PGA Preview

Valhalla

Louisville, KY

The Basics

Course: Valhalla

Greens: Bent

Fairways: Zoysia

Rough: Bluegrass 4”

Recent Winners: 2023 Koepka (-9|+2000), 2022 Thomas (-5 | +1600), 2021 Mickelson (-6 | +25000 ), 2020 Morikawa (-13 | +3000)

Alright as things tend to be after the 25,000 step assessment of a major venue, the article is a brain dump that hopefully gets everyone up to speed on what we should expect this week. As always, these keys can evolve throughout the week and obviously will fill in gaps as needed but overall I think we have a pretty straightforward course. And, a less than stellar one at that.

So, let’s start with some high level bullet points before going into the hole by hole breakdown:

  • This is the worst major venue I have been to and it’s not particularly close. The front nine is an abomination and not worthy of a major championship, not even close.

  • The back nine is more aesthetically pleasing but this design overall makes very little sense and is set to ask the exact same question way too often - how many times can you dial in your long irons?

  • Six of the first 14 holes are effectively long par 3s asking you to step up and hit iron shots from 175+. Two of those happen to be Par 4s with runout fairways where every single player will be hitting from the exact same spot. It makes no sense.

  • I have never seen fewer missed fairways in my life. It actually was almost unbelievable. Every guy of every skill set looked as carefree OTT as you’re ever going to see. And the reason for that is these are incredibly wide site lines from the tee. You feel almost no pressure on a solid chunk of the tee shots. There are a handful that ask some questions, but without the risk of serious penalty these guys look super chill out there. It’s the fewest shots from the rough I have ever seen in a practice round by a million miles.

  • The rough is not thick so far. Now not many guys were in it but compared to Oak Hill last year we are talking about a significant difference. It may grow throughout the week but so far rough isn’t much of a factor because it isn’t overly long and no one is driving into it anyway.

  • There is deep rough but it’s way off the fairway. If you hit it in the deep rough you never had a chance this week anyway. The deep rough is mainly for the fans watching the tournament to have to trod through.

  • This property is huge. It’s probably only 40% golf holes and 60% nothing.

  • There are very few places you could make a big number here. There will certainly be plenty of bogeys, but doubles or worse shouldn’t be in play for guys playing even medium levels golf.

  • You can recover from almost any bad situation and advance it up near the green.

  • The toughest part of the course by far is the approach shots into the greens which are surprisingly small. I fully expect them to tuck some very tough pins that you will be approaching with long irons. That will not be straightforward. The key is going to be patience. Just don’t go crazy hunting pins that you aren’t supposed to and you will be fine. There are numerous bail out areas and the chip shots are not hard if you are in the right spot. Overall I love Birdie/Bogey ratio this week because of that. Just don’t get greedy on some tough long iron shots.

  • Did I mention you better be good with your long irons?

  • The greens are smaller than I would have expected. If you hit it anywhere on the green on most holes you will have a birdie look. I think the winner will be see a boatload of putts from 15-25’. I don’t think you can win this event with your putter. I’d expect the winner to gain around 3-4 strokes putting.

  • Par 5s are a bit tricky, and one of the main defenses from the scores going super deep. You can birdie all of them but you have to hit a couple good shots. Advantage ball strikers on the Par 5s not just bomb away players, so that’s actually one of the best things Valhalla has going for it.

  • It is pretty receptive everywhere. You can get the ball running a bit OTT but it may rain tomorrow and take some of that away. The greens are highly receptive so far making it easy to hold long irons and recover with pitch shots. As always, the firmness of the course is something we need to assess every single day as it can change the most but balls were not catching the slopes at all today. There was very little risk.

  • Now all of that being said there still are so many long irons that I wouldn’t expect a huge number of guys to go crazy low. Someone should be able to fire -8 in any round and a handful could reach -13 or better for the week. Don’t hold me to that quite yet but that’s how I feel right now. I think -4 everyday will be ideal for the winner. They won’t make a ton of birdies and they won’t make a ton of bogeys.

