Q School Preview
Dye’s Valley Course + Sawgrass CC
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Course, Strategy, and Weather Thoughts
It’s a few months from the Players but we’ve got action in Sawgrass with 2025 PGA Tour Q School. There are plenty of familiar names in the field - familiar to people who are betting a Q School event at least - and a couple of interesting courses to discuss.
We have two extremely short venues by PGA Tour standards with neither course playing over 7,100 yards with the Dye Valley Course playing under 6,900 yards. These are classic positional, Bermuda venues with water hazards a plenty, and they certainly fit the Florida style of golf we’ve come to see at places like nearby TPC Sawgrass and PGA National down the road. We could probably add in Myrtle Beach as a comp from earlier this year, and that was the type of event where some of these players may have teed it up.
Last year was the return of Q School to these venues and unsurprisingly the winner was a player in Harrison Endycott who does some of his best work with driving accuracy. I’m not sure that is the end of the story this week as various driving styles did have success on this leaderboard - likely due to the numerous club down opportunities - but Endycott did win easily here and his driving accuracy at this type of venue has to be noted.
Ultimately, what brought this leaderboard together more overall was short game - both putting and ARG. Endycott and Crowe were well ahead of the pack on the leaderboard and shared just one positive SG category - ARG. The remaining three players who earned their cards all are positive players in one of the two short game categories, and there is effectively no consistent threads across the ball striking areas in last year’s results.
This was likely influenced by the conditions last year and it appears that the winds won’t be quite as influential this go around. However, these are challenging Florida designs and overall we should expect a shift towards the short game elements to continue this week as we have small greens with testy run-off areas.
With that said, I won’t be ignoring the approach play aspects as much as the results from last year may point us towards.
On paper this is a pure positional track where the keys should be - hit fairways, hit greens, make a ton of putts. However, the venues are exposed even to light winds and the data from last year clearly points to short game outweighing the ball striking areas.
In the end we have to take a stand on a profile, even in an event where randomness is going to be sky high. I’ll lean on accuracy and the flatstick more than anything this week, and give a plus to strong ARG play. But as discussed below, I’ll trust PGA Tour reps above any SG data in this event.
Overall the weather looks pretty even across the first two days and it never reaches extreme conditions at any time, so no need to factor in a wave advantage IMO.
With no DFS this week we’re just going to dive right into the bets for Q School and Jerz has tossed in an additional single B at the Grant Thornton.
Overall, as mentioned above, Q School is a wiiiiide open event where pressure plays a bigger factor than almost any event of the year. This is actually exciting for putting together a betting card IMO, and this is a fun event to bet.
It certainly has to be noted that Endycott won here last year after having a full PGA Tour season of experience under his belt and his best finish on Tour that year came on similar surfaces in Bermuda (10th) and he played well in other putter heavy events at the Canadian Open and Fortinet. He also had a T26 on a clear comp at the Honda and grabbed a T28 in the fall on the Bermuda at Sanderson. That all makes lots of sense considering the Bermuda putting focus this week, and I’d certainly bias towards PGA Tour experience here from an outright perspective.
But, with all that being said, it’s absolutely anyone’s game here and a great week to fire bullets down the board.
Bets
Adam’s Selections
Martin Laird +3500
It’s been a long time since Laird has been in this situation, having won most recently on Tour just a few years ago. He brings that experience here this week having ended the year with three straight made cuts including a T17 on a solid comp at the RSM. His best finish of the year was a T9 at Cognizant which is the best result of anyone in this field on my favorite comp and I trust ol’ Marty to get into the mix.
Pierceson Coody +3500
If anyone reading this thought I was giving up on Pierceson then you have been gravely mistaken. In Pierceson we trust, and he’s won multiple times against this quality of field on the KFT. Just two starts removed from a T12 in Bermuda and has elite level driving and putting which is a huge head start against any field of this quality.
Chez Reavie +5000
Clearly didn’t play great golf this season or towards the end of the year, but he’s a positional, short course specialist against a rather unserious field. I trust him to play from the fairway all week long, and he’s got tons of experience to handle what is on the line this week. Too big of a number despite the form considering the long term class and ideal positional course fit.
Sam Bennett +7000
Played fine enough this year on the KFT finishing 31st on the points list, and this is the positional style of golf where his elite driving accuracy can shine through. Played well in Canada last year which is crossover success with Endycott, and overall he’s more than talented enough to claim this level of event. Seems like a forgotten name among the young guns.
Norman Xiong +10000
He has yet to deliver for me, but I remain a steadfast believer in the spike approach, spike putting profile that is Norman Xiong especially at a place like this which will favor his style of play. He was an absolute stud in college, and it hasn’t quite come together yet as a pro but I love this spot for him to breakout.
Hayden Buckley +10000
He has been playing unserious golf for a vast majority of the year, but playing Hayden Buckley on positional Bermuda is among the foundational golf betting rules that I have. So, in the triple digits against this field I will ride considering he did spike a couple times this year for Top 7 finishes and more importantly, it’s positional Bermuda and Hayden Buck.
Carl Yuan +12000
A completely random golfer, but he was dominant at the KFT level which is probably a step above this. Most importantly, his best results do tend to come on the positional Bermuda venues like this one as we’ve seen with Top 6 finishes in the last two years at Sanderson, Bermuda, Sony, and Valspar. A great week to take a flier on a guy like Carl who has shown the skill set on similar Tour level set ups.
Matt’s Selections
Adrian Dumont de Chassart +2200
ADDC is coming into this event off of some of his best PGA Tour play of his rookie season. He burst onto the scene with an early Korn Ferry Tour win in mid-2023 and followed that up with a ton of top-ten finishes. Once he got onto the PGA Tour, he struggled. Fast forward to late 2024; he has rattled off a T3 and T25 in his last two starts. Simply put, ADDC has shown some great form of late, and we have seen him get extremely hot in bunches in his young career.
Garrick Higgo +3000
Higgo is one of the more proven golfers in this field, and he has also played some better golf of late. Higgo has made his last four starts during this fall swing. The last time he made four cuts in a row was in February of this year. Higgo knows how to win, and he has the ability to make birdies in bunches.
Alistair Docherty +3000
Docherty had a really solid Korn Ferry Tour season in 2024. He has gotten into the mix various times, including at the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic. Most recently, Docherty finished runner-up at the 2024 KFT, which was also played at a Dye Course. Last year, he played this event and finished tied for 21st. Looking deeper into that result, he started the event with an eight-over round of 78 and played his final 54 holes at 11 under to shoot -3. This was easily one of the best weekends in that field and Docherty should be far more confident heading into the event this year.
Alejandro Tosti +4000
This number seems too long for a high-ceiling player in such a weak field. Tosti ran through Korn Ferry fields (sometimes) in his career there. Like always, he can easily blitz a field and win by four. He is not too far removed from leading the Shriners field in birdies, and if he is hitting fairways here, he will have a massive advantage. I will surely buy a 40 on Tosti in the weakest field he has played in a year.
Grant Thornton Bonus Bet
Jeeno Thitikul-Tom Kim +550
These two come in with a combined age of forty-three (43). These two are not only young but extremely hungry. Thitikul owns Tiburón Golf Club, as she is currently the defending champion of the CME Group Tour Championship and has finished inside the top ten in seven consecutive trips here. It is quite clear that she is comfortable playing this golf course. On the other hand, Tom Kim is a young stud who does not care what event he is playing; he just wants to win. TK is coming off a great week in the Bahamas, as he finished runner up to none other than Scottie Scheffler. TK is a winner, and this young team simply cares about winning.