2023 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
Djokovic (-125) returns in search of a 10th title
The Basics
Location: Melbourne Park
Event Type: Slam
Court: Hard
Speed: Fast
Balls: Dunlop
Defending Champ (M): Rafael Nadal
Defending Champ (W): Ash Barty - Retired
TV: Every match on ESPN or ESPN+
If the fact you’re on Vincerix and this article is about the Australian Open wasn’t obvious enough - we’re adding tennis outright betting to the site.
We make no promises that you’ll make money from anything we write within these digital walls, and that’s extra true as we fine tune the best strategies for profitable card construction on the courts. But, here is what we do know:
1) Betting on tennis is fun AF. I repeat fun AF.
2) Many of the things that make golf profitable to bet on ring true with tennis. Outright odds are favorable. The game is deeply, deeply analytical. There are stats galore. A variety of different playing conditions favor a variety of different players. And, of course, it is an individual sport.
There is however one material difference which is that in the slams at least, the big fish are really big.
Novak Djokovic tops the men’s draw at -125 and Iga Swiatek tops the women’s draw at +220. However, the inevitability in the men’s game is waining with Djokovic the lone Big 3 member still firing on all cylinders. And, Swiatek is the class of the women’s game but with a plethora of talented players right on her heels.
Outside of the majors, healthy prices cash with regularity and due to that we’ll be adding many more events to the site throughout the year. And as we said the slams have become less of a dominion of domination in recent years, and at a site where we thrive on futures bets we’re placing a bet that a golden age of tennis betting may be on the way.
Let’s do it!
Australian Open - Men’s Draw
Carlos Alcaraz’s ascendency into a household name has been put on a temporary hold as injury keeps the youngster out of the action here. And due to that it’s the defending champion - Rafael Nadal - who claims the top seed in Melbourne. But he arrives having won just one of six matches since returning from an injury of his own in October, and as we look at the top names on the odds board we see his seeding doesn’t reflect his standing in the market this week.
Novak Djokovic (-125)
The man firmly atop the board is Novak Djokovic who hasn’t been beaten on the dark blue courts of Melbourne since 2018. Yet his highly controversial exclusion from last year’s event means he’s not technically on the hunt for a fourth consecutive title here. But for all intents and purposes he is, and he’s been a man on a mission since reappearing following another ban at September’s US Open.
His first match back was at the Laver Cup where he fell to Felix Auger Aliassime but since then he’s traveled far and wide to crush all comers. 24-1 since that loss to Felix with titles in Tel Aviv, Astana, the Tour Finals, and last week in Adelaide. His lone loss in the stretch coming to Holger Rune in the Paris final.
In this type of form, on courts where he has lifted nine titles, and trying to prove a point, it appears the only man who can beat him is himself. But, on that front there has been a bit of concern with a hamstring injury that flared up in a close win over Seb Korda in the Adelaide final and reappeared in practice this week. Something to watch as he likely waltzes through the opening four rounds.
A strong challenger will likely await in the quarters however with Rublev, Kyrgios, and recent nemesis Rune on the top side of his quarter.
Daniil Medvedev +600
He’s played in back to back finals here, and shares a quarter with the out of form Nadal. But Medvedev himself is also not at his peak having been swept at the Tour Finals and he just lost to Djokovic in straight sets last week at Adelaide. He did win a title in October in Vienna and the record here speaks for itself, but others seem just as likely to challenge Djokovic at better prices. Will face stiff competition from trending Seb Korda in his section of the draw.
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1500
For a player who has slightly underachieved on the biggest stages, this is the grounds on which he has thrived the most. Three semis in his last four starts in Melbourne breeds confidence, and he is in fine form having won five straight matches beating the likes of Medvedev and Berrettini.
He’s faced Djokovic three times since October, losing all three matches. However he had him on the ropes in Paris and fought gamely at the Tour Finals. Talented enough to beat every player in the field, but yet to do it when it matters most.
Nick Kyrgios +1600
The game’s biggest showman arrives on home soil in classically questionable form. He hasn’t played a competitive single’s match since early October but in typical bravado that doesn’t seem to be of much concern to him. He’s played a reasonable amount of doubles in that stretch, but the bigger concern is likely the history here in Melbourne.
He hasn’t made a QF at his home slam since 2015, which is puzzling on fast conditions he should enjoy. But as we saw in his deep slam runs last year the stage can be overwhelming at times for the immensely talented Australian, and the fervor on home soil can be intense. A major dice roll at +1600.
Rafael Nadal +1800
The defending champion at some of the longer odds in his storied career. They are however a fair reflection of a man who has won just a single match since the US Open. Injury concerns continue to linger and the lead in to his title last year was much, much better than how he arrives here.
It is Nadal at a slam though and maybe there is some magic still in these tireless legs. He’ll be tested straight out of the gates against talented British youngster Jack Draper, and could see a rematch of his US Open loss to Frances Tiafoe in the section as well.
Taylor Fritz +2000
The American’s best chance to break an extended major drought is in the hands of the Californian who has played impressively of late. His recent run of play has seen a title in Tokyo, a semi at the Tour Finals where he battled Djokovic tightly, and he helped the US lift the United Cup last week with a good win over Berrettini.