  • Visually it reminds me of your classic wide open spaced golf courses - Matt is adamant that every hole reminds him of Caves Valley. Visually it reminded me of TPC River Highlands and Wilmington CC. So the BMW courses probably don’t hurt as a comp, and there is certainly Nicklaus vibes from Muirfield Village. With the focus on the second shot here, in-form guys at Augusta should be excited.

  • There should be a pretty serious bias to 175+ approach shots, which actually is common of recent PGAs. So, success at the PGA should actually comp well here but the scoring will likely be a tad lower than recent renditions. The winner should hit 70% of the greens and do a big chunk of the work on the scoreline with their iron play. Would expect maybe 6-8 gained on approach.

  • I am not seeing some astronomical distance edge here. There is almost no hole where distance is needed to remove trouble from the equation which is normally when distance matters most - ala LACC. Obviously distance helps everywhere but all it does here is turn your 210 yard iron shot into a 180 yard iron shot. You still are going to have to hit great iron shots. I repeat you are going to need to hit great iron shots. I repeat you are going to need to hit great iron shots.

  • You can’t be super short though. I don’t think anyone with average or better distance can be written off this week. This isn’t a pure bomber course by any stretch.

  • Fairway bunkers should be hazards. These fairway bunkers are not. I didn’t really see many people hit it into them but you should be able to hit the green from a significant chunk of them.

  • Also overall the sand is very, very thin. Doesn’t seem like the ball will plug in them. Another missed opportunity to challenge the pros.

  • The back nine is the tougher of the nines and the wind does come into play a bit more. The front nine again, is a crime against major championship golf. They should play the back nine twice.

  • Alright, let’s look at the holes.

Hole by Hole

  1. Dog leg left Par 4. Not much trouble. A short iron to start actually, and a birdie chance for sure.

  2. Long dog leg left Par 4. Easy to hit fairway. Didn’t see a single person miss it. If you hit it in the left hazard, quit the tournament. Tough long iron shot for everyone into a small-ish green. Par will be good.

  3. 190+ Par 3. Not too tough of a green with plenty of bail out. Birdie with a solid iron shot, probably par.

  4. Straight away Par 4. Flip wedge for everyone. Birdie.

  5. Dog leg right Par 4, some pointless bunkers not in play for anyone with above average distance. Short iron. The last one you will hit for a while.

  6. Might as well just let everyone go drop their ball at 200 and hit in. Stupid hole OTT, kind of tough iron approach. Good long iron players can set up birdie, everyone else bails right and will be able to scramble for par.

  7. Split fairway Par 5. Not sure which is the better play but everyone can have a chance in two. Not a guaranteed birdie and the hazard will be in play. Tricky hole but good ball strikers will expect a birdie.

  8. 180+ Par 3. There will be one tricky pin front left, every other pin is accessible if your irons are dialed in. Birdie looks but par is fine.

  9. Uphill straight away Par 4. Again some bunkers simply for the heck of it that provide no real trouble if you find them, but most players will be hitting long irons from the fairway into a somewhat bowl style green. Birdie look for solid long iron players.

  10. Straight away Par 5 but a tricky green which makes it tough to hit in two. Not exactly sure what the right play is here but everyone should have a birdie look, it just won’t be a guaranteed birdie. Similar to 7 but without the risk of water that 7 has.

  11. OH HEY, ANOTHER LONG PAR 3! Same story as 8.

  12. Another hole where the fairway runs out and then there is a just for fun second fairway that no one will ever hit into. They should set up a buffet down there. Tough approach into a tiny green. You’ll take par but again a good long iron shot is a birdie look. Hoge stuffed one here.

  13. What are we doing here? Everyone will hit a short iron to 130 yards and then hit a wedge onto the green but there is a waterfall so I guess we are supposed to just ignore how dumb of a hole it is. If you don’t give yourself four great birdie looks, you are an unserious golfer and have no shot.

  14. ANOTHER LONG PAR 3!! You will once again take your par but long iron savants can dial one in close.

  15. Alright this one actually looks kinda cool, straight away Par 4 with a creek all the way up the right. But it’s long iron or wood OTT and then likely a wedge. Should be a birdie hole unless you really mess up the tee shot.

