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LAST UPDATE - TUESDAY 4:30PM

Outright card and Field Notes updated.

Valhalla

Louisville, KY

Weather & Impacts

This forecast looks very much like what the weather was today where it was cloudy all day and rained pretty much the whole time at varying intensities. Based upon this we definitely are going to be increasing distance in importance, but we haven’t yet seen the thickening of the rough as we might have expected. If anything the rough looked even easier today.

As said the biggest impacts are going to be on distance, and likely on putting. Yesterday it felt like anyone with even average distance was in play, I do think now we likely want guys who are at least +3 Distance vs Field Average or better. So still not an extreme distance number but this wet Zoysia is going to eat balls up and limit some of the roll. But still you are going to have to flush irons either way.

I also say putting because these greens have zero bounce to them. Balls are stopping dead and I am shifting a tad (just a tad) of the approach emphasis to the putter. It’s effectively going to be a putting contest among the best long iron players as you aren’t going to be able to win solely with excellence in GIR %.

Due to that I will take an updated stab at the winning stat line which is usually a just for fun guess but I enjoy using it to help profile what I’m seeing:

OTT: +2.8

APP: +6.8

ARG: +1.6

PUTT: +4.7

Those APP and ARG numbers look a lot like Oak Hill with a shift of the OTT to the PUTT and although that wasn’t my thinking when typing that out, it actually makes a lot of sense. The courses have similar approach profiles but much less penal driving conditions and thus a need to make more putts.

I will also say these are very straightforward greens so I could see normally average putters spiking. So still a big focus on iron play but we do think you will need to make more putts than we thought yesterday.

Overall though I don’t really see any significant changes to our thinking about what is important around this place. Just don’t be incompetent with the driver, stripe your long irons, and roll in some putts.

The softness should further emphasize something I wrote about yesterday with it maybe not being a place where you make a huge number of birdies but you also shouldn’t make very many big numbers or bogeys. Someone should be able to just steadily patrol around with 4 or 5 birdies per day and just a bogey or two to end up around -14 which should do the trick. If that was the over/under I’d probably go even lower but I still think they’ll try some insane pins to keep the scoring in check. If they don’t do that it’s going to be low scoring but I trust the PGA set up team to not let it get out of hand. They’ll try their best to keep it single digits but idk how they would.

Adam Field Notes Tuesday

  • Alright, we saw a lot of guys today so just going to fire through them all and what we saw plus any additional thoughts. As always, this should not be the only thing that goes into your decision making process and guys can easily change form in a day. We will continue to find more tomorrow. But, here is what went down today:

    • Scottie - Alright, I would never ever ever ever doubt Scottie. But this was not the razor sharp, super intimidating, Scottie that I have seen many times. It’s also not a venue where his best skill - unreal driving - will give him that big of an advantage. I tip toe into this take, but I am going to put a T4 ceiling on him this week.

    • Xander - As good as ever. Absolutely perfect golf in every way. If he wasn’t 14/1 I would be considering it seriously, but I have my do not bet Xander below 18 rule for a reason so need to stick to it I think.

    • Rahm - Meh. Not bad, not great. Certainly didn’t do enough to get me excited. Iron play was certainly behind Tommy and Shane in terms of quality today.

    • Ludvig - Was not hitting full shots and was simply working on short game. Did not see anything physically concerning but he was only hitting short game shots and obviously not great that he wasn’t taking full swings. Hopefully will see him in action tomorrow.

    • Collin - Always looks like the ultimate professional and definitely fit that today, solid.

    • Niemann - Comically good golfer. A top 3-5 talent in the world without a doubt, just makes it look like a joke really. Just a matter of doing it on the biggest of stages now.

    • Cantlay - Not good. Everything that was good yesterday was back to being very bad today.

    • Hatton - Continues to look like he is destined for a very typical T18 Hatton finish.

    • Hovland - Have still not seen him on the course, only his caddie. Likely deep grind mode on range again which is concerning.

