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Royal Portrush
Portrush, NI
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
As always on a Boots week a vast majority of our thoughts about the plan this week live over there but we do need to check in on the weather again.
The updated forecast looks more benign than it did yesterday and it should be of little trouble for the guys as they’ve practiced in worse this week and it did little to slow them down. Thursday conditions will still probably hold back scoring but Friday and Saturday will require pedal down to stay in the mix. Rain without the originally projected wind will have these guys taking dead aim as often as they can.
The updated forecast also sees the wave split trending down. I definitely don’t think the PM/AM will be dead and this isn’t going to be last years catastrophic split. However, I’d still absolutely want to be playing on Friday PM given the choice. It appears set to be dead calm and actually quite pleasant temperature wise. Those guys are going to have tons of looks and a hot iron/putter day will certainly get you firmly into the weekend mix regardless of what you do on Thursday.
Overall it won’t be the hardest major we’ve ever seen (not even close) which is totally fine after Oakmont, but it should be a fun and beautiful week nonetheless. Portrush and the surrounding area is probably as picturesque of a location to ever host a major and that shouldn’t be lost in the fact that guys are going to shoot great scores.
Enjoy the week and hopefully you’ve enjoyed the content. It’s been such a fun year of Boots and we appreciate you all so much. Thank you, truly.
DFS
Scottie, Rory, Neither?
Matt
Scottie Scheffler $14,200 – Think of Scottie at TPC Sawgrass: plays from the fairway, doesn’t force it off the tee, mints mid irons, and gives himself 10-foot looks all day. That’s exactly what he’ll do here. This is by far his best chance to win an Open Championship given the layout and conditions. If he finds anything with the putter, he could win by record margins.
Adam
Neither - I haven’t gone this route with this choice yet this year but I think this is the time. Scottie is almost certain to set records T2G (unless Jordan Smith does first) but I think there’s room to out putt him and I don’t love the fit for Rory. Both should be in the mix, but this set up can certainly result in an optimal lineup not featuring either of these guys. Prefer to start with Rahm and build from there.
9K + Rahm + Bryson (1 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Ludvig Åberg $9,100 – Do I think Ludvig contends for a win? No. But is he underpriced with a high floor? Absolutely. The narrative is that he’s soft and dogless… not entirely false, but the talent is undeniable. His irons are heating up at the perfect time and he should give himself 15–20 footers all week.
Fade
Xander Schauffele $9,700 – Xander will pull ownership at this number, but the form hasn’t been there. There’s also the defending champion pressure. He may flash at times, but I don’t believe he’s sharp enough to pay off the price in full this week.
Adam
Picks (+1 since no Scottie/Rory)
Jon Rahm $10,400 - Such a confident player on the links and more so here with his runaway victory a while back at the much trickier Portstewart. Has much more upside on and around these greens versus most weeks which is all he needs alongside the elite weekly ball striking.
Shane Lowry $9,300 - I’m surprised that he’s not more popular this week but maybe people are overthinking it. He’s literally the face of the town and has the perfect game for what this place asks for. Having a great season across the board and fully expect his short game to heat back up in these conditions.
Fade
Bob Mac $9,000 - If none of my guys win, I hope Bob wins. But I have to fade someone and I think Bob being a National Open merchant has elevated this price too high. Can’t get there at this price after the recent struggles and showing at Boots.
$8K (1 Pick & 1 Fade)
Matt
Picks
Viktor Hovland $8,300 – This price is too cheap for the ceiling Viktor brings. He’s flushing irons and hitting all his spots—exactly what you want on a second-shot test like this. #OrangeShaft
Fade
Brooks Koepka $8,000 – While the course is gettable, there’s room for blowups if you’re off-line. Brooks looks a bit uncomfortable off the tee right now, and this isn’t the place to be guessing with your driver.
Adam
Picks
Patrick Cantlay $8,100 - Pat hasn’t been playing that much differently this season but he continues to drift down the board. That doesn’t make much sense and he looked super locked in with the conditions this week. The less serious the major conditions the better for Pat and he’s always been comfortable on slower surfaces like these. Sweaters everyday helps too.