  16. The next two holes are a bit more serious. You need to step up and hit a good drive here. But no matter what you’re hitting a long iron into one of the bigger greens on the course. Plenty of bailout around the green, keep it on the planet OTT and take your par. Once again a good long iron shot can mean birdie.

  17. This is a major championship golf hole. One of the few on the course. Serious drive needed, serious long iron needed. Par will be a good score down the stretch.

  18. Bombs away. Miles left of the water just don’t flare it right and you should be making birdie.

Alright so let’s break that down by holes requiring…

A short iron - 1, 4, 5, 13, 15 and then the Par 5s if you have to lay up

Long irons or woods - 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18

Great birdie chances - 1, 4, 5, 10, 13, 15, 18

Medium birdie chances - 3, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16

Par expected - 6, 14

Par good score - 2, 12, 17

Real chance for penalties (non-serious golfers not included) - 7, 16, 18

Have to hit Driver - 2, 7, 9, 10, 16, 17, 18

And, as tradition - the list of things that should cause you to black list a golfer if you bet them and they do any of these highly un-serious things:

  • Hitting it in the hazard left of 2

  • Hitting it in the hazard right of 3

  • Miss fairway on 4

  • Miss fairway on 6

  • Miss fairway or green on 13

The Model

Model Weights

Strokes Gained Weights:

SG P (7%)

SG ARG (5%)

SG APP (18%)

SG OTT (11%)

SG TOTAL (9%)

Additional Weights:

DISTANCE (7%)

PROX 200+ (11%)

PROX 175-200 (11%)

BIRDIE / BOGEY (11%)

FAIRWAY BOB % (7%)

PUTT 15-25’ (4%)

Notes

Overall we were focused on how the course was playing and didn’t narrow in on many guys specifically. That will be almost exclusively the focus tomorrow and Wednesday. But quickly here are some players of note:

  • Brooks - Looked like Brooks, but he’d probably prefer a bit more of a challenge from the tee to differentiate himself to the field. Zero overall issues though

  • DJ - Serious serious struggle bus

  • Woodland - Solid enough but didn’t have to watch him putt

  • Cantlay - Solid, fits the course and needs to overcome his form but liked his vibe compared to what I saw at Sawgrass

  • Rickie - Fine not bad

  • Poston - Nothing really of note, fine

  • Henley - Missed a fairway which can’t happen if you’re Russ Henley at this course, but was nice to Matt and I, so go Russ

  • Cam Smith - Looked very uncomfy with the long irons

  • Hatton - Looked good, also seemed pissed about it so standard Hatton

  • Cam Davis - Flush, flush, flush

  • Lowry - Best player on the course that I saw today, but didn’t have to see him putt

  • Olesen - Not half bad alongside Lowry

  • Clark - Didn’t see much, was grinding for a solid three hours on the range but hit a couple nice shots on the course

  • Knapp - Looked good, seems like it makes sense for him with the lack of penalty OTT

  • Fox - Sadly, not good

  • Hideki - Was not hitting full shots, obviously a big concern but it’s also Hideki so who knows, will monitor. Before realizing he wasn’t hitting full shots I told Matt he was going to win FWIW.

  • Ryo - Tough track for our guy, struggle bus

  • Overall not a ton of guys were practicing on course today, which probably adds even more fuel to the fire that this is an unserious golf course and guys aren’t overly worried about figuring out any tricks. They know they need to stripe long irons and can dial those on the range. Will be targeting all the big names to fill out these notes next couple of days as they hopefully hit the course more.

Matt’s Field Preview (written before Boots)

Ludvig Aberg

Ludvig WD from Wells Fargo but stated he just needed an extra week of rest and should be good to go. The Young buck will play well and will be a VERY popular pick after lightning it up in his first major. Big golf course that Lud will have a leg up on with the driver. 

Byeung Hun An

Benny has been super consistent this year and is surely in line for his best major season of his career. The ball striking has been so solid and so consistent. He is yet to crack the T20 at a PGA Championship but he surely can this season. 

Brooks Koepka

Rounding into form and looking to defend in a major yet again in his career. He will be a very popular pick after winning his last start on LIV and it makes sense. No one will ever steer you away from betting Brooks in a major. He sounds confident which is more important than a lot of things. 

