Pebble Preview
Multiple Courses
Pebble Beach, California
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
I’ve seen some chatter about the weather, but I won’t be joining in this week. Unless things change drastically - always a worthy disclaimer with coastal California winds - this looks to set up for a very fair draw.
What the weather does continue to point to are excellent conditions at Pebble. I have gotten some Boots reports that it is as mint as Pebble can get this time of the year which is what we were hoping before the week. And, the rain looks like it should steer clear.
So, I think most of what I wrote up in the course preview is going to remain my focus. I will look towards the 2022 Hoge winning stat line as guidance this week with precision ball striking - especially with the iron play - likely to be rewarded nicely. With a bit firmer conditions than the last couple of years - nothing absurd but firm enough for mid-Winter Pebble - players controlling their flights and playing from the fairway will have numerous chances to attack. At Pebble, that means more manageable uphill looks and less penal misses that can boost the SG P and SG ARG figures via solid strategic ball striking.
As mentioned though, largely in-line with the plan earlier in the week so nothing major to add here.
DFS
Scottie vs Rory
Matt - This may be the first time I actually prefer someone outside of Scottie. Neither of the two will be able to take advantage with the driver around Pebble. It will come down to wedges and putting. Sure, Scottie may be the better approach player but his path to out playing Rory is far more difficult when it comes down to just these two things. For 1.2K cheaper, I’ll ride with Rors.
Adam - My tune has changed on Scottie as the week has gone on. The shift towards even more iron play and accuracy focus is ideal for him, and the videos this week seem like same old Scottie. So, I will take the slight drop off in support due to the question marks and go back to the most reliable action in golf - riding with Scottie.
$9K + Collin - 1 Picks + 1 Fade
Matt
Picks
Collin Morikawa $10,200 - He may be my favorite play of the week. Last year, he gained strokes across the board and had a nice putting week. He is very comfortable in California and in an event that elite short iron players succeed, Collin makes all the sense in the world. Mori is trending and feels like a win is coming very soon.
Fade
Justin Thomas $9,800 - I do like JT this from a betting POV but in DFS, he is a fade for me. His ownership is a tad inflated due to the recent golf he has played and the result he posted in this event last year. This is a much stronger field than the event he played in last which was the AMEX. I can see JT having a let down spot sooner than later.
Adam
Picks
Patrick Cantlay $9.4K - This is a Pat Cantlay spot and you play Pat Cantlay at his spots. The iron play can easily bounce back at a place he is familiar and in these type of conditions he can play high floor, robot golf.
Fade
Tommy Fleetwood $9.1K - The putter has been ice cold for Tommy and this isn’t a spot he has rolled it great in his career. We’re not really getting top level Tommy form coming in here and there are plenty of others that interest me in this range.
$8K - 2 Picks + 1 Fade
Matt
Picks
Keegan Bradley $8,500 - Keegan has been absolutely flushing the golf ball to start 2025 and he has no worse finish than T15 here. Keegan is a motivated man to start the year and I expect him to keep the pedal down.
Will Zalatoris $8,400 - Will was a popular man at Torrey Pines before he WD’d but he won’t be as chalky here. Will showed me nice signs in Hawaii and seems to be trending in the right direction with the ball striking.
Fade
Jason Day $8,900 - Day is in some great form and has some great course history here. The form is going to have him garner some clicks, even at this price. Between this inflated price and ownership, I think it could be a great spot to short Day.
Adam
Picks
Keegan Bradley $8,500 - If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Keegan continues to play some of the very best golf of his career and this is a great spot for him to ball strike it around. Limited, but solid, course history.
Sepp Straka $8,000 - I will go hot hand with Sepp who also should be able to have a massive ball striking week in these conditions. He is a streaky player and I will ride him while he is hot on another good course fit.
Fade
Taylor Pendrith $8,300 - I like most of this range and don’t really hate anyone. But, Pendy has not been rolling the ball well recently and I think a lot of his long term putting stats are a bit misleading. I’ll look elsewhere for more reliability across the bag.
5 Picks for $7K
Matt
Picks
Russ Henley $7,900 - Russ’ course history has him in this range but he is in some nice form heading to a style of play that should suit his game. This is a nice price for his ceiling.
Sahith Theegala $7,700 - Theegala has the ceiling to win in this field, especially since we are in California. He is at a very fair price and will not be a chalky man in this range.
Max Homa $7,400 - Homa had an awful putting week at Torrey Pines which I expect him to rebound from. This is one of the better setups for him in a really long time. Even though the driver has gotten better, he will not have to deal with the stress of knowing he has to hit a ton of serious drives.
Nick Taylor $7,200 - Nick Taylor was too cheap at The AMEX after his win. He is yet again too cheap here. He is in some really solid form and loves this place.
JJ Spaun $7,200 - Extremely sneaky T15 for Spaun at the Farmers which is not a place that screams Spaun. If he is able to gain strokes across the board there, he should be able to light it up here. Spaun has made his last two cuts here and has a nice ceiling at this price.