Fade
Brooks Koepka $8,000 - Always fine with outright plays on the all time Dog legend, but didn’t love what we saw out there this week. Not dialed in and didn’t seem that interested either which is too risky at this price.
$7K (4 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Hideki Matsuyama $7,500 – When Hideki drifts in price, you don’t ask questions—you buy. The approach play is on fire and he’s got the track record.
Sepp Straka $7,400 – Will be a popular click, but deservedly so. Coming in with his best-ever form, and this is a venue where he’s proven he can compete.
Cam Young $7,200 – Sneaky good Open Championship record already. Love him in positional setups—clubs down, hits wedges, and doesn’t blink.
Corey Conners $7,200 – Probably not ready to win off injury, but he’s still very underpriced. A great course fit and has plenty of T10 upside at this number.
Adam
Picks
Jordan Spieth $7,700 - The man is an Open merchant, and now is freshly a father. Love it. He should be able to put the orange shaft in play and attack from there.
Sepp Straka $7,400 - On the card as well, talk about him there.
Sam Burns $7,300 - On the card as well, talk about him there.
Jason Day $7,200 - On the card as well, talk about him there.
$5K + 6K (8 Picks)
Matt
Picks
Keegan Bradley $6,700 – As motivated as anyone in the field. These are pure Keegan conditions: control off the tee, rain, and mid-iron fireworks.
Si Woo Kim $6,700 – Could easily card both one of the best and worst rounds of the week. But that’s fine—birdies pay. Embrace the chaos.
Daniel Berger $6,600 – DB is comically striping it and comically putting. The irons alone should carry him into the weekend. Still a believer in his links skill set.
Bud Cauley $6,100 – Florida comp courses check out. He looked comfortable all week. This is likely his best chance at a T10 in a major.
Jordan Smith $5,900 – Could legitimately break records in the tee-to-green department. Absolute stat machine.
Nico Echavarría $5,700 – If Nico ships his driver to Colombia, he could club down, stripe every fairway, and knock irons to 6 feet all day. Huge value at this price.
Justin Hastings $5,200 – Low Am at Oakmont and the most polished amateur we saw this week. Big upside if the stage doesn’t overwhelm.
Adam
Picks
Akshay Bhatia $6,700 - This is a great set up for Akshay, and even if it’s breezy he should have little issue. Putter has been cold but like it to heat up on these surfaces.
Taylor Pendrith $6,500 - Pendy is probably my favorite driver/putter guy this week, and looked confident out there.
Louis Oosthuizen $6,500 - Great tee time and great course fit for one more major run.
Dustin Johnson $6,300 - DJ looked good for the first time in Boots history and the recent stats back it up.
Andrew Novak $6,200 - Love the balance he brings to the links and this plays into his positional strengths.
Jordan Smith $5,900 - T2G merchant, floor is high.
Nico Echavarria $5,700 -On the card as well, talk about him there.
Stewart Cink $5,300 - This is a place that anyone can compete and maybe Steward Cink who is on fire on the Champions can flip the Tom Watson script and be the old guy in the mix this week.
One and Done
Matt, Adam, and Vincent are in a OAD competition of man vs machine. YTD in parentheses.
In-Season
Vincent AI ($6.126M): Hovland. He brings elite approach play (2nd) that should thrive when iron precision becomes the primary separator at Royal Portrush. The Norwegian has the talent to break through in major championship golf when conditions favor his strengths as this Open host does.
Matt ($5.427M): Bob Mac. I didn’t love what I saw from Bob in the lead-up, but this is a National Open and the ethos of his game fits the moment. “Par mentality” (grab your shirts here) is his specialty—and while you’ll need birdies to keep pace, minting the center of the green gives him plenty of chances to roll in putts. He says he loves the course, and if the putter heats up, Bob Mac can absolutely get himself into the mix.
Adam ($5.134M): Rahm. Was pleasantly surprised that I still had Rahm available on what is certainly his best major chance this year, in what has been a much better season overall across the board for him. Love the increased upside with the flatstick on these surfaces and already has won just down the road. A very, very confident man. No creeks to drive into is a plus as well.