Tiger Woods

Less elevation than Augusta will be good for Tiger. I can see him making the cut this week as he is prepping heavily for the event. He did not hit the ball well in his recent start at Augusta which is surely a concern but has won on this course before. He will not win this week but again, I can see him playing the weekend. 

Scottie Scheffler

Scottie is surely on baby watch and has taken a few weeks off but is going for another win. Sure, maybe he will be 5% more rusty than he has been of late but is the right favorite and has every making to be in the mix yet again. 

Xander Schauffele

Another great week at Quail for the most consistent player on tour this year outside of Scottie. Oddly enough, Xander has never cracked the top 10 at a PGA Championship. Honestly, I can see that happening this week coming off the great week at Quail.

Min Woo Lee

Min Woo has the driver and scrambling ability to vault to the top in the hardest of conditions. If the conditions become so hard where many guys are missing greens, Min Woo will have an advantage. 

Luke List

List has made his last three PGA Championship cuts which make sense. He is a high end ball striker who performs well in long and difficult conditions.

Shane Lowry

Ugly week for Shane at Quail but he is not too far removed from the elite iron stretch he was on. The driving distance can be an issue but he should fare well if he focuses on position and relies on his long irons and short game. 

Bob MacIntyre

Showed great signs in Myrtle Beach. Difficult conditions suit him well. I do prefer the next two majors for him rather than here though. 

Jon Rahm

Disappointed in his defense at Augusta but has been playing uber consistent on LIV. I worry that he has not played “under the gun” in a very long time. Truly, I am not sure I trust Rahm if he is in contention on Sunday simply because he does not have the reps in such a long time.

Cam Davis

You know my thoughts on Cam D, All time talent and we called that performance at The Masters. I do believe the next major spot for him is Pinehurst rather than here. 

Hideki Matsuyama

WD last week was surely a shock. Hopefully this keeps him under the radar. He has the ceiling to pop anywhere and is playing very well at the moment. He has never missed a cut at a PGA Championship and has multiple T5’s. 

Jason Day

Day has been hitting the ball extremely poorly in 2024 and does not look like the golfer he was this time last year. His recent PGA Championships have not been great. 

Thomas Detry

Give me a 300/1 on Detry. This man played his college golf in this area of the country and is a top 20 talent in the world. He is having a solid year of golf and brings a very high end driver to this event.

Nick Dunlap

Dunlap showed good signs at Quail Hollow and has a ceiling that is nowhere near all the way tapped into. He will only get better by the month and he is surely a good player to get ahead of in DFS or positional markets. Eventually, he’ll have a really nice showing in a major.

Austin Eckroat

I do not believe Eckroat has the distance to make any real noise in this event. 

Tony Finau

Tone is under consideration for the most unserious golfer of the season. Putting together a great ball striking showing but has 0 things to show for it. He is untrustable right now. 

Matt Fitzpatrick 

Major Champion Matt Fitz is not having the best season. His irons have been a problem which is surely a concern. This feels like a very similar style of golf needed to win like we saw in his win at Brookline but I cannot trust Fitz at the moment.

Taylor Pendrith

Why Pendy was 3% owned last week was absurd. A bomber in great form. If he hits fairways, he can get through this cut and pay you off over the weekend. 

David Puig

High ceiling young LIV player from Sapin. Has a ton of speed and is a high risk, high reward golfer to take a shot on in pools or DFS lineups. 

Will Zalatoris

Willy Z feels very close to popping again. He is playing solid golf but has not really popped outside of Riviera and Bay Hill. The tough test is his best game and this can surely be a spot where will makes noise. 

Talor Gooch

The greatest iron player of the last 25 years (according to Greg Norman) gets the nod to play this week. It's a shame he is such a loser because he really is a great player. Sadly, his driver will give him fits around Valhalla. He is not the longest and dials back a ton. It is doable, but he will hit longer irons than most.

Cam Smith

Do not trust Cam Smith to stay out of trouble. He has truly been an unserious ball striker the last few months of golf. He played well at Hong Kong and posted a great result at Augusta but The Masters was truly one of the greatest short game weeks of his career. 

