2023 Wimbledon Preview
The crown jewel of the tennis grand slam calendar is upon us as the world’s best ascend upon the “Championships”. And with it, the lightning fast grass courts of the All England Club.
In many ways, similar to how the famed links courses of the UK have been overrun by golf’s most powerful players we’ve seen much the same on these hallowed surfaces as big serving is the story. Simply looking to the recent contenders on both sides of the draw illustrates that.
On the men’s side the 2022 final featured Djokovic vs Kyrgios with hold percentages entering the event of 88% and 93% respectively. The 2021 final saw Djokovic vs Berrettini with hold percentages entering the event of 88% and 91% respectively.
As we look to the men’s draw this week only five players in the Top 50 arrive with hold percentages of 88% or above which speaks to how high of a bar those finalists set from the service line:
Kyrgios 91%
Djokovic 89%
Hurkacz 88%
Jarry 88%
Tsitsipas 88%
And, the impact of the power game has begun to shine through on the women’s side as well. Elena Rybakina is one of the biggest servers in the women’s game and carried a 79% hold percentage entering this event last year. The year prior, Ash Barty won coming in with an 80% hold percentage.
Those are sky high marks as only four players in the Top 50 on the women’s side come into this event with hold percentages of 79% or above:
Garcia 84%
Sabalenka 83%
Swiatek 80%
Rybakina 80%
The service game really is the start and end point for any handicapping efforts this week. The speed of these surfaces give the best servers in the field the ability to place such pressure on their opponents that the bar for contention is quite high with the serve.
Tennis Abstract has some nice advanced metrics on the impact players on either side of the draw have with their serves if you want to leverage that this week in your selections - men | women.
We unfortunately lack much of a prep schedule at all as the grass court season - if you can even call it that - features so few events that the sample size is not of the greatest value unfortunately. History at Wimbledon is really going to be of the most value and a run to at least the 4th round previously has been a near requirement for serious contention on either side of the draw.
Overall, the women’s side of the draw this year appears much more open than the men’s side where Novak Djokovic seems singularly focused on another serious pursuit of a first calendar slam. He arrives at the All England Club in search of a 5th consecutive Wimbledon title.
On the women’s side Iga Swiatek is the favorite but this is the only major where she hasn’t advanced to a quarter final.
So, we’ll try to factor all of that into our betting approach this week and go with a few different bets - starting with a winning parlay as the headline bet:
Headline Outright Parlay
Djokovic & Sabalenka (+1100)
There’s no need to explain the Novak angle. He’s playing the game in a different stratosphere than anyone else in the draw and he’s a master on these surfaces.
For Sabalenka she returns to Wimbledon after missing last year because of the ban due to the Ukraine War. It was here in 2021 that she made a first grand slam semifinal, and it’s only been up since then with a major in her pocket in Melbourne earlier this year.
With the double faults now under control she’s reached a career high hold percentage this calendar year of 83% and statistically she has a stat line similar to the men’s game. On these surfaces that reward power there’s not a more powerful and skilled player in the women’s game today.
Women’s Draw
Petra Kvitova +1300
The 2011 and 2014 Wimbledon champion is back to near her very best when healthy with a win earlier this year over Rybakina in the Miami final and a title on this surface in Berlin a couple of weeks ago. Her serve is as dangerous as it has been in years and few players are as comfortable on the grass courts of the All England Club.
Caroline Garcia +6500
She has been the most dangerous server in the women’s game this year and backs it up with serious power from the forehand side. Her aggression is both her biggest asset and liability as over aggression in the return game has held her back from reaching the levels in majors that her talent should produce. Gets a reasonable draw here though and despite never reaching a QF here it seems like the surface she’s best suited for.
Luidmila Samsonova +8000
At her best there are few better from the service line in the women’s game and she comes off a career best year last year. Another player hit by the Wimbledon ban last year but she made the fourth round here in her only previous appearance in 2021. All about keeping the unforced error rate under control, but as powerful as any in the draw.
Belinda Bencic +10000 (To Win Quarter +1600)
A junior Wimbledon champion who has a game tailor made for these surfaces. Combines a strong service game with a lethal ability to take the ball early on the return and dictate play. Continues to come up short in these big events but these odds are simply too long with a relatively open draw considering Swiatek’s slight weakness on this surface.
Elise Mertens (To Win Quarter +3500)
She continually makes steady runs in the slams and there is plenty of value in winning quarter bets in this portion of the draw due to Swiatek being slightly over priced. Another dangerous server who could heat up on these fast surfaces.
Men’s Draw
Overall just taking some fliers here.
Nick Kyrgios +4500
Absolutely zero prep, almost negative prep actually, coming into this event but the serve is a gift that seemingly never leaves him. There’s only a few players who actually are skilled enough to win here and he’s one of them. There’s enough baked into this number to make up for the uncertainty about where his game is at, and even if he goes out early I’m sure it will be entertaining enough.
Taylor Fritz +6000
A poor run in the short grass court season boosts this number, but the serve looked as lethal as ever in those couple of appearances. Really should have made the semi here last year, and it’s the surface his raw skills should translate best. Gets a wide open draw with Ruud showing little interest for competing on this surface, and Sinner certainly not a dominant force yet.
Frances Tiafoe +7500 (To Win Quarter +1200)
Among the best servers in his section of the draw, and comes here off of a title on this surface in Stuttgart. The path into the semis goes through Alcaraz but Tiafoe went toe-to-toe with him in the US Open semi and his movement especially at the net makes him likely to continue to improve on this surface.
Stefanos Tsitsipas +10000
This is just a wild price on a player who is normally close to single digits in slams. He’s shown little form of late but his tool box is ideal for the grass, and his draw is without Alcaraz or Novak. Among the five most talented players in the tournament without a doubt.
Tallon Griekspoor (To Win Quarter +2200)
Quentin Halys (To Win Quarter +4000)
Alright these can be talked about together as they both are long-shot quarter winning bets on guys who stick out in the advanced serving metrics. We’ve seen quarter final runs out of these type of players here before and both are in the two considerably easier draws (aka without Novak or Carlos).
As always, best of luck!
