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Detroit GC
Detroit, MI
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
Reports indicate they want to try and bake this thing out, with a redesign expected to take place after the event. We’ve seen how that plays out at other tournaments, and the result is usually extremely treacherous green complexes by the end of the week. With the amount of slope on these surfaces, we need to consider how a firmer version of this event will play — even if there’s some rain in the forecast. Overall, the rain doesn’t look strong enough to derail the setup team’s goal of a firmer track, so we can feel good about the subsequent analysis.
The good news is this should only further emphasize the keys we discussed yesterday. The narrative of this being a massively distance-biased course just isn’t true — and firmer conditions will only highlight that. Control out of the rough into firm greens will be difficult, and with fairways running more, the bomber advantage gets further neutralized. At the end of the day, it’s hard to call it a super distance-biased event when even short, accurate drivers will still have lots of wedges in their hands.
As mentioned yesterday, the key here is precision iron play (especially with short irons) into the right areas of the greens, and that will be even more important this week with a smaller margin for error on approach. To better understand how this is likely to play out, we can look at the tougher scoring conditions in 2021 and 2024 as reference. Here are the median field ranks for winners and runners-up in those years:
· SG P – 18
· SG ARG – 25.5
· SG APP – 14.5
· SG OTT – 23
· Distance – 26
· Accuracy – 18
First off, it’s a pretty balanced profile, which supports the “all-green Xander” types we highlighted yesterday. Once again, we see approach play and accuracy off the tee standing out. The putting emphasis is elevated, but as noted, incoming putting form isn’t necessarily a priority — strong approach play sets up better looks. And that strong approach play is heavily influenced by playing from the fairway. It all comes back to the same core: solidly accurate driving that sets up precision iron play as the point of differentiation. That’s already what we were targeting here, and the expected changes in course conditions only reinforce it.
The second area we need to keep an eye on is another potential #WaveSplit week. The PM/AM wave should have a clear advantage with the current forecast, especially the earliest of starters on Friday. This forecast has been volatile so it needs to be monitored up until go time, but if it holds the edge will be with the PM/AM wave and it is something I’ve factored into my selections. The velocity of the wind is the question and some forecasts have it more benign on Friday afternoon. However, it won’t take much wind difference in these conditions to provide a meaningful edge and it should at minimum serve as a tiebreaker on guys with the current projections.
DFS
$9K+ (2 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Patrick Cantlay $10,200 – I expect PC to be in the mix this weekend. His game is steady across the board, and he’s not just using this as a tune-up. Finished T2 here previously and has the tools—driver, irons, putter—to contend again.
Cam Young $9,300 – CY has strong course history and finally seems to be trending again for the first time in a year. This is a great price for a high-floor, high-upside option who may garner some chalk.
Fade
Ben Griffin $9,800 – Is BG the most confident man on Tour? Probably. But this price is inflated. There are stronger pivots both above and below him.
Adam
Picks
Ben Griffin $9,800 — I’ll disagree with Jerz here. BG is the most “all-green Xander style” player across the bag in the field right now and already has posted solid finishes in lesser form here previously. He gets the good draw and has been minting career best finishes every week so I will remain on the train.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,600 — Hideki has been elite with the iron play this year, and the firmer the conditions get the better for Hideki. Easily the most win equity at any price in this range.
Fade
Harry Hall $9,500 — I see the path to Hall playing well here on the back of the flatstick but the risk isn’t worth the reward at this extremely elevated of a price.
$8K (2 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Wyndham Clark $8,600 – Clark fits this course perfectly with his elite driver-putter combo and even gained on approach last week. If the irons stay hot, his win equity is real.
Alex Smalley $8,000 – A pure ball-striker with both safety and upside. Great price for a player who can spike into the top 5 if the putter cooperates.
Fade
Rickie Fowler $8,700 – Rickie should make the cut, but I don’t see much more. Feels like a T34 waiting to happen, with minimal ceiling for GPPs.
Adam
Picks
Matt Fitz $8,400 — Fitz is getting close to being all the way back and although I question the peak birdie making ability, these firmer conditions raise the floor quite high
Chris Gotterup $8,000 — Has been playing the most consistent golf of his career as of late, and already has a couple of made cuts here. Good draw as well.