Adam ($8.350M): Bob Mac.
Vincent AI ($7.644M): Ludvig.
Matt ($6.707M): Cam Davis.
Outright Selections
Each week 1 point (minus any pre-tournament WDs) will be risked to win the amount they define.
Matt (-4.2 points YTD; this week is to win +8.7 points)
This might be the most unique outright card I’ve ever constructed. Coming into the week, I felt great about Scottie—and seeing the course only reinforced that. Early on, I was leaning toward a single-bullet approach. But after walking the grounds for hours, watching countless players create scoring chances from all over, it became clear: this isn’t a major where elite, long-and-straight ball striking automatically puts you on second base.
This plays more like Sawgrass—every type of golfer is live.
Scottie still grades out best and answers every key question, but I couldn’t justify 5.5–6/1 in a week where the full field is in play. So, for the first time ever, I added dual forecast bets (either golfer finishes 1st or 2nd) and built a card that keeps 8x+ ROI potential, while gaining exposure to the favorite and several legit threats to raise the Claret Jug.
Scottie Scheffler & Rory McIlroy Dual Forecast +2500
Betting the two favorites, how sharp Matt. I am not going to give the case for Scottie again but I will touch on Rory… Outside of him being on a new quest to “win at historic / cool courses”, I love his determination, recent form, and 2025 wedge play. He is coming in with back to back great showings and great approach weeks. He has really dialed in the half wedges to control spin and hit his numbers. Also, we are simply due for a Scottie-Rory dual. Are we just going to go on forever without the two best players duking it out over the weekend in any event, let alone a major? I think no…
Patrick Cantlay +7000
Cantlay is a golfer who always catches our eye at boots. While he is truly an unserious golfer, I believe he really cares in weeks like these… plus, its 70/1 not 35/1. Outside of that, he drove the ball and kept it in play as well as anyone out there this week and hit his mid / short irons great. Pat has historically putt the slow coastal greens really well and is in great approach form.
Scottie Scheffler & Tommy Fleetwood Dual Forecast +8000
Name a positional track across the pond where Scottie and Tommy went 1–2. Le Golf National. This course? Basically Tommy’s dream venue. Club down, hit your windows, flush mid irons. That’s his entire blueprint. Toss in his runner-up here in 2019 and you’ve got a strong case—plus, both have elite comp-course resumes.
Hideki Matsuyama +10000
Deki’s in elite approach form—better than almost anyone in the field. The driver? A mess. But this course takes driver out of your hands more than any other major this year. Anytime Hideki drifts this much, it’s a green light.
Keegan Bradley +10000
Even if I saw poor things from Keegan, I would have considered him in triple digits. Just recently, he beat nearly every golfer in this field on a golf course that asks you to hit your spots off the tee, dial in mid irons, and roll birdie putts. He looked extremely comfortable out there this week. Although he has a very poor Open track record, this venue and these conditions are surely unique. Giving captain a go in an effort to really solidify himself on the Ryder Cup team.
Scottie Scheffler & Collin Morikawa Dual Forecast +12500
I am not the most fond of Collin but in a week where hitting fairways is very important paired with minting mid irons AND forecasted winds to be down. I will give him a chance at this number. Collin looked like a lost puppy until he got the crown jewel in his hand (AKA the orange shaft). From there, his vibe was happy and he looked like the winner we used to know.
Daniel Berger +13000
Last week? +9.0 strokes gained on approach. That’s his best iron week since 2021. The short game? Yes, it’s bad. But if you’re betting DB, you’re betting him to hit 80% greens and not need a short game. This course sets up perfectly—club down, pick your windows, and let the mid irons work.
Lucas Glover +30000
We get one old-guy major win every few years—this could be it. Glover’s quote says it all:
“It’s a smart man’s type of golf. Which doesn’t mean all that much. I’m just kind of a smart golfer these days. I’m not a smart man.”
