Canadian Open Preview

TPC Toronto

Alton, Canada

Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts

Weather Link

Overall not a ton in the weather or anything additional we’ve learned about the course that should alter our thinking from earlier in the week.

Conditions should be most scoreable during the opening two rounds before winds and cooler temperatures move in over the weekend. That shift will place even more emphasis on mid to long iron play and could introduce a bit more scrambling pressure and putter stress. Still, the lean this week remains firmly on ball striking, especially compared to the typical Canadian Open venue.

From a wave perspective, things look like smooth sailing, with Thursday afternoon tee times potentially benefitting from warmer temps and softer greens. But nothing here is significant enough to impact betting or DFS strategies in a major way.

DFS

$9K and Up (2 Pick & 1 Fade)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Ludvig Åberg $10,500 - This is Ludde week. In a weaker field, his driving puts him halfway home before he even tees it up—he starts on second base. His ceiling is elite, and even if it’s not perfect right now, you’re buying long-term talent at a course and in a situation built for him. The win is coming.

      • Harry Hall $9,200- Hall just posted the best driving performance of his career and paired it with sharp iron play. We already know what he can do with the putter—this is the profile we look to ride while it’s trending.

    • Fade

      • Rory McIlroy $11,900 - Rory has so much more T19 equity in these events than Scottie does. Scottie is an auto T3 but Rory can surely have a less than stellar week. He is not the same since he won at Augusta and I see this as nothing more than a tune up for Oakmont.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Corey Conners $10,100 - This is the best all around golfer that Conners has been in his career and this is probably the best Canadian Open venue of his career. He has three straight Top 20s in Canada and this is his best chance yet to come out on top.

      • Bobby Mac $9,800 - More on Bobby Mac in the outright section, but I am sticking with the national open flowchart. Rounding into form at the perfect time as well.

    • Fade

      • Harry Hall $9,200 - If I get burned fading Harry Hall in the $9k range off of a fluke driving performance I can live with it. Take the better ball strikers up here.

$8K (2 Picks & 1 Fade)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Thorbjørn Olesen $8,700 - Much better DFS play than betting ticket. His “all green” stat profile travels well, and he brings a high floor—especially valuable when the rest of the field brings so many question marks.

      • Max Homa $8,200 - Max is trending. There’s a visible uptick in his swagger, and he’s becoming more dangerous each week. At 8.2K in a weak field, you’re getting a fearless, high-upside option that’s close to breaking through.

    • Fade

      • Wyndham Clark $8,600 - Some of the most unserious iron play we’ve seen in a long time. Until he tightens up the approach, we’re out.

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Nick Taylor $8,800 - He already has a great track record on TPC courses (specifically Scots) and we know what he did last week. Keeping it simple.

      • Alex Noren $8,500 - It seems like this year when I go to a guy in the $8k range, play him OAD, and bet him, that he plays terrible. So, you’ve been warned. But, I really am quite bullish on Noren here in excellent form since returning from injury. We go again.

    • Fade

      • Chris Gotterup $8,300 - One of those where an outright would make some sense because there is upside but way too risky of a DFS play at this number. He’s far from a consistent performer, and just because he’s been playing better of late doesn’t mean he can be trusted in this format.

Favorite plays down the board ($6K + $7K)

  • Matt

    • Picks

      • Jake Knapp $8,700 - Up and down this year, but the driver plays here and makes him a great fit. If he finds a rhythm, he cruises through the cut.

      • John Keefer $7,800 - KFT + Canada track record, but mostly this is about the price. It’s suspiciously high—feels like a “-5 thru 10 holes” kind of Thursday start. Don’t be the sheep tweeting “who’s John Keefer?”

      • Ryan Fox $7,700 - This price is wrong. He’s a recent Tour winner, in form, and plays great in Canada. Should be $8K+.

      • Cam Young $7,500 - One of our favorite DFS plays this week. The driver is trending back up, and his showing at Boots + a strong U.S. Open qualifier = arrow up.

      • Byeong Hun An $7,400 - This man was 8.9K not long ago. Form’s cooled, but we’re buying the dip on a bomber-friendly track.

      • Nicolai Højgaard $7,400 - Same deal as always with the Hojs. Wild ceiling, real winning equity, and mega volatility. Prefer Nico to Rasmus at this price.

      • Tom Kim $7,300 - Three made cuts in a row (quack). Yes, he’s lost—but this is a multi-time PGA Tour winner at 7.3K in a soft field. You buy.

      • Isaiah Salinda $7,200 - Hasn’t popped lately, but this is his best setup since Mexico, where he nearly took it down.

      • Henrik Norlander $7,100 - Quiet mid/long iron upside. Ceiling play.

      • Beau Hossler $7,000 - Will not win. But he pops once or twice a year and has more seasoning than most in this range.

      • Antoine Rozner $6,900 - High-end driver, super consistent cut-maker. Hasn’t missed a cut since the AmEx.

      • Justin Lower $6,900 - Everyone knows, you play Lower on big tracks that require birdies. Great Monday in Columbus to get into the US Open as well.

      • David Ford $6,600 - The best young gun in the field. Same ceiling as Clanton at a fraction of the price.

      • Kevin Velo $6,400 - Bikes (In French, the word for "bike" or "bicycle" is vélo.)  is not scared to get into the mix as he did earlier this year. He has driven it well and had a really nice US Open qualifying, winning the Canadian Qualifier. 

      • Trevor Cone $6,300 - Cone has gained strokes ball striking in his last three starts and easily qualified for the US Open at the Rockville, MD site. 

  • Adam

    • Picks

      • Kevin Yu $7,800 – TPC golf is when Yu is at his best from a ball striking perspective and the putter tends to perform better in these easier scoring conditions.

      • Taylor Moore $7,600 – Solid comp history on equivalent TPC designs and balanced across the bag to have a high floor against this field.

      • Alex Smalley $7,600 – This is classic Smalley golf. Will fire one low round which should be all he will need to limp to a Top 20.

      • Mark Hubbard $7,400 – Hubbard is always someone to ride when he is hot and he is hot enough right now with four finishes of T28 or better in his last four solo starts.

      • Ricky Castillo $7,200 – This dude is straight up good at golf and doesn’t belong down here.

      • Emiliano Grillo $7,100 – More on Grillo below. Flowchart.

      • Karl Villips $7,100 – Also more on Vilips below, but his upside is winning an event like this from well down the board.

      • Andrew Putnam $7,000 – Anytime we’re heading in the northern direction I am going to be interested in cold weather specialist Andrew Putnam, and his floor should be high due to how many fairways he will find here.

      • Lee Hodges $7,000 – They don’t call him TPC Lee for nothing and he’s hitting the ball solidly enough again.

      • Steven Fisk $7,000 – You know the drill with Fisk. Don’t track him because he will miss every putt but at a venue like this the floor should be high due to the ball striking.

      • Adam Schenk $6,700 – Not in consistent form so a risky option but has Top 5 upside on courses like this as we saw a few weeks ago.

      • Kris Ventura $6,700 – The heavy ball striking of Kris V is coming back of late and will be a great fit for this venue.

      • Ben Silverman $6,600 – Have to give a look to at least one Canadian down here and Silverman has the upside in his iron play to perform well on home turf. T16 at Waste earlier this year.

      • Nick Dunlap $6,600 – Yes, actually. Finally showed signs of progress OTT at testing Muirfield Village and has more than enough talent across the rest of the bag to put together a good result here.

      • Thomas Rosenmueller $6,500 – Serious ball striker who is showing signs of comfort lately with made cuts in three of his last four starts — will be one of his best chances this year for a breakout performance.

Side Thought - Low Canadian

  • Matt - Mac Hughes. Mac has two T3s in his last six starts and dialed in his irons at the Memorial. He consistently shows up in this event—gaining on approach in six straight Canadian Opens. It’s clear he circles this week on his calendar. Love him in the Low Canadian market.

  • Adam - Nick Taylor. He is in-form and has more dog than the rest of the Canadians combined (minus Svenny). Not going to overthink it.

One and Done

Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. YTD in parentheses.

In-Season

Vincent AI ($5.109M): Keith Mitchell. Mitchell brings exactly what this course demands - consistent power off the tee combined with the ability to convert scoring chances from longer distances. His statistical profile matches perfectly with the "positional bombing" recipe needed here. Mitchell has shown he can perform on similar TPC-style layouts and represents a strong balance of skill and likely ownership for a one-and-done selection.

Matt ($4.901M): Keith Mitchell. Keith has been playing some really nice golf and is as confident as anyone (outside of Sunday). I really think he can get into the mix here and make some noise. The driver is awesome of course and he has the iron play + putter of late. It’s Keith, it makes sense, but he is very unserious so proceed with caution.

Adam ($4.792M): Alex Noren. He’s been playing great golf across the bag since returning from injury and now drops into the weakest field he’s seen in that stretch. The comp course history is strong too—ranking 5th in the field—and there won’t be many better spots to deploy him the rest of the year. Happy to ride the form while he’s hot.

Pre-Season

Adam ($7.379M): McNealy.

Vincent AI ($5.667M): Burns.

Matt ($5.461M): Cam Young.