The service game is among the best in the world, but still lacks a bit of the defensive abilities that will be required to win of these. He has a favorable quarter headlined by out of form Casper Ruud, and a first slam semifinal should be the expectation. Can he deliver?
Men’s Betting Card
We’re building our outright card in a similar fashion to golf, looking for a roughly 7x multiple if one of our players lifts the trophy. We are also betting each player to advance from their quarter (aka make the semis) due to the obvious giant lingering over the draw. Playing for a 7x win would also present hedging opportunities should these players advance to a final or semi against Djokovic.
But we’re also here for the entertainment and it wouldn’t be fun at all to bet Djokovic so we are on a mission to beat him. We of course would like to avoid him for as long as possible so we’re taking four of our six players from the half of the draw opposite of him. We’ll see how it works out.
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1500 | +250 (Win Quarter)
He’s lost back to back semifinals here to Medvedev and could very likely face him again in the semis this year. But he appears to have turned a corner against the Russian having beaten him in consecutive hard court matches, most recently in late November.
His serve looked to be near career best levels at the recent United Cup as he rolled through the competition. Statistically only Djokovic and Alcaraz have been better over the last year and he seems the most likely winner if Djokovic falters. We’ll hop on board at 15/1.
Matteo Berrettini +4500 | +550 (Win Quarter)
The flame throwing Italian continues to be a man for the big occasion having advanced to at least the QFs in five consecutive grand slams. Included in that stretch was a semi here last year where he fell to Nadal in four sets.
His form coming in isn’t necessarily magnificent but the ability to perform on the sport’s biggest stages is significant as five set matches ask a much different question than the weekly Tour stops. He finds himself in probably the weakest quarter with Fritz being the main roadblock between Berrettini and another slam semi. We’ll take the value on the more proven grand slam performer to find a way by the American.
Cam Norrie +6000 | +600 (Win Quarter)
As of this writing Norrie is 6-0 in 2023 - he’ll play once more for a title tonight - as his career run of play has continued into the new year. He made a first grand slam semi at Wimbledon over the summer and then advanced to a first 4th Round at the US Open in September.
His counter-punching style frustrates and wears down opponents as the left hander continues to be one of the most difficult opponents to face in the sport of late.
We’re taking Norrie in the same quarter as Tsitsipas because we believe the finalist from the top half of the draw comes from this quarter. We’ll take two of the top three contenders in this quarter - Felix Auger Aliassme - the other threat and look to get one of them to the final.
Andrey Rublev +8500 | +1400 (Win Quarter)
There is a bit of heart in this one as Rublev is just an incredibly nice guy who I became a huge fan of at the US Open. He literally walks the court for an hour after the match signing autographs and taking photos with every single person. It’s top, top level professionalism and he’s gained a fan here for sure.
But this number is also pretty disrespectful to consistently one of the Top 10 players in the game. Yes, the draw is brutal. Coming up against Thiem in the opener, before playing Kyrgios or Rune, and then Djokovic awaits. But, he just beat Tsitsipas and Medvedev at the Tour Finals and picked up another title in Gijon in October.
Back to back slam QFs for the first time in his career leading in here and seemingly getting closer to turning all of the talent into a more refined final product.
Frances Tiafoe +10000 | +1400 (Win Quarter)
The Nadal/Medvedev quarter seems to be the best chance to sneak a long-shot through. Neither player is firing on all cylinders and there is a myriad of lively contenders who have advanced deep in recent slams. The first one we’ll take a chance on is Tiafoe who may just now be figuring out just how great of a player he can be.
His electric serving took him to the doorstep of a famous triumph as a finalist in NYC in September, and he’s been relatively consistent in performances since then. The route back to the QFs will go through Nadal again here, just as it did when he took him down on Ashe. Based on current form there’s every reason to expect Tiafoe to have a great chance if they meet again here.
Denis Shapovalov +11000 | +1400 (Win Quarter)
Seb Korda will be the trendy pick in this section of the quarter but we’ll go with the more proven Shapovalov at a price alongside Tiafoe. He made it to the QFs here last year before falling to Nadal in five sets and these speedy conditions are what the powerful Canadian enjoys. The form hasn’t been razor sharp of late but he did pick up a late season win against Fritz and took care of business in Adelaide before falling to Djokovic in the quarters.
Will need to find a way by Medvedev to make a deep run here but he has beaten the Russian twice and just took him the distance in the final in Vienna in October.
Australian Open - Women’s Draw
One thing is for sure on the women’s side of the draw, and that is we will not be seeing a repeat winner. Ash Barty walked away a champion after winning on home soil last year, and the 2021 champion is also not here as Naomi Osaka takes a year away to have a child. But that doesn’t mean there is any doubt about who the favorite is as we look at the top of the board.
Iga Swiatek +220
2022 was the Iga show as she reached the Aussie SF before lifting the title at the French and US Opens. She won 37 matches in a row at one point and cemented herself as the next dominating force in the women’s game. But, that stretch of seeming invincibility has waned and she’s most vulnerable under the conditions that will be prevalent in Melbourne.