Dustin Johnson

DJ posted his first T10 on LIV since his win in February. He mentioned after his Masters that it was the “Best 13 over he's ever shot.” Kind of a crazy quote but he played well after so he seems to be trending in the right direction. At his best, he can surely T10 or contend here, I can see DJ being the LIV golf to move the needle.

Justin Thomas

The Louisville narrative will be flowing this week. Hometown boy will have a ton of media to deal with which is not great for him. He has so many question marks in his game but also has a massive ceiling. Thomas will go on great 5 hole runs and awful 5 hole runs. The majors have not been nice to him recently. 

Alejandro Tosti

If Tosti can find fairways, he can make this cut.

Erik Van Rooyen

Drove the ball so well in Myrtle Beach and is an excellent long iron player. He does have a top ten at a PGA in his career. 

Bryson DeChambeau

Bryson is going to be extremely chalky and has absolutely no chance here. I am a Bryson supporter and would love to see him win another Major but this is not the place. Augusta is truly a perfect course for him in terms of tee to green play while Valhalla will be much narrower and more demanding for Bryson’s game. Don’t eat the chalk. 


Cam Young

Obviously, Young drove the ball tremendously last week and it will be a major advantage this week. He has been solid in majors and he was again at The Masters. Young will break through, if it is Valhalla, I would not be surprised.

Beau Hossler

Hossler looked solid in Myrtle Beach, which he should have. At his best, he is a solid driver-putter but is not cut out for golf in these conditions. 

Justin Rose

In awful form and in no condition to make noise on a golf course of this stature at this point in his career. 

Sahith Theegala

I love Sahith to have his best major performance this week and truthfully find the mix. He is too good of a golfer and becoming so consistent this season. He has the driver to content here, can flash with the irons, and has a beautiful short game. 

Adam Scott

Scott has the driver to find success here. He also has flashed very well with the irons this seasons. He finished T15 here in 2014 and I would not be shocked at all if he matches that this season. 

Sebastian Soderberg

The new most gutless man on the DP World Tour. Has finished T3 or better in his last three starts, the man has elite ball striking prowess but negative guts. 

Viktor Hovland

I tried to get cute and run with Hovland last week and it did not go well. He came out strong which he did at Augusta as well. I remember when people were running to bet him at 16/1 which was hilarious then and is still now. Don’t bet futures, especially this low. I can see Vik getting off to a hot start on a golf course that sets up for him well (when he is playing well). Outside of that, he is clearly in a funk.

Keith Mitchell

Best form Keith has ever brought to a major. He has been so solid this year, I can see him posting one really solid round and turning some heads. Absolute driving machine and has found something with the irons. 

Adrian Meronk

Meronk led the 2023 PGA Championship in birdies. He is an extremely aggressive player and has recently shown some solid signs on LIV. High ceiling player.

Sungjae Im

Sungjae played alright at Quail Hollow. The iron play which is his bread and butter is still giving him fits which he will need to fix. The driver treated him well which will be important here. He is yet to crack the top ten in a PGA Championship.

Max Homa

Max mentioned that he has not peaked yet and is looking better week by week. He is going to be an extremely trendy pick this week which I understand. Not sure I want to be a part of chasing a golfer at an extremely inflated number when he has truly contended in a major just once. 

Rory McIlroy

Peak Rory fits the bill for what you need to do to contend at Valhalla. He looks confident but I do not trust the game over 72 holes at the moment. I am a Rory apologist and hope he finds a way this year, I will wait until Pinehurst or Troon.

Tyrell Hatton

Hatton has played so much golf between 2nd and top 20 on LIV this season and I can see him doing the same. He has finished T15 or better in his last two PGA Championships.

Stephan Jaeger

This is a great spot for Jaeger to post his best major result. He is a high end driver and can flash with the irons. Jaeger is confident, I am happy with his week at Quail after the poor start.

Taylor Moore

Another great week, drove it alright and has been driving it so well. He is a golfer who is solid in every category but not amazing in one. That is a great recipe for making the cut in a major. 