Adam
Picks
Adam Scott $7,600 - Continues to deliver spike upside across the bag, and this is a spot he has played well in consecutive appearances. California history is strong.
Rasmus Hojgaard $7,500 - Rasmus is a serious talent, and specializes in spike upside with the iron play + putting. Should love this course, and won’t fear anyone.
JT Poston $7,400 - On skill set alone this should be a great Posty course and outside of a bad round at AmEx he continues to play great golf.
Harry Hall $7,300 - Not sure you could draw up a better Hall course and he nearly won on a key comp at Colonial.
Tom Hoge $7,300 - Doing everything well that he also did before lifting this trophy.
5 Picks for $6K
Matt
Picks
Nick Dunlap $6,800 - Dunlap will hit a lot less drivers this week than normal. This should help him as the driver has been giving him trouble. Everything else seems okay from him and this is a great price.
Brian Harman $6,500 - Harman has made four of six cuts here. He is not in the best form of his life but this is a golf course that suits his style of play.
Taylor Moore $6,400 - T Moore has made his last two cuts and he has never missed a cut here. Two of those finishes were T16 or better finishes which would play very well at 6.3K this year!
Lee Hodges $6,200 - Lee has two T10s in his last three starts and has really been hitting the ball well. Looking deeper, he has five T16s in his last seven starts. That is some serious golf from the PGA Tour winner. Sure, he may be better on bigger tracks but this form is too much to pass up at this price.
Adam Hadwin $6,000 - Hadwin played really nice to start his year in Hawaii then became giga chalk at The AMEX, the event he owns… Obviously, he misses the cut as chalk. Min price and forgotten, Hadwin could easily T10 in this bounce back spot on a course that suits his game.
Adam
Picks
Eric Cole $6,800 - This is a tailor made Cole golf course, and perfect for a non-competitive T16
Sam Stevens $6,800 - What a result for us in the 7K range last week, and I expect him to keep it rolling here
Nick Dunlap $6,800 - Fewer drivers is welcome news for Dunlap, who can lean on his elite iron play and putting upside
Gary Woodland $6,500 - The history here is self explanatory and arrives playing his best golf in a long while
Lucas Glover $6,100 - Generational iron play at this price, always down
One and Done
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. None of their previous selections are in the field this week. YTD in parentheses.
Matt ($1.948M) - Collin Morikawa. I really believe Collin’s floor is T8. I see him in contention this week which will lead to a nice pay day in your one and done contest. He has a nice result here last year and played great to start 2025. I trust Collin in California. He is going to hit every fairway and have a ton of short irons in his hand which he prefers.
Adam ($291K) - Adam Scott. Scott has been demonstrating that he is still a player who can post very high finishes in signature events, and I like the history he has across California. He also has a couple of solid Top 20s here in his last two starts with impressive T2G figures in those appearances. The game is very balanced with spike upside everywhere, and has enough Dog to lift a trophy when he gets into the mix.
Vincent AI ($984K) - Justin Thomas. Take JT here while he's still finding his rhythm early in the season. His iron play sets up perfectly for Pebble with those long-iron and wedge strengths matching exactly what winners need here. The field size is small (80 players), the purse is huge, and he's shown enough form lately to trust him. Plus, he's typically strong in California and it lets us keep other elite players available for the majors later in the year when fields are much deeper.
Outright Bets
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.
Adam (-3.9 Point YTD; this week is to win +8.2 points)
Most of these are via BetOnline which has some great numbers this week overall (sub 20% hold). So, I will take some shots down the board with the belief that if Scottie doesn’t win (something I no longer am confident we can avoid) it’s a golf course where every other player on the board is live.
Sam Burns +4500
I will be honest, I don’t love Sam when we need really good stuff with the iron play. However, the price is fair when we consider the Dog and his putting ability is unique in how much damage it can do. That lowers his requirements with the iron play versus everyone else at this venue and I trust him to be solid enough when he gets to hit a lot more wedges. Played well last year as well, and mixes in California.
Tom Kim +7500
I don’t know if TK can putt. But, I know he can lead a field in SG APP and at these odds I will ride every time in this week’s conditions.
Adam Scott +8000
He just continues to demonstrate the ability to spike across the bag and comes to a spot where he is showing increasing comfort in recent appearances. I love that he has tons of success down at Riviera, and he’s been minting high finishes in elevated events since the summer. Capable of winning one another at this level.
Nick Taylor +8500
I really think if you merely showed someone his recent stats, plus course history, plus overall dog they would think he is one of the favorites this week. So, even though it is very likely to good to be true this quickly after a win, I will give it a shot at these odds. I really don’t understand why he is these odds honestly, which again, probably makes it too obvious but that’s fine if it is only taking up a spot at 85/1 on the card.