She also has recently been defeated by two of her main threats in the draw - falling to Sabalenka in her last match of 2022 and Pegula last week at the United Cup. Those were both players she defeated en route to the title in NYC and they’ll take confidence that those breakthroughs may be precursors to slam success against the 21-year-old.
Nothing much to fear in her quarter but she’ll be significantly tested in the latter stages of the event.
Aryna Sabalenka +900
One of the most powerful players in the women’s game, Sabalenka may finally be ready to see it come to fruition on the biggest stage. She lost in the US Open semis to Swiatek in three sets before flipping the script and defeating the world #1 in Fort Worth to close the year. And she started the year looking extremely focused as she cruised to the title last week in Adelaide without dropping a set.
Biggest threat in her quarter comes from Ons Jabeur whom Sabalenka has defeated in both meetings on hard courts.
Jessica Pegula +1000
The American advanced to three slam quarters last year and she fell to the game’s elite in each run. First was Ash Barty in Melbourne, then Swiatek in both Paris and NYC.
But those performances plus a title in Mexico means she’s seeded 3rd here and won’t face anyone seeded higher than her until the semis. Where she would likely again face Swiatek, but with a boost in confidence having defeated her at the United Cup last week.
However, that doesn’t mean things are straightforward as her reward for the 3rd seed is the deepest quarter by far. It’s going to be a rock fight to advance with Swiatek likely awaiting, and due to that we’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet.
Caroline Garcia +1200
She won the title in Cincy before storming into a US Open semifinal where confounding tactics saw her easily dismissed by the seasoned Jabeur. The run continued all the way to year’s end though as she would earn the season ending title in Fort Worth defeating Sabalenka in the final.
Looked sharp in her first few matches of the year before falling to Bencic the other day, which is fine considering it adds a bit of warm up time in Melbourne. Should be licking her chops with the easiest quarter in the draw.
Coco Gauff +1300
Amazingly still just 18, but appearing here for the 4th time and with a major final in her pocket after last year’s run in Paris. Her level slipped in the back half of the year, but rises back into the contending names on the odds board with an easy title victory last week in Auckland. The level of competition there was not strong however, and she hasn’t shown an ability to beat the top names as of late.
A big ask at 13/1 with Swiatek likely awaiting in the QFs.
Ons Jabeur +1400
Finalist at Wimbledon. Finalist at the US Open. Quite the way to end the year for the Tunisian who has found another level all of a sudden.
She’s capable of beating anyone in the draw and deserves respect for showing the ability to work her way through the challenges of a two week slam. But that final at Wimbledon against the upstart Rybakina may have been the most realistic chance to lift a major trophy, and it’s fair to wonder if this level can be maintained for another slam season. Hasn’t been nearly as sharp since the US Open run and these odds reflect that.
Women’s Betting Card
The last year has seen the same names pop up repeatedly in the biggest events and the list above likely features the winner. But the three set nature of the women’s game does open the door for long-shots and unexpected champions are much more likely on this side than the mens.
That being said you realistically need to choose one of the top few names and package them with a couple long-shots. Swiatek is formidable but probably most vulnerable here and at Wimbledon. We’ll look to beat here with these three.
Aryna Sabalenka +900 | +200 (Win Quarter)
Her odds have moved a bit lower since grabbing this number immediately after the draw, but she’s playable down to 7/1 as the clear best option among those at the top of the board.
The draw is very favorable and the form she showed in Adelaide is exactly what you’d want to see in preparation for this event. She’s spoken about leveling her emotions to handle the biggest of moments which has been the only thing holding her back to this point. Her skillset is ideal for the conditions in Melbourne and a tight US Open semi against Swiatek will be useful knowledge to draw upon if she makes a deep run.
Defeated Swiatek comfortably in Fort Worth late in 2022, and just needs to avoid beating herself here. The price is worth the risk IMO but prepare for some real stress watching her try to win this.
Karolina Pliskova +11000 | +1100 (Win Quarter)
We’re simply not going to mess around with the top side of the bracket as Swiatek looms in the first quarter and the second quarter is a murderer’s row. We’ve got Sabalenka in the bottom quarter, and that means we can sling some long-shots in the Garcia quarter.
The former world #1 looked in better form for much of 2022 and has always done her best work on the hard courts in Melbourne and NYC. She struggled very late in the year but picked up a couple solid wins in Adelaide this week and her experience in a wide-open section of the draw is meaningful. We’ll see how much gas is left in the tank but a fair number with a very doable path to the quarters.
Leylah Fernandez +11000 | +1200 (Win Quarter)
An injury plagued campaign kept the 2021 US Open finalist from continuing her upward trajectory but she’s close to full health once again, and all that mental fortitude that led to great success in 2021 is still there.
We’ll know quite swiftly if this ticket is live or not with battles against tough French opponents in the first two rounds. But she’s proven at this level and it’s not unrealistic to see her grinding by Cornet and going toe to toe with Garcia. Take care of that and the quarter becomes hers for the taking.
As always, best of luck!