Collin Morikawa 

Collin will be trendy this week but I believe his lack of distance will hurt him. He has been playing well without hitting his irons well and finally hit them well at Quail. I will be fading the driver here. 

Joaquin Niemann

He was very chalky at Augusta and did not pan out. Niemann is extremely talented but yet to figure it out in majors in his career. 

Si Woo Kim

Another solid iron week for Si Woo. He should play out of the fairway at a high rate and brings a very high end tee to green game to the table. Si Woo has the same win equity at 100/1 than he does at 20/1 and he is trending as well as he ever has heading into a major. 

Matthieu Pavon

Disappointed last week at Quail. He sure has the ceiling to top 20 in this field which can make you money in DFS or placement. I do worry that his driver has been really bad after his Masters week.

Alex Noren

Grinder who will play solid for four days. Has all the back door T15 potential. Can gain strokes in all categories. 

Chris Kirk

This course is far too big for Kirk’s game.

Kurt Kitayama

I expected more from Kurt last week but he is still in the middle of a great ball striking run. This is another golf course I can see Kurt playing well on. If I liked him last week, it is worth giving him another run.

Jake Knapp

Knapp finally posted a really bad iron week after the great run. I do not at all trust his driver on a golf course like this. A few missed shots can lead to double in a heart beat.

Tom Kim

He is yet to make a cut in a PGA Championship and is currently putting on an awful ball striking display. Combine that with it being a massive golf course and I can see him struggling yet again.

Brian Harman

No where near in solid enough form to win nor contend in another major at the moment.

Rickie Fowler

Yet again, the driver ruined Rickies week. He continues to show signs with the irons and this is another place he had success at back in the day. I believe Rickie is close and just needs to find a swing thought off the tee. 

Ryan Fox

Foxxy has been bad of late but brings a very aggressive and high ceiling driver to the table. He can be a first round leader guy for sure. 

Emiliano Grillo

He has been playing very poorly since he took all the time off between The Players and The Masters. 

Tommy Fleetwood

Disappointing week in Charlotte. He has a well rounded game to get through the cut, feels like another non competitive top 10 this week

Jordan Spieth

I mentioned Jordan Spieth was a great DFS / Bounceback play last week at 5% ownership because the only thing he's done well in this awful run was hit the driver well. He did in fact hit it well at Quail and it got rewarded. Jordan missed this cut 10 years ago here which is all but meaningless. If he can drive it like he has been, Jordan can find some magic. 

Nicolai Hojgaard

High ceiling young talent who showed what he is made of at Augusta. I do worry, his last month of ball striking has been no where up to his standards. Nicolai can win a major, but I do not think this is the week he finds it. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Bez has only made 1 cut at the 4 PGA’s he's played. He is having a consistent season and I always like his DFS ceiling as he is a golfer who avoids trouble and makes a ton of pars.

Akshay Bhatia

If there is a young man with high end ball striking to make their first statement in a major, Bhatia is that guy. He did not play well at Quail Hollow which we thought suit his game but I am buying his high end talent at lower ownership on a golf course where you need to flash with the ball striking. 

Keegan Bradley

Keegan has been hitting his irons very well this season but has not been driving it well. Keegan has been so solid in PGA Championships, making 11 cuts in 13 trips. He is always solid on tougher tracks. Could be a solid DFS play. 

Dean Burmester

An absolute problem off the tee which can lead Dean to success. He has not been great in majors in his career but is in the middle of a solid LIV season. 

Sam Burns

Burns has simply never performed well on a big boy track / major conditions.

Patrick Cantlay

Extremely disappointing week from Cantlay in Charlotte. His number drifted at Augusta, I wonder if it will here. Cantlay has not been great in majors in his career, he has two top tens in 7 PGA Championships. 

Wyndham Clark

Not a great defense effort and not a good play at inflated odds. All of his contention efforts have came 30/1 or longer. He can make some noise at Valhalla with his driver but will need a solid effort to keep it out of the high grass and trouble. The fairway finder will be on repeat for Clark this week.

Corey Conners

Safe tee to green golfer who will not get himself into trouble much. Played very well at last year's PGA Championship, was the first round leader at the PGA at Kiawah.