Outright Selections

Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.

Adam (-4.5 points YTD; this week is to win +10.1 points)

All on FanDuel this week. I’m actually a tad afraid of Lud—but not too much. And I believe Rory is far from the threat Scottie has been in recent weeks. Let’s see if someone can get the job done from a touch further down the board here.

Bobby Mac +2800

It’s a national open. Yes, Bob Mac is trying to go back-to-back, but that doesn’t in any way change the fact that it’s once again a national open—and we bet Bob Mac in national opens. He’s rounding into form just in time, with back-to-back spike approach efforts and three straight events gaining on the greens. A T6 in Scottsdale this year and T8 at Valhalla last year show the move to a TPC style venue shouldn’t be a problem either. Sticking to the flowchart at a still reasonable price considering the SG Dog he has.

Alex Noren +5500

I almost never bet Tommy, but I did in Canada a couple of years ago—and it almost worked. That’s all the evidence I need to treat this as a pseudo-DPWT event. And if that’s the case, I can actually bet Noren. The price isn’t too bad either considering the strong all-around play since returning from injury, with all three of those starts coming in significant events. He drops down in class here and has been a TPC merchant throughout his career.

Gary Woodland +8000

Gary is playing some of his best golf in years and importantly the putter is much improved. We know the powerful ball striking can travel to a venue like this and with confidence on the greens he’s a threat to be firmly in the mix here. Strong TPC track record.

Nicolai Hojgaard +10000

All of the stats continue to point to Nicolai playing better than the results have shown. The ball striking, especially in the key iron ranges this week, is very strong and the putter has upside. If a distance edge fully develops here that’s an added bonus.

Emiliano Grillo +11000

Unearthing a long-forgotten flowchart here: when Grillo is in form, you play him at TPC courses. That strategy served me quite well a couple of summers ago, and he arrives this week hitting his irons as well as he has in a long time. So—on the card he goes.

Karl Vilips +15000

Karl is showing the ability to gain across the bag and deliver spike rounds almost every tournament. It hasn’t fully clicked since the win in Puerto Rico, but the talent is too obvious to ignore at triple-digit prices in fields like this for the rest of the year.

Matt (-7.7 points YTD; this week is to win +16.0 points)

Harry Hall +5000

Hall is coming off the best off-the-tee week of his career and paired it with solid iron play. We already know he’s a spike putter with 6+ stroke upside with the flatstick. I see Hall as a future multi-time PGA Tour winner, and this is a perfect soft-field setup for him to break through.

Keith Mitchell +5000 

Keith is unserious, but in this field, I’ll take a shot at 50/1. I can absolutely see him getting in the mix—posting a number, applying pressure. Do I trust him to beat a dog down the stretch? Not quite. But he’s having another consistent, quietly strong year and checks every box I’m looking for here. If he’s ever going to do it, this is the type of spot.

Chris Gotterup +8500 

Tour winner with confidence after dominating his U.S. Open qualifier in Summit, NJ. On a driver-heavy track, Gotterup is always in the conversation. He grew up on these surfaces, thrives in the Northeast, and is coming off his best approach week since the win in Myrtle Beach. He’s mixed it up a few times since then, and this feels like another ideal spot to ride the form.

Ricky Castillo +12500 

Pooks. Good at golf. When he first showed up, it was all short game, but since late March the ball striking has been legit—and it's still getting better. He’s gained over six strokes ball striking in each of his last two measured starts. I’m a little worried he may be more of a Bermuda guy, but at this number, I’m in.

Vincent (-11.9 points YTD; this week is to win +10.9 points)

Corey Conners +2000

The local favorite possesses the ideal profile for a course demanding surgical precision into receptive greens. His precise ball-striking should be perfectly suited for the more demanding Canadian Open setup expected this week.

Matti Schmid +8000

The young German represents tremendous value. Schmid's combination of power and precision should translate beautifully to conditions where both elements become essential for getting into contention. Great result in his last start, and another good chance here.

Erik Van Rooyen +10000

His recent runner-up at Byron Nelson showed he can greatly outperform fields like this when his game clicks, and that course is a good example of the skills needed this week as well.

Nicolai Hojgaard +10000

The Danish talent offers excellent value with a power game that should thrive when driving becomes more important than typical Canadian Open venues. Hojgaard's upside potential makes him particularly appealing when conditions favor aggressive yet controlled play.

Danny Walker +25000

At generous odds, Walker brings the perfect combination of course fit and value for a track rewarding consistent iron play. His ability to create scoring opportunities from the ranges this venue will frequently demand makes him a compelling sleeper in conditions that should level the playing field between stars and steady performers.