2023 WM Phoenix Open Preview
16 at TPC Scottsdale
The Basics
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Designers: Weiskopf
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71 (4 Par 3s, 11 Par 4s, 3 Par 5s)
Greens: Poa / Rye Overseed
Recent Winners: 2022 Scheffler (-16 | +2500), 2021 Koepka (-19 | +4000), 2020 Simpson (-17 | +1400), 2019 Fowler (-17 | +2000), 2018 Woodland (-18 | +5000), 2017 Matsuyama (-17 | +1000)
Key Stat: Every winner since 2014 has arrived positive off the tee, on approach, and putting over their previous 25 rounds.
TPC Scottsdale
The PGA Tour calendar features four majors, a “fifth major” and here at TPC Scottsdale, the “People’s major”. And, surprisingly enough this spectacle actually has plenty of threads that tie in with the more buttoned up majors of which it shares a moniker.
Since the 2014 redesign, seven of the eight winners also now have major championships in the trophy case and the lone player without one (Fowler) has a Players Championship.
Two of those Phoenix Open titles belong to Brooks Koepka who for most of his career - the last nine months not withstanding - claimed to only care about major championships. His wins here certainly a sign that the revelry at TPC Scottsdale draws out the best from the game’s most capable performers under the bright lights.
But, we look to draw from data not narrative here and for all the possible takes that could be fired off around the mental test at TPC Scottsdale the numbers point more clearly to why we see such crossover success with the majors.
No winner of this event in the strokes gained era has arrived losing strokes OTT in their last 25 rounds.
And, no one since the 2014 redesign has arrived losing strokes on approach or putting.
Narrowing down the list of contenders in a major is usually quite straightforward due to extreme ball striking requirements, and the same can be said here. Winners since 2015 have arrived here averaging a stroke per round ball striking over their previous 25 rounds, and no one has come in averaging less than +0.7 strokes ball striking over that round range.
If we combine that with the threshold of a positive putter over the previous 25 rounds we have a list of just 16 golfers - Bradley, Harman, Lowry, Hatton, Buckley, KH, Hovland, Homa, Day, Cantlay, Im, Hoge, Xander, Rahm, Finau, and Rory.
But, wait there’s more.
The funnel sifts even further as we look at the value of course history at TPC Scottsdale. Across all finishing positions it’s the third most correlated course history on Tour, and isolating just the winners here the trend becomes quite clear. Here’s the winners over the last decade and their best previous finish in the event -
2022 Scheffler - T7
2021 Koepka - W
2020 Simpson - 2nd
2019 Fowler - 2nd
2018 Woodland - 5th
2017 Matsuyama - W
2016 Matsuyama - T2
2015 Koepka - Debut
2014 Stadler - T11
2013 Mickelson - W
The lone player to claim the title without a previous top finish? A player that would prove to be a generational talent on the game’s biggest stages - Brooks Koepka.
Adding this course history angle to our previous list of 16 golfers yields only eight who also have a Top 10 finish at this event - Lowry, KH, Homa, Cantlay, Im, Xander, Rahm, and Finau.
The pickings seem quite slim and of course some of you out there are pounding your fist on the table screaming that these things can change.
They absolutely can. And at some point the trends break. Maybe they will this year. But, it’s hard enough to pick who is going to win a golf tournament. It’s even harder to predict how extended trends are going to break and in whose favor they will break when they do. Due to that we try our best to stick to the guidance as best we can on a weekly basis.
Building our Model
Normally the approach distributions are nestled with the rest of the charts but I wanted to have them stand alone this week as it highlights an important shift at TPC Scottsdale in recent years. Recent renditions of the event have seen firmer and faster conditions play a critical role in the championship. We will need to pay attention to player interviews this week for additional insight but the weather has been conducive to the baked out TPC Scottsdale we’ve seen the last couple years. I’d expect that trend to continue in this elevated version of the event.
The effect of the move to a firmer playing surface has been a gradual shift of the approach buckets from a test of mid iron ability to one with greater emphasis on wedge play. Firm conditions obviously create more roll and since 2016 average driving distance at the event is over 20 yards longer.
Here is the comparison of approach distributions from 2015-2019 vs 2020-22:
Now obviously we have spoken to this point about the strokes gained trends of winners here and due to that we want to avoid mixing in too much noise in the model. But we also see strong correlations among winners here in a few key areas. Let’s take a look at what we are pulling into the model to augment the strokes gained data.