Fade
Min Woo Lee $8,500 — Min Woo is extremely streaky with the putter (was much better arriving here last year) and when he’s on a cold streak he’s one I prefer to just wait out
$7K (7 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Ryan Gerard $7,900 – Huge off the tee and gaining with ball striking. He has legit ceiling at this price, especially on a course where driving matters.
Ben An $7,600 – Benny is trending steadily and the price remains fair. Still buying.
Jesper Svennson $7,400 – Driver-putter combo is exactly what we want here, and Jespy brings both in spades.
Rico Hoey $7,300 – High-end distance and elite ball striking. He’s volatile, but the ceiling is T4 if the putter holds up even slightly.
Max Homa $7,300 – Homa knows this event well. This is one of the softer setups he’s seen in a while—perfect for regaining confidence and rhythm.
Nico Echavarria $7,200 – Elite iron player who will get clean looks all week. If the putter even slightly warms up, he can sneak into the mix.
Isaiah Salinda $7,000 – Long off the tee and fearless. This course should allow him to swing freely and unlock his upside.
Adam
Picks
Alex Noren $7,800 — Everything is solid right now except the driver, but he is finding fairways which gives him a high floor with everything else he is doing across the bag
Stephan Jaeger $7,700 — Great course history here and trust him to deliver another strong performance this week
Chris Kirk $7,500 — Another guy with great course history here and finally saw life with the putter last time out
Emiliano Grillo $7,400 — Fairway minter + iron play merchant = easy yes for me this week
Victor Perez $7,400 — Playing solid golf across the bag right now and presents spike upside in a variety of categories
Ryo Hisatsune $7,200 — Not as popular as he has been at previous moments this year but this is an excellent course fit for him
Ricky Castillo $7,100 — One of the best rookies on the PGA Tour this year and absolutely love this spot with the balance he has T2G
$6K (6 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Alejandro Tosti $6,800 – Wide-open driving corridors make this a dream setup for Tosti.
Karl Vilips $6,800 – Emerging talent with elite driving upside. Don’t be shocked if he finds himself in the mix.
Kris Ventura $6,600 – Ventura is long and confident with the driver, as we saw at Torrey Pines. Not a direct comp, but shows form that could translate.
Justin Lower $6,400 – Performs well on courses that reward birdies and long irons. Quietly checks the boxes here.
Jackson Suber $6,400 – Top 50 on Tour in driving distance and just had his 2nd best approach week ever. Trending in the right direction with both key tools.
Nick Dunlap $6,300 - If there was a course for Dunlap to find a T10 at, it would be here. There are no spots for him to go OB here (for the most part). He should find clean lies to make birdies.
Adam
Picks
Steven Fisk $6,900 — You know the drill, don’t track him because the putter will break your brain but just wait and let the T2G play stack up
Beau Hossler $6,900 — Beau is too good of a player to be priced down here and like I the course for him
Matt Kuchar $6,900 — Always down for Kuch on courses where he can overcome the driver gap and this does the trick, solid overall form as well
Justin Lower $6,400 — Three appearances, three Top 30s
David Ford $6,400 — Big time young gun alert, and this guy stripes fairways
Hayden Buckley $6,200 — The man will be flipping wedges onto the green every hole with how he drives it and that’s enough to snag a solid result from way down the board
One and Done
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. YTD in parentheses.
In-Season
Vincent AI ($5.884M): Ben Griffin. Griffin's game is built for consistent scoring at Detroit GC. His iron play precision allows him to attack pins while his driving accuracy keeps him in prime position throughout the round. This well-rounded skill set should translate perfectly to a venue that rewards steady, mistake-free golf. His numbers indicate he's one of the best fits for this particular venue, making him an excellent one-and-done selection who could easily find himself in contention come the weekend.
Matt ($5.315M): Luke Clanton. We're rolling out the young stud this week in Detroit. This course sets up beautifully for Clanton—it’s a more straightforward PGA Tour layout where he can take full advantage of his biggest weapon: the driver. Expect him to let it rip and stay aggressive all four days. Clanton brings that fearless, youthful mindset that can be a real asset—he’s not here to play for a safe top-30 finish. He’s here to fire at flags and chase a win. I love the idea of getting ahead of a talented young player’s breakout than waiting on a win and chasing it again. Clanton has the game, the mentality, and the course fit to pop. Let’s try to catch lightning before the rest of the world wakes up to his upside.
Adam ($4.926M): Ben Griffin. Seems unlikely we will see BG against fields of this quality much longer and he exemplifies the balance across the bag that I am after this week. Should get a good draw to lean on as well.
