2023 US Open Preview
It really doesn’t get much better than this for me from a sporting event perspective. I genuinely consider one of the best perks of living in New York City to be the ability to attend the US Open each year, and I’ll certainly be there a few days over the coming fortnight. Due to that I’ll probably be overexposed on selections, so tail at your own risk but hopefully this preview can present some ideas for you to bet on your own accord.
The surfaces at the US Open this year are rumored to be slower than previous years, which isn’t overly surprising as these hard courts have slowed a fair amount over the last half dozen years. Obviously this is relative as they’re still hard courts, but these will likely be on the slower side than the Australian Open earlier this year. And, importantly probably slower than some of the prep events in Cincy and Canada in the last couple of weeks.
Prep Event Results
Cincy Men’s Djokovic over Alcaraz
Cincy Women’s Gauff over Muchova
Canada Men’s Sinner over Paul
Canada Women’s Pegula over Samsonova
What this means is that the serve should be a little less lethal on both sides of the draw, and well-rounded players who are effective on offense and defense should benefit. This also opens the door for more styles of play and subsequently more players are in the mix theoretically.
I think it’s probably most useful to fly through the quarters on each side of the draw, and get a feel for who we think can contend into the second week.
We’ll start on the Men’s side:
Alcaraz Quarter
It should be very smooth sailing for the defending champion and recent winner of Wimbledon through to the QF here. There are some reasonable players in the top half of this quarter, but any of them defeating Alcaraz over five sets would be shocking. It’s the bottom half of the quarter where things are interesting.
It’s likely a battle on the bottom side between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner. Zverev missed out last year with injury but was a semifinalist here in 2021 and a finalist in 2020. He looks very much his old self of late with a title in Hamburg, and a strong run to the Semis in Cincy where he lost a somewhat close match to Novak. Sinner of course lost a heartbreaker here to Alcaraz last year in the QF and the Italian arrives off of a marquee title in Canada. Zverev leads the head to head 3-1 and issues on the serve continue to plague Sinner so we’ll give the slight edge to the German.
Projection: Alcaraz (-190) over Zverev
Medvedev Quarter
Not the most difficult of draws for the 2020 champion with the largest test likely coming in the Round of 16 against Alex de Minaur. The Aussie has been on the rise for much of the year and did defeat Medvedev in straight sets in Canada. Zverev then dispatched Medvedev in the 2nd round in Cincy. So, not arriving in the crispest of form but this is where he does his best work and I’d expect him to prevail in a rematch with de Minaur.
There’s a lot of unknowns on the bottom half with Rublev in poor form and Khachanov slowly returning from injury. For me that opens the door for Matteo Berrettini who also is coming back from injury but played well at Wimbledon where he lost to Alcaraz in four sets. Suffered losses to Sinner and Auger Aliassime in hard court tune ups but both were competitive, and again there’s not a lot to fear down here except for Hurkacz who won’t love these slower surfaces. Back to back quarter final appearances here for Berrettini and a fair chance for a third straight.
Projection: Medvedev (+125) over Berrettini
Ruud Quarter
Easily the most wide open quarter in the draw. Ruud, Korda, Tiafoe, Paul, and Rune will all see themselves as capable of advancing here. On paper the slight edge is with Rune statistically as a player who can excel across the board, but he comes in slightly injured and not the most trustworthy player to back.
Ruud has the best pedigree but he didn’t look the part in the tune up events, and the same could be said of Korda. Tiafoe made a run to the final here last year and is a complete wildcard. And, then there’s another talented American in Tommy Paul who bested Alcaraz in Canada before falling to Sinner in the semis. He faced Alcaraz again in Cincy where he lost a tightly contested three setter.
The picture is extremely foggy in this section but Paul has played well all year including a semi-final out of an equally open draw in Australia and Ruud just seems to find a way on these type of surfaces in big events. If Ruud and Paul do face it will be a rematch of a tightly contested five set win for Ruud here last year. We’ll go the other way this time.
Projection: Paul (+650) over Ruud
Djokovic Quarter
Thoughts and prayers for everyone in this section of the draw. Novak bounced back from his shock loss at Wimbledon to beat Alcaraz in Cincy and there’s not much for him to fear with this bunch. He’s lost just once on hard courts this year - to Medvedev in Dubai - and he’ll have a point to prove after being barred from this event for the last couple of years.
Tsitsipas actually checks a lot of the boxes we’d be looking for here but he’s shown no challenge to Djokovic in recent years.
Projection: Djokovic (-500) over Tsitsipas
Final
Projection: Djokovic (+125) over Alcaraz
And now for the women’s side:
Swiatek Quarter
The slower it gets the better it will be for the defending champion who should relish the conditions once more this year. She defended here French Open title and made her deepest career run yet at Wimbledon last month. And, there’s very little to be overly concerned about before the quarters in this draw.
On the bottom half of the draw the likely opponent in the quarters is Coco Gauff who arrives in the best form of her career. She took down Swiatek en route to the Cincy title last week which was a second US title this summer after also winning in Washington. That run was without losing a set and only Pegula and Swiatek have taken sets off of her since a return to the hard courts this summer.
It should be a fascinating quarter final on Ashe if it develops with the American support behind Gauff, but I’d expect Swiatek to adapt on a surface which should benefit her versus the Cincy courts. Swiatek still leads the head to head 7-1.
Projection: Swiatek (+100) over Gauff
Rybakina Quarter
Rybakina retired against Paolini in Cincy and these aren’t going to be the best surfaces for her here. That means that there are opportunities in this section. The most likely to capitalize on the opportunity seem to be Belinda Bencic or Karolina Muchova.
Bencic lost a nail biter to Swiatek at Wimbledon and the Swiss has had the bulk of her major success in New York. And, then there’s Muchova who is having the best year of her career. The Czech lost in the final of the French and made it to the final in Cincy where she lost to Gauff. Shed battle Swiatek in Montreal as well taking it to a deciding third set as she did at the French.
Sakkari is the highest seed after Rybakina but there’s not much to point to for why her major struggles will improve here.
Projection: Muchova (+400) over Bencic
Pegula Quarter
Pegula has made it to the quarters at five of the last seven slams but has lost every single one of them including here last year. Rarely will she have arrived with more confidence though after winning Montreal with defeats of both Gauff and Swiatek. That run to the title was impressive and it should be relatively clean sailing into another quarter here. But, Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, and Liudmila Samsonova will all be worthy adversaries.
The top of this should see an advantage for the Wimbledon champ - Marketa Vondrousova - with limited pedigree beyond an out of form Garcia to contend with. The shock champ at Wimbledon has looked sharp since with solid efforts on the summer hard courts with losses only to Gauff and Swiatek. A quarter between her and Pegula seems most likely here with the edge in the hands of the recent grand slam champion.
Projection: Vondrousova (+400) over Pegula
Sabalenka Quarter
Does the summer of Sabalenka vs Jabeur continue?
Sabalenka bounced back from her loss to Jabeur in London with a win in Cincy but she subsequently found semi final trouble again losing to Muchova. For Jabeur that Cincy start was the first since her Wimbledon title loss, and last years finalist here should relish the court conditions in New York this year.
It’s hard to see one of those two not advancing here and it’s of course razor thin between them. We’ll give Jabeur the lean due to the conditions and the recent slam triumph.
Projection: Jabeur (+500) over Sabalenka
Final
Projection: Swiatek (+240) over Vondrousova
Outright Bets
Overall kind of a lame tournament to bet outright with not a whole lot of value on the board, but we’ve tried our best to put together an entertaining card and will keep the Discord updated with any in-event bets we play.
Parlay
Djokovic & Swiatek (+680)
Absolutely nothing fancy or exciting here, but there still seems to be a bit of value in this number with both players starting at plus money here when I’d have them both shorter than that. The surface sets up perfectly for Swiatek to dictate rallies and win extended points. For Djokovic he’s been a machine on hard courts all year and the best player of the generation will have a game plan prepared if he comes up against Alcaraz once again.
Women
Muchova +2200 (with Novak at +4630)
She’s been at a career best level this year with the tight loss at Roland Garros to Swiatek being the peak. Warmed up nicely in Cincy last week and has a pretty friendly quarter with Rybakina potentially injured and on a less than ideal surface.
Vondrousova +2200 (with Novak at +4630)
Can she go back to back? It’s a rarity to win Wimbledon and then New York but statistically she ranks out 2nd for us this week so there is still some value in this number. Not an overly difficult path back to the semis with Pegula the main threat and the quarters have been a huge barrier for her.
Jabeur +2200 (with Novak at +4630)
She’s come as close as you can get with out winning a slam in recent years, and the most recent Wimbledon loss will sting the most. But, the path here is very similar to what it was in London with Sabalenka a likely quarter final opponent. She took down Sabalenka in the Wimbledon semi and there’s no reason she should be at an extended price versus the other main contenders with her track record the last 24 months.
Keys +6000 (with Novak at +11400)
Statistically a top ten player for the last year or so, and at career best levels returning serve. Would likely have to go through Pegula which is a challenge but not an overwhelming one, and she’s had more slam success than her country women including the 2017 final here. Fresh off a quarter final appearance at Wimbledon.
Bencic +8000
I’m required to bet Bencic at every slam and I’m not going to stop here after we came closer to success than ever before against Swiatek at Wimbledon. It’s also fun to yell “Allez Belinda” with the Swiss fans.
Men
Zverev +3600
I really think it’s a two man race on the men’s side between Alcaraz and Djokovic but there’s a path for Sinner, Medvedev, and Zverev.
Zverev is at the most favorable odds of that trio as he’s still on the injury comeback trail, but he’s been great here when healthy making it to at least the semis in his last two appearances in New York. Looked good in Cincy which continued an excellent summer and the only one we’ll take a dice roll on the men’s side.
Berrettini +17000
When healthy he’s one of the Top 10 players in grand slams with trips to back to back QFs here, and he’s made at least the 4th round in eight of his last nine slams including at Wimbledon. Spoke about his renewed confidence after those runs and we’ll take the flier here at a price that doesn’t reflect that pedigree. Tough opening round test to clear in Humbert.
As always, best of luck!