Sahith Theegala +9000
I bet Theegs when he is over 70/1. That’s just a rule I have, and I need to stick by my own rules better - ahem Alejandro Del Rey. Theegs doesn’t know when he will play well, and neither do we. But, he has spike upside in every aspect of his game and that’s why we just bet him when he crosses into this range.
Akshay Bhatia +9000
He showed up here as a teenager and played amazing golf, so arriving as a proven PGA Tour winner at 90/1 is very compelling. We do the Akshay near the ocean bit for a reason, and that is the case here. Loves it when things play a bit more firm, and continues to develop into one of the most consistent putters in the game.
Tom Hoge +9000
He is yet to put all four rounds together this year, but if there is a spot he can do it this is the one. Has amazing history here, and arrives playing golf of an equal or higher level than what he arrived with here in 2022. The conditions should be similar to that year as well so I am in at just shy of the triple digits.
Si Woo Kim +11000
I am just going to continue to ride the Si Woo train as the odds climb ever higher. He has earned his spot in the Dog Rankings, and I love how the conditions are shaping up here for him. Give me Si Woo on a positional track, especially when the putter has been directionally much better lately.
Nick Dunlap +12500
I have decided to bet Nick Dunlap over 100/1 for the remainder of his career. And, I will happily do so at a course where he can hit fewer drivers and spend more time attacking with his iron play plus putter.
Matt (+4.2 Point YTD; this week is to win 7.4 points)
Collin Morikawa +1500
Collin has been my guy at the top all week, and I’m pulling the trigger on +1500. I backed him at last year’s BMW Championship and Valero Texas Open—his only outright tickets for me in 2024. Thankfully, I didn’t miss out on much, as Collin hasn’t done a lot of winning recently. That said, I love this spot for him. He’s been brewing for a win, and this course feels tailor-made for his game. Expect him to play from nearly every fairway and face short to mid irons into most greens—arguably his biggest strength. Collin is in great form and has shown he can handle Pebble Beach, gaining strokes across the board in last year’s event.
Shane Lowry +7000
We usually see much shorter odds on Shane Lowry in full-field majors, so this number feels too good to pass up. While I rarely play Lowry, this setup suits him well. He excels on shorter courses and is an incredibly precise short iron player. His ball striking has been ELITE since the Olympics, and his missed cut at The Farmers was purely a putting issue. Lowry has made the cut in four of his five appearances at this event, with a couple of strong finishes. This could be a great spot for him to shine.
Akshay Bhatia +8000
I couldn’t pass on this number for Akshay. His best results have come on wedge-heavy courses, and he’s proven he can pop at Pebble Beach. As an 18-year-old, he hit all 18 greens in regulation at Pebble—a remarkable feat. This is his first time back since then, so the vibes should be strong. Akshay has already shown he can contend in big events early in his career, and this feels like the perfect opportunity for him to break through.
Rasmus Hojgaard +9000
Rasmus is coming off a stellar year on the DPWT, earning his spot here by finishing as one of the DPWT’s top 10 card earners. Last week, he gained over 10 strokes ball striking in a field that included Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm—impressive for a player who typically relies on his putter for big gains. His brother Nicolai popped in California to start 2024, so why can’t Rasmus do the same in 2025?
JT Poston +9000
If not for a disastrous Round 2 at The Stadium Course, JT Poston might have won The AMEX. That round marked one of the worst putting performances of his career, but he rebounded to make the 54-hole cut and finish T12. Poston has never missed a cut at Pebble, a course that suits his game perfectly. He thrives when wedges and mid irons are critical, which is the case here. While I expected 2024 to be Poston’s breakout year, life changes (yes, I’m blaming the birth of his child) slowed him down. Still, he closed the year with a win and seems poised to start 2025 on a strong note. This could be a big year for Posty.
Cam Davis +12000
Cam Davis has gained strokes on approach in three straight starts—a feat he last accomplished during the run that led to his summer win. His performance at this event last year included the fourth-best approach week of his career, reinforcing how much he loves club-down courses. Davis has made four straight cuts here and offers significant upside at this number.
Vincent AI (-3.7 Point YTD; this week is to win +8.2 points)
JUSTIN THOMAS +1600
Strong ball-striker who excels at both long irons and wedge play, perfectly fitting the "barbell approach" needed at Pebble. He's shown excellent California form throughout his career and his elite iron play should be magnified in the firmer conditions expected this week. His putting can run hot and cold but he can heat up here.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD +3500
Fleetwood's precise iron play is tailor-made for Pebble's small greens. He's particularly strong with his long irons from 200+ yards, one of the key approach ranges identified for success here. His putting has improved significantly over the years and he's shown the ability to post those crucial spike approach rounds that past winners have demonstrated.
SAM BURNS +4500
Burns made the data-driven list of players with multiple spike approach rounds in their last 10 starts, a key indicator for success at Pebble. His combination of strong approach play from 200+ yards and excellent putting, particularly from 4-8 feet, fits the winner's profile perfectly. He's also demonstrated success on correlating courses like Colonial and Riviera.