Adam ($8.058M): Min Woo.
Vincent AI ($7.598M): Cameron Young.
Matt ($6.456M): Jaeger.
Outright Selections
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in an outright competition of man vs machine. Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.
Adam (-7.5 points YTD; this week is to win +10.1 points)
Ben Griffin +2200
I’m after the balanced profiles this week and especially if it can be found in players near the top of the board. That has yielded success year after year here and BG is the best example of this in the field right now. Everything has changed since he discovered real confidence, and this is already a spot he’s gained SG P, ARG, and APP in his first two appearances. With a much improved driver and sky high confidence, I will swallow the price and trust BG 2.0 to massively improve on two already solid results here.
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Hideki is playing solid enough golf recently and his iron play remains at the very top of this field with much higher spike upside than most. He has experience here with a T13 and T21 while also having more SG Dog than anyone in the field. The consistency might not be as trustworthy as others around him on the board, but the risk/reward at +3000 is just too good for me to pass up especially getting a better draw than the other “big names”.
Stephan Jaeger +7000
This a Jaeger course and he’s proven it with two previous Top 10s here. Came here last year with the yips and missed the cut which I think has given us a bit of an elevated price this week as that result muddies the really solid course history overall. The flatstick is trending nicely this time around which gives me plenty of confidence that we get another competitive effort this week at a solid number.
Matt (-10.7 points YTD; this week is to win +8.4 points)
Luke Clanton +4000
We’re betting on Clanton’s first win rather than waiting for it and chasing. The kid has an elite ball-striking skillset and plays aggressively—perfect for a course like Detroit Golf Club where he can let it fly. He gained over three strokes putting here last year on his way to a T10, so the comfort level is already there. This is a fair number given the course fit and upside.
Min Woo Lee +5000
This is a wild number for a player with top-10-in-the-world upside. Min Woo already won this year on a course that demands the same skill set Detroit does—aggressive driving and confident putting. He finished runner-up here last year at less than half this number. The recent form isn’t perfect, but this is the definition of a buy-low spot on a high-ceiling talent who’s proven he can contend on this track.
Ryan Gerard +5500
Gerard on bigger golf courses. All day, everyday. This is not the biggest track in the world but he will get a ton of chances to rip drivers around which he does very well. I am not going to sugarcoat it… the putter has been ABYSMAL but he has proven to go on spurts of good and bad putting. If this number was 40, I would more than likely be out. I think it is a really good option in the 50s for the ceiling he has.
Rasmus Højgaard +6000 / Nicolai Højgaard +9000
The Højgaard brothers are both live this week. Detroit rewards distance, and they both can absolutely nuke it. Rasmus has the better putter, Nicolai is more reliable on approach. Chipping is a concern, sure—but these numbers make it worth the gamble on raw talent and elite ball striking.
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Kitayama is flushing it tee-to-green, as expected. The putter is always a wildcard, but when it pops, he can contend anywhere. I expected 50 or 60 here, so when I saw 80/1, it was an instant bet. Great driver, great irons—just needs a small pop week with the flatstick.
Steven Fisk +20000
Fisk is one of the newer faces who has actually shown nice ball striking signs. His profile is not going to turn any heads but it is surely positives at 200/1. He has gotten into the mix in a few lesser events which tells me he has some nice ceiling.
Vincent (-14.9 points YTD; this week is to win +12.0 points)
Ben Griffin +2200
Griffin jumps off the page with the best overall skill composite for this venue. His approach play ranks 9th while his driving sits at 13th - exactly the balanced ball-striking profile that thrives at Detroit GC. He's got the length needed without sacrificing precision, and these odds are too generous for someone whose game matches the course so perfectly.
Luke Clanton +4000
The youngster brings elite iron play (8th in approach) paired with solid driving fundamentals. His profile screams Detroit GC success - precise ball-striking with enough pop to take advantage of scoring opportunities. At 40/1, you're getting tremendous value on someone whose skill set should translate well to this venue once again.
Erik Van Rooyen +11000
Van Rooyen is a steal with a skill profile that perfectly matches Detroit GC's requirements. His off-the-tee game ranks 11th in the field - elite driving that gives him a huge advantage on a course where finding fairways sets up scoring opportunities. His approach play sits at a respectable 57th, which combined with that elite driving creates exactly the balanced ball-striking profile that thrives here.