    • Ben An - Hitting it solidly, looked a bit disgruntled playing by himself.

    • Burns - Also playing by himself, and I continue to have never seen him drive it in the fairway at a major in my life. Until I see it, I can’t trust my guy.

    • Spieth - Yet again playing by himself, and needing way too many 2nd and 3rd balls to get dialed in for my liking.

    • Day - Nicest guy on the course by a mile. Didn’t look particularly comfortable with the driver, but looked incredibly comfortable in his Malbon gear which I am now in on for sure.

    • Zal - Worst I have ever seen him look sadly.

    • Finau - Hitting it pretty solidly which is what we’d expect from Big Tone. Could make some noise.

    • Si Woo - I need Si Woo to hit every fairway to believe in him, and I didn’t see him hit a single one.

    • Conners - Flush, flush, flush. Easy game.

    • Lowry - Not as dialed as yesterday, but feels like a course where his floor is very high and even struggling a bit today he looked better than a lot of guys.

    • Russ - Still a nice guy, but wasn’t a nice golfer today.

    • Jaeger - Should win the tournament by 10-15 shots

    • Burmester - I really wanted to see him do something awesome, but he was the only guy who drove it in the water on 18. That said, the second ball was tremendous. Unfortunately only going to get one on Thursday.

    • Noren - Flushers only club. Easy game club. No chance to win club but love him.

    • Pendy - Looked like he is going to keep it rolling. Second best Canadian behind Corey.

    • Nicolai - They may need to bring more grass to the course with how many balls he is hitting this week. I hope he finds something because it’s a good course for him but I’d prefer he was taking it a bit easier.

    • Reed - Seemed fine and his caddy is surprisingly cool but worry about finding enough fairways.

    • Harris - This was not Sawgrass Harris. Irons not dialed.

    • Keegan - It is raining so we love Keegan. He also was being coached on bunker shots like he’s never golfed before, which is concerning.

    • Rickie - Still looking okay but also hit the worst shot of the week with a hosel rocket out of the bunker that nearly ended a child’s life.

    • Gotterup - No one, legit no one, hits the driver like Gotterup. Life changing stuff. Lots of swagger, lots of confidence.

    • Pavon - Looks like he is going to shoot +16 again, but now that I am fully out on him he will probably finish Top 10.

    • EVR - Long iron king, but always a question mark with the driver and those question marks were surfacing today.

    • Eckroat - Didn’t know who it was from a distance and said to Matt it was the most beautiful swing I have ever seen. Then watched more closely and can confirm he is mega dialed. Short game question marks maybe lower the ceiling a touch.

    • Schenk - Not dialed.

    • Dunlap - Serious swagger and serious game. Was keeping up with Xander.

    • Nakajima - Dude is sick at golf and also a nice guy. Would love a breakout performance here and it could be coming.

    • Bob Mac - Looked really solid, worried a bit about the putter but 600/1 is insane.

    • SH Kim - Off the planet, safety hazard.

    • Jordan Smith - A flusher which should do the trick here, but he’s also dead to me so can’t tout him.

    • Vic Perez - Ball striking machine and played good at Oak Hill. So we like it.

    • Tosti - Lovely fellow, off the planet golfer.

    • Svenny - Tough day for our guy.

    • CT Pan - Stripe show with the driver

    • Padraig - Worst player on the course outside the club pros

    • Club Pros - I appreciate the concept for the event, but literally pointless all of them (besides Blockie of course)

  • Will have more tomorrow and then anyone who I have final thoughts on who doesn’t make the card will get some notes as well for DFS purposes. Main guys we want to see tomorrow that we haven’t yet - Bryson, Max, Fitz, Theegs, Vik

Adam Field Notes Weds

  • Nothing really new on the course front, more of the same today. The rough had grown a tad, and there are a couple holes where it seemed a bit more troublesome but across the board pretty much the same. The fairways do actually drain quite well, and the chance of things being super soaked so only bombers have a chance is extremely low at this point. The sun also came back out this afternoon and the fairways looked more like they did on Monday. Greens remained the same level of softness and again nothing significant to report on general plan of attack.

  • Going to now fly through some final thoughts on guys and will highlight in gold the players we got eyes on today. Players who are on the outright card not included.

    • Scottie - A highly agitated range session and a couple of wayward drives on the course keep me believing this won’t be Scottie’s week. Now the floor for him is probably T12 but I am keeping my ceiling of T4 from yesterday.

    • Rory - I am always out on Rory in majors and until he proves me wrong, I am not going to get behind it.

    • Xander - Practice round legend again. Talk to Jerz.

    • Brooks - Dialed. The man to beat for me.

    • Rahm - Driver and woods look good, irons look indifferent. Add in the shaky putter on LIV and I think I am good versus Brooks or Xander.

    • Bryson - Idk. I prefer driver/putter courses for the Big Golfer, and that’s not really this place. Seems overly popular so I think I would be a pass in most markets since I wasn’t able to see any shots to alter my baseline opinion.

    • Max - Nothing of significant note, feels like a spot he will finish T8.

    • Wyndy - A roller coaster of shots from the excellent to the truly and utterly horrible. I never get him right so I am good but the price is fair to take a ride on the roller coaster.

    • Vik - The short game is sickening to watch and he couldn’t hit the fairway either. The long price is deserved and I don’t see him bouncing back in a big way but has the dog to outperform his form.

    • Cantlay - Bad again. Feels like he will have two good rounds and two bad rounds like he has all year.

    • JT - I didn’t like what I saw but Jerz didn’t mind it

    • Ben An - Continues to just grind by himself (hopefully he has some friends but not this week) but his T2G play should have his floor sitting quite high and everything looked solid to me

    • Hatton - On track for his T18 finish

    • Theegala - Surprisingly poor. All over the place and really looking odd with the putter. I think he can right the ship by show time, but it was enough to turn me off.

    • Cam Young - Talk to Jerz.

    • Min Woo - Not a links course at all and only good with his second ball today. Only get one tomorrow.

    • Hideki - Never saw him on the course after Monday. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t playing but it’s a worry. If he shows up healthy it’s a hammer number but never seeing him again kept me away.

    • Spieth - Grinding the irons, but not sure there were any signs it’s getting better.

    • Si Woo - Irons looked really good, and feels like a slightly worse Hatton where he will finish T26

    • DJ - Still completely and utterly broken, grinded all day and went out to the course twice. Not ideal.

  • Alright the rest of these random guys we saw, so here are some quick thoughts on them:

    • Finau - Some good, some bad. Like him on easier bent courses so a reasonable bet IMO.

    • Gooch - Not good. Time to back up the talk and he wasn’t doing it today.

    • Sepp - Seemed solid, only issue is his short game and Chris Kirk was teaching him how to hit bunker shots so hopefully that helps.

    • Conners - Still flushing

    • Akshay - Not looking very dialed playing with Brooks, and not my favorite course for him

    • Pendy - Off the planet, not as confident in him as I was yesterday

    • Reed - Driver issues are real

    • Kurt - Very lost again, needs to right the ship real quick

    • Keegan - Something off about him this week, but maybe the rain will get him squared away

    • Rickie - Kind of sulking around, nothing special at all

    • Knapp - Wasn’t dialed with the irons which is what I would have to see to roll the dice

    • Cam Davis - Not flushing, very painful to report

    • Rodgers - Playing with Tony and was definitely the better of the two, pretty solid

    • TIGER - Looks absolutely jacked and every shot I saw was flushed, I’m down for the Big Cat this week

    • Rai - One shot, one missed fairway. Auto out if Rai misses any fairways

    • Phil - Keeping up with Rahm to some degree, not bad

    • Jordan Smith - Striding with confidence and ball striking it how he normally does

    • Hodges - Told Glover that he’s “doing better now” so not sure what that means but letting you know

    • Glover - Wasn’t afraid to tee it with Tiger, and was flushing the irons per usual

    • Tosti - Shot of the week into 10. Could shoot a round of 62 and 92.

    • Jesper Sven - Looked extremely focused, probably will miss the cut but I liked his vibe a lot

  • Thoughts on building card:

    • I really feel like Scottie is vulnerable this week and Rory is Rory in majors so to me it’s Brooks as the man to beat. For whatever reason I just can’t get there this week though at the price and still think it’s more wide open than the typical extra hard PGA or US Open. So, I am taking some more swings and going to see if one or two can’t get into the mix on Sunday.

    • I didn’t intend to do it but with Ludvig, Tommy, and Collin on the card I have three of the best non-Scottie players from the Masters and I kind of like that. The ball striking profiles are similar enough and we just saw Brooks go 2nd-W at the Masters and PGA last year. If you’re playing good this time of year it can carry over and hopefully one of them pops up again here.

  • Have a great week everyone. I’m sure certain guys will wildly outperform our takes and some will underperform which is why at the end of the day you gotta ride with who you wanna ride with. But feel pretty good about the overall handicap this week, so hopefully things turn out solidly enough. Thanks for the support and enjoy the golf!!

Matt DFS Thoughts

Upper Range

Scottie 13.2 and 12.0 Rory are both nearing 30%. One of the two will finish inside the top 5. My lean is with Rory but there are avenues to fading them both, it can be a risky one though. Some chalk you just have to eat.

Rahm 11.4 looked solid today and will be sub 20% but prefer saving both salary and ownership with 10.9 Xander who has multiple avenues to finish inside the top 5

Shocked that Ludvig 10.5 will be sub 15%. I mean you really cannot build with two guys up here and everyone is going up to the top. Also, people may just be scared of the injury news. Can confirm he was not taking any full swings on Tuesday.

Pat 10.2 and Collin 10.0 are the two lowest owned above 10K. Prefer Collin by far. Far more iron upside and is in much better form. Pat did not look great on Tuesday.

Cam 9.8 at 8% is surely a look. I do not trust his long irons at all but Adam and I both believe putting will play more of a factor than a normal major.

Max 9.7 is coming in more under owned than I believe. I do like him on a long iron track

Bryson 9.6 is the chalkiest man up here and he is a full fade. Distance is not a priority here and there are too many forced layups for him to take full advantage with the driver.

Joaco 9.4 was flushing it on Tuesday and is at fair ownership. I am taking a liking to some LIV names, but will only be playing 1 per lineup. I still believe they will come in higher than expected because people do not get to click these names often.

Sub 10% JT 9.3 on a long iron track + home game? Sign me up… Pressure seems to high to win but I feel like he will either get off to a lightning start to ignite the Ville crowd or backdoor a high finish. Either way, love it for DFS.

Will Z 9.1 is coming in WAY under owned and he did not look great on Tuesday. His betting number is way higher than his DFS price which I believe shows where his game is at. Sadly, I do not think it is Willy Week.

Cam 9.0 is fair ownership with top 5 upside.

Mid Range

8.7 Tommy is double the ownership of Jordan 8.8, Fitz 8.9 , and Hideki 8.6. Adam and I both love Tommy but I would suggest choosing one of the three at half the ownership in DFS terms. Hideki was not taking any full swings which tells me he will probably light the course up at random.

Sub 5% Shane Lowry 8.4 is odd. He is not far removed from an absolute display with the irons and looked solid this week. I am in. 

Hatton 8.2 and Sahith 8.1 are eating up this low 8K chalk. Neither are out of hand and both have similar upside. I prefer Sahith as I feel like he can come close to really breaking through and I believe Hatton will steam in ownership

Sungjae 7.9 finding things on a weekly basis and could be in line for a nice little run after last week at Quail. Sub 7%, Hell yeah!

I figured Ben An 7.8 would be one of the chalkier golfers on the slate. Do not bite it. He is at an absolute peak in terms of his betting odds and form and that is showing in ownership. With putting being emphasized, He can get lapped.

Si Woo 7.7 and Min Woo 7.7 are both some of the chalkier guys here. Si Woo did not look great but should make sense. Min Woo’s only hope is that they tuck the pins so tight and it becomes a scramble fest, but that is unlikely.

Corey 7.6 is almost as high as the guys above and even if he gets that high, safe chalk in my opinion.

Sepp 7.5 is surely trending, but prefer going up to Conners if he is higher owned.

Expecting Nico 7.4 to come in higher than projected after his Augusta showing. He seemed to be grinding and does not look like his swing is where he wants it. His recent ball striking would agree with that.

Scott 7.3, Akshay 7.2, and Jaeger 7.1 all coming in around the same ownership (5-7%). I expect one of the three to top ten and potentially mix early. I will probably play two of three.

6K and Below

6.7 Meronk- Led birded 2023, aggressive high ceiling, good liv

6.6 Bez- extremely safe, will hit fairways and greens

6.6 Mitch- Best form leading into major ever, top 10 driver in frisk 

6.5 Kurt K- Bay Hill! High end driver, great T2G form outside of last week 

6.2 Detry played college at Illinois, high end driver +short game

6.0 Pendy, great form, high end driver, fairways are key 

5.8 Puig, high end LIV guy, endless speed, can get ahead of

5.7 EVR drove it so well last week, great long iron player, has a T10 at Bethpage

5.6 P Rodge. Has been driving it flawlessly. 

5.5 Thorbs- poor mans Noren

5.3 Norms- young stud with an elite skill set, won in Kentucky 

Outright Bets

Adam’s Selections

Ludvig Aberg +2200

It has happened. I was bitten by the Ludvig bug today. The guy absolutely flushes the golf ball, and looked completely healthy to my eye after focusing on short game yesterday. Sounds like he confirmed the health is all good in his presser and his long iron prowess is as impressive as anyone in the game. The model loves everything about his game, and his spike upside with the putter is the best of anyone in this range of the board. He will probably screw me over per usual but short game kept him from winning at Augusta and these are routine short game shots. I can’t believe I am doing this but he was too dialed today to ignore.

Collin Morikawa +3500

Amazingly the only current weakness in Collin’s game is the iron play, not the short game. His short game has reached career best levels and he’s once again automatic OTT. But, this is a unique test of iron play and the story was the exact same coming to Augusta when he showed up and gained +6.4 which made it six of his last seven majors gaining 4+ on approach. The guy just knows how to work his way around these tests and steadily progress on the field with his long iron prowess. Looked solid enough to the eye test today as well and as focused as ever.

Joaco Niemann +4000

Some of my biggest betting regrets are not pulling the trigger on the guy who looked the best all week at majors (Fitz, Wyndy) and Niemann was that guy this week. Didn’t miss a shot on any day and just looked incredibly confident in his game which isn’t normal when I see him in these events. A world class ball striker ready to do it on the biggest stage.

Tommy Fleetwood +5000

Do I feel good that the first bet of the week is Tommy Lad? No. But, at 50/1 with how he was striping it around this place and a run of four Top 5s in his last eight major starts I am happy to hop on at 50/1. There just aren’t many players in the field with that major record of late and this is a course he can play almost entirely carefree. It’s all right in front of him and he’s one of the most complete players in the game. Does he have the dog? Almost certainly not but it’s 50/1 which has that more than baked in IMO.

Stevie Jaegs +15000

Swagger to infinity, and these are the ideal scoring conditions for him. His driving and ARG play should limit bogeys which raises the floor, and his best performances have come on tough ball striking tests at Torrey and in Houston. Didn’t find anyone else in this range appealing so not going to miss out on Jaeger again.

Austin Eckroat +35000

Some of the most impressive iron shots of the week I saw were from Eckroat, and last year’s strong US Open effort confirms he has the game for the biggest stages. Has a win on a tough-ish course at PGA National and is more proven than a ton of the guys below him.

EVR +35000

When I think long irons and the ability to heat up the flatstick I think of EVR. Didn’t really see much from him this week so this is more of a numbers and vibes play, but it just feels like an EVR course. I have bet him at numbers miles below this so why not take a swing at a massive price?

Nick Dunlap +40000

If you lead the PGA Tour in BoB % 200+ and gained 2+ on approach in your first two rounds at Augusta I’m down. Appears to be gaining his footing after a truly unreal path to the PGA Tour and legit looked like he thought he was better than Xander. So sure at 400/1. Future GOAT.

Matt’s Selections

Xander Schauffele +1400

Potentially the last time I take the dip on X for a very long time. To no one's surprise, the man looked absolutely perfect out here this week. There are no stats for me to boast with Xander because they are all flawless but I do love his ability to roll birdie putts, which is a skill. I do believe scoring will be up and you will need to take it low. Xander’s 2024 wrongs and shortcomings will be forgotten with a major title and I believe it happens sooner or later. Outside of Rory, Xander is the live favorite. Scottie truly did not look like himself this week with all that he is going through, which is great for both us and the field.

Tommy Fleetwood +5000

Tommy is not doing to blow you away with win equity or flashiness but he does fit the narrative for this week. We learned that simply long iron green in regulation percentage is extremely important and Tommy will bring that to the table. He is extremely elite in terms of total driving and will have no problem playing from the fairway. Tommy is the king of major back door top 5’s as he had five top 5’s in his last 8 majors. At 50/1, I'll take my chances with this profile. 

Justin Thomas +5500

I thought JT would come in far more owned with the home game narrative. He did not look A1 out there this week but we know he is a PGA Killer and a long iron killer. The putter is truly a question mark but I am banking on the Louisville surfaces to channel his youth and instinct. At the end of the day, you are hitting a ton of long irons this week and there are not many players I would prefer over JT when it comes to that.

Cam Young +5500

Young continues to play solid golf in 2024, Young continues to play well in majors. He has been so solid both off the tee and on approach. The driving is so easy this week that I expect him to hit a very high rate of fairways which will lead him to having a ton of mid irons with his length. He is a birdie maker and not scared to mix. He may be a little scared to actually win but I love CY in majors, especially at this number for how solid he has been playing. 

Corey Conners +11000

Over the last few years, Conners has been exceptional in PGA’s. He was a swing away from being one of the 54 hole leaders last year and was the first round leader at Kiawah. Conners plays flawless golf from tee to green but he is a true liability with the putter. This man has gained strokes ball striking in every single start since August and is coming off of his best ball striking week in this run. I will take a 110/1 golfer who has 15 feet for birdie on nearly every hole. Hopefully he can find something with the putter.

Stephan Jaeger +15000

Jaeger is the only golfer to beat Scottie Scheffler since February 18th. It has been nearly 3 full months since then and it still remains true. Jaeger fits the profile of a first time winner to break out and win a major that same year. He has more swagger and confidence than anyone and knows he has the game. The driver is elite and the putter is streaky. I do worry about the long irons but there are always questions for a golfer at these odds. He won on a big boy golf course with a ton of long irons and they also have the ability to flash. 

Nick Dunlap +40000

Alright. This man won a US Amateur. Was the first Amateur to win a PGA Tour Event since 1985. What's next… grabbing that first major. At 400/1, we would be stupid to not give it a chance. 

Dunlap was oozing with confidence in the practice rounds. This course is as straight forward of a major test as we will get which is right up Dunlap’s alley. He was flushing his driver and irons all week and fits the narrative of a first time major winner.