ShotLink Weights:
Par 5 Birdie or Better % (12%)
TPC Scottsdale isn’t the birdie fest style of play common in the desert, and scoring opportunities aren’t prevalent on every single hole like they are at the AmEx or Shriners. The three Par 5s serve as true scoring chances at the venue however, and the last six winners have all been Top 40 on Tour in this category leading into their wins.
Proximity 125-150 Yards (12%)
The last six winners here have all been Top 30 on Tour in this proximity range, and recent years have seen more and more shots coming from these short iron/wedge ranges as firmer conditions yield ever longer driving distances.
Birdie Bogey Ratio (10%)
Anytime we get scoring in the mid to high teens it’s a time to turn to Birdie/Bogey Ratio instead of something like Birdie or Better %. TPC Scottsdale has bite in certain spots, and a balanced attack has been the calling card for champions here.
Green in Regulation % 175-200 Yards (8%)
Even with an increased value on short iron and wedge play in recent years there are still a number of longer iron shots into firm greens required here. We’ll look to GIR % in lieu of proximity as we’re not as concerned with generating scoring chances from these ranges, but rather just finding the putting surface and moving along to better scoring opportunities which are covered in some of the higher weighted stats.
Strokes Gained Weights:
PUTT (12%), ARG (4%), APP (18%), OTT (14%)
We’ve covered the importance of having above Tour average skills off the tee, on approach, and with the putter to win here. These weights align with that and give the slight edge to approach play which has been the best strokes gained category over the last 25 rounds for the previous five champions.
Model Results & Some Notes
Follow this link to find the WM Phoenix Open model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.
Rory
A 3rd time as PGA Tour model #1 since last summer. He has a 5th and a win in his previous two appearances as model #1. And, just won as model #1 on the DP Tour in Dubai.
Finau
Rahm
Xander
Worth keeping tabs on any quotes from Xander this week, but appears to be over the injury that plagued him at Sentry with T3, T13 finishes since then.
Cantlay
Scheffler
Seems like every week we type the words - if he gains anything on the greens he likely wins. Few places he’s putted better in his career than here as he looks to defend his title.
Morikawa
Rinse and repeat the above for Morikawa but much less to be optimistic about on the greens here for Collin who was miserable on these lightning quick surfaces in his lone previous start in Scottsdale.
Im
A literal fixture in the Top 10 of the model but seemingly never wins. It has to change at some point and the desert has been friendly to Sungjae in recent years.
Tom Kim
We haven’t seen much of Tom Kim in firm and fast conditions, so worthwhile keeping tabs on the strokes gained figures for future weeks but a tough ask to beat this field on debut.
Homa
He’s dead set on becoming the best player in the world, and no better chance to stake his claim than right now in the midst of a run that reads T5, W, T20, T23, 17, T3, W.
Conners
This is a note for both Conners and Hoge. I can’t think of anything more annoying than either of these two winning at long odds after disappointing week after week after week at much lower odds.
Hoge
See the above.
Fitzpatrick
Keep an eye out for any quotes from Fitzy who fought through a neck injury last week, and didn’t play well at all. However, if he’s healthy this is a venue his elite driving and putting should pay real dividends at a discounted price. T10 on debut last year.
Young
Returns from Saudi Arabia with another near miss in his pocket. Should destroy this place from the tee.
KH Lee
Lowry
Noren
Matsuyama
Showed real signs of life at Torrey with his name near the top of the board making the turn on Sunday, and his two wins here speak to the affinity for the venue. Still not sure he’s driving it well enough to repeat those results this week but certainly seems healthier.
Thomas
JT has a chorus of supporters who come out of the woodwork anytime his odds have drifted. I’d argue his current odds are a fair reflection of lackluster play as of late but they are right in the fact he can pop off a win at any moment. Not for me, but I’ve missed his wins in somewhat similar situations before.
Hadwin
Hadwin has his spots and this is one of them. Seven consecutive made cuts at TPC Scottsdale.
Henley
Not too far removed from the Scheffler and Collin notes about a true chance to win if he makes putts, and he’s actually putted marvelously here throughout his career, gaining strokes in nine of ten starts.
Poston
Si Woo
Harman
Day
Spieth
Burns
I’m not betting Burns but I will note that we use to auto-bet him above 20/1 and now he’s in the 50s. There’s not enough fit or history here for me to jump back on board, but we’re continuing to monitor the situation.
NeSmith
Fowler
Wise
See the Conners notes and apply it here as well.
Outright Betting Card
Just like the majors, the WM Phoenix Open has been the bastion of lower priced winners with 50/1 being the longest closing odds of a winner here since the redesign. All of the trends we’ve described up to this point are available to anyone, and it’s quite easy to filter down the field to those capable of delivering the ball striking skill set to contend here over four rounds.
But, we are a few bounces of the ball away from the hopes of long-shots looking a bit brighter here. Last year, Sahith Theegala stood on the doorstep at 200/1 and Chez Reavie lost in a playoff at 80/1 in 2018. Add in the fact that there is much better ball striking depth in this field than ever before and there are certainly live long-shots a bit further down the board.
With that being said, it would be foolish not to make up the bulk of your allocation this week to players at or near the top of the board. We’ve largely built a similar card to the one we had at Farmers which shares a lot of characteristics to the ball striking requirements and historic odds in this event. That worked out well with Steele in the mix at long odds for much of the week, and Max Homa ultimately cashing the winner for us at 26/1. Here’s to hoping for a similarly successful outcome here.
I’ll also note how nice it is to be able to put together a card without factoring in the weather much after it was such a factor the last two weeks. Conditions look benign for most of the week, and the canvas should be blank for someone to put together a winning picture over 72 holes.
Let’s take a look at this week’s squad:
Patrick Cantlay 21/1
It doesn’t get much simpler than Patrick Cantlay in the 20s. Like buying a blue chip stock it may not payoff this week but I like our chances to profit on Cantlay at this price long term if we hit it every time we get the chance. Six wins in his last 36 non-major starts tells you everything you need to know about his prolific nature, and that stretch also includes five runner up finishes. One of which was a playoff loss here last year on his event debut.
He leads the field in Par 5 BoB % and Birdie to Bogey Ratio while continuing to possess one of the game’s elite driving and putting combinations. Have to think this price is the result of a T26 at the AmEx where he normally contends but it was just one bad day with the putter that dropped him from the torrid birdie pace there.
Tony Finau 25/1
As of this writing the best number on Finau is 20/1 and I have no issues with that. I’d be game down to 16/1 at least. He’s statistically been the clear 3rd best player on Tour for an extended period now, and his three wins in his last 11 starts have been the result of ridiculously steady play across the bag. Over the last 50 rounds in this field he ranks 7th OTT, 5th APP, and 8th in Putting.
The only reason Finau isn’t closer to the favorites is a confounding record in this event that features a playoff loss but also five missed cuts. It’s important to note however that four of those MCs were prior to the playoff loss, and just the one was last year. But more importantly we have to recognize the drastic improvements in driving accuracy and putting that he’s made over the last year which will have outsized impacts at this venue.
Historically Finau has been wayward from the tee and a poor putter. That isn’t going to work at TPC Scottsdale. But, for example, the new and improved Finau has been above field average in driving accuracy in 14 of his last 21 starts. That’s a material difference for a player that was above field average in accuracy just 15 times in total from 2016-2018 when he missed three cuts here.
I’m optimistic we’re not talking about the same player that we were in some of his poor results in this event.
Jason Day 75/1
Speaking of new and improved, Jason Day comes in this week as a Top 10 player on the planet in strokes gained total over a 25 round period for the first time since 2019. Gaining across the bag, Day has delivered an extended string of excellent results with six Top 21 finishes in his last seven starts.
The 2023 version of Day looks much different to that of World #1 Jason Day as he’s become increasingly accurate from the tee. He lit up Torrey a couple of weeks ago with precision driving gaining +1.4 strokes per round OTT on the difficult South course, and he’s gained impressively with the putter in consecutive starts. All the pieces are back in place for a serious contending effort in the major-esque conditions he’s always relished.
Shane Lowry 80/1
If there are questions being asked of player’s ball striking capabilities then I want Shane Lowry on the card. The man for the big occasion has seemingly only bagged significant titles in his career, which makes sense as his world class tee to green game elevates him up the leaderboard on golf’s more stern venues.
Just two weeks ago he was in the final group on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, but struggled in that final round and the following week in Dubai. That was likely the culprit of some caddy relationship issues as Lowry has since sacked his looper.
Lowry has been 30-50/1 in events like this for the better part of 18 months and I don’t think he’s just forgotten how to play golf in three rounds. I’ll roll the dice that some new perspective on the bag has the Irishman back to the form that beat Rahm and Rory at Wentