Outright Selections

The venue changes this week but the basic principle of you better be able to make birdies continues on in LIV’s brief swing through Australia and Singapore. Last week opened up pretty much any style of play to the birdie making party as the driving conditions were so simple, but there should be a tad more of a question asked off of the tee this week. Playing from these wet fairways will set up target practice and an extremely high GIR rate on these big surfaces. From there it of course becomes a question of who can make the most putts but the penalty for big misses from the tee and the advantage of playing from the short grass should increase the OTT importance a bit versus last week.

The putter remains very big though when you consider how massive these surfaces are and the relative ease of putting on them with minimal break. So the ball striking threshold is a bit higher than last week here OTT but you’re still going to have to make a ton of putts because there isn’t a massive difference in makability on short or medium range putts. ARG play is greatly minimized and approach play probably falls a tad.

With that focus it seems like a chance to skip over some of the bigger names at the top for me, and see if we can’t find an in-form driver who could pop on these easy to putt surfaces.

Adam’s Selections

Louis Oosthuizen +1800

I figured the Louis price would drop as he continues to play extremely high quality golf but it didn’t dive as much as I thought so I will give it another go. He is living in the fairways from the tee as he tends to do when his game is firing, and the putter is scaring the hole pretty much every time. He didn’t really do anything wrong last week just got beat, and we saw plenty of guys carry form over from a good Adelaide result last year. As sharp as anyone in the field and more than capable of putting up solid ball striking figures and elite upside with the putter.

Abe Ancer +2800

When you consider gaining with accuracy from the tee there are few better than Ancer and he is playing some of the best golf of his LIV career with a win followed up consecutive T9s. He’s shot 64 or better in four of his last 11 rounds and is starting to look like the top level player that he was building towards on the PGA Tour. Should present himself with a ton of opportunities this week and at 28/1 there is a fair risk/reward to see if the putter can heat up.

Sergio Garcia +3000

Another of the venues where Sergio has come so close on LIV and he returns in solid form after contending efforts in Miami and Mayakoba already this year. The driving has been top level all season long and it will be target practice for him from the fairways this week. Looked comfortable on the greens here last so hopefully that serves as the final piece of the puzzle. Miami is a solid comp this week I believe and he should have won that.

Matt Wolff +8000

Obviously volatile but there have been some really nice accuracy performances from him this year alongside the distance with Miami probably being the best examples and a solid comp this week. The putter is a becoming a weapon once again so it’s really a matter of catching a spike week with the driver and at 80/1 here I will take a roll of the dice to see if it pops here.

TEAM: Smash +900

For the heck of it I will make a bet in the Team market because it seems entertaining and who knows maybe the lack of betting in this market opens up some opportunities. Smash already has a win this year and we come to a place where both Gooch and Koepka excelled last year. They both tuned up solidly enough in Adelaide and of the top two combos on the teams this week they are equal to or better than any team ahead of them in the odds considering course history/fit. Kokrak has been driving it nicely and also mixed here last year while McDowell has the ball striking to stay out of trouble come the final round. If they win, I think I have to buy a hat.

Matt’s Selections

Jon Rahm +675

I am betting on the Spaniard at 7-1 one more time this week.

Any golf course where Adam Scott has won three times, Sergio Garcia has won once and Paul Casey and Justin Rose have finished runner up show how important overall ball-striking prowess is. Rahm has been far and away the best LIV Golf competitor in that aspect, and his win is coming.