He’s playing smart, sharp golf. Coming off T9 and T5 finishes while gaining 10+ strokes on approach combined. If he finds anything with the putter, Glove is 100% live.
Adam (-11.5 points YTD; this week is to win +12.9 points)
Probably one of my larger cards of the year but that’s what Boots will do to you as not many “big guns” really jumped out and this has all the makings of a week where you want as many potential spike efforts with the putter as you can get. I felt the same way after being at Royal Liverpool, and have long regretted not taking the longer shot, accuracy + putter guys that week. I won’t make that same mistake again and will fire down the board on guys who fit the profile.
Sepp Straka +5500
This course is ideal for Sepp and his result at Royal Liverpool (T2) a couple of years ago is a huge plus. He has been terrible in the majors this year but none of them have been anywhere near as good as the course fit here that and his best major the last two years has been the Open. Looked fully ready to mint birdies.
Sam Burns +8000
The ball striking has been much improved over the last couple of months but the angle here is the elite Open putting he has displayed over the last few years (spikes in every event we have data for). He can make up for any iron deficiency versus the field with the putter this week and he looked quite confident OTT in what we saw. Was just a shot off the lead entering the final round at Troon and has continued to play solidly in majors since; price is too long.
Hideki Matsuyama +10000
The iron play has been dialed in for weeks on end and the putter is actually trending nicely but it’s the driver that’s been the issue. However, he is an all time long iron merchant and should be able to keep it in play here setting up a ton of clean looks for a player capable of taking it deep. Too much Dog for the price and his ability to get unconscious with birdie conversion is elite.
Jason Day +11000
I was surprised by the Open record for J Day whose put together a string of competitive Open results in recent years including on a great comp at Royal Liverpool (T2) in 2023. The putter is locked in per usual and he’s put up his best results in recent years on tracks that don’t ask much of the driver (like Travy a few weeks ago) which fits the set up here.
Nick Taylor +15000
He has a similar profile to what Harman had coming into Royal Liverpool a couple of years ago with elite accuracy, iron play and putting on display. The prep was super dialed in and he’s a true Man of the North. Lots of Dog as we know.
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
He’s turned into an elite iron player and can absolutely stipe the ball with his long irons which should allow him to outperform his accuracy figures this week. Elite conversion on birdie chances and all the makings of a future Open Champion, will take the flier this week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +22500
In a sentence probably rarely ever written - Bez always catches my eye with how elite his swing in person is. I once again liked what I saw this week and he can absolutely live in the fairways here which should set up tons of looks for one of the better putters in the field. Coming off a career best major result and extremely confident. Great strategic prep as well.
Nico “Nicky Nations” Echavarria +35000
Just a matter of how many fairways he hits because every fairway should result in birdie or hole out eagle. Generational flusher.
Matt McCarty +40000
There’s clearly a ton of talent here with all of the wins over the last year and he’s finding his comfort level on the bigger stages in recent months. Hits fairways, is steady with the iron play, and capable of significant spike efforts on the greens. Huge price due to the debut but the profile is a strong fit.
Vincent (-18.9 points YTD; this week is to win +13.7 points)
Collin Morikawa +4000
His elite accuracy (4th) and approach play (11th) provide the precision needed for Portrush's demanding layout. The iron play specialist has proven major championship mettle and should thrive on a course where distance matters less than placement.
Sepp Straka +5500
The Austrian brings elite iron play (6th) and strong putting (26th) with excellent accuracy (14th) - the perfect trifecta for Portrush. His Open Championship form (4th) indicates he understands Open Championship golf, and his statistical profile matches exactly what this venue rewards.
Matt Fitzpatrick +5500
Fitzpatrick combines strong putting (19th) with solid approach work (26th) and the temperament for major championships. His meticulous course management style suits a venue where strategic thinking trumps raw power.
Daniel Berger +13000
Berger brings elite approach play (3rd) and outstanding accuracy (9th) with strong Open Championship form (10th). His iron precision should flourish on a course where placement trumps power, and his major championship experience gives him the composure to capitalize when conditions favor his methodical play.