and he surely wants to retire with one. I saw great signs from him on the grounds and the recent golf has been better.
Mav McNealy +9000
Profile A
In on Maverick on Rory courses. He has been one of the most impressive golfers during boots this season and that did not change at Quail. I have been on him recently, most recently last week when he posted the worst putting week of his career. Luckily for him, he has nowhere to go but up in that department. Mav was playing with a marquee group and had a massive crowd following him. He has really taken that next step and knows what his potential can be. Mav is playing with captian Keegan this week which will lead to extra nerves, or extra motivation…
The driving look excellent, the iron play is improved, and the confidence is sky high. I’ll take my chances on motivation at 90/1.
Will Zalatoris +12500
Profile B
Triple digits on Willy Z on a Willy Z golf course. Long term, even this season I have been waiting for the breakout and we have seen signs for a few rounds a time. I saw more great things from him this week and I am willing to give him a go at this number. His only win came on southeast Bermuda on an absolute ball strikers course. That is pretty much what we are dealing with this week. He knows how to get in the mix in majors and nearly out dualed the former PGA Champion here at a separate PGA Championship a few years back.
Nicolai Hojgaard +25000
Profile VIKING
Play the hits. Nico can truly take either path to success here. Nuke central or elite iron play. He is extremely volatile, he has an extremely high ceiling, and he makes a ton of birdies on really hard holes. I was not planning on going here, but I saw the number.
Vincent (-8.9 points YTD; this week is to win +10.4 points)
Justin Thomas +2200
Thomas brings an excellent combination of elite iron play, solid putting upside, and past PGA Championship success. While his OTT stats aren’t dominant, he’s still long enough and more importantly has shown the ability to spike with his approach play—especially with long irons. His Quail and PGA history are strong, and in slightly softened scoring conditions, his high-ceiling playstyle becomes more viable.
Joaquin Niemann +3500
Niemann offers a mix of distance and ball-striking that makes him dangerous at a course like Quail. He ranks well in strokes gained off the tee and with his irons, and while not a major winner yet, he’s got strong long iron and birdie-or-better metrics that match recent winner profiles. At his implied price, you’re getting solid upside on a player who checks nearly every statistical box.
Keegan Bradley +12500
Keegan’s elite iron play and high GIR % give him a real shot at contending despite not being a bomber. He ranks well in SG: OTT and APP, and has the long iron chops to handle Quail’s demands. With firm greens and penal rough, his precision gains value—and he’s shown he can spike with the putter when needed.
Taylor Pendrith +17500
Pendrith bombs it and is one of the best drivers on Tour in terms of carry distance and total OTT gains. The putter can spike too, which gives him just enough paths to win. At triple-digit odds across all books, he’s a high-variance longshot with real upside.
Nicolai Højgaard +35000
Massive carry distance and aggressive play make Højgaard a fit for the Tier A mold. He ranks high in SG: OTT and can dominate par 5s when in form. While still raw in spots, his upside is undeniable—especially at a course rewarding power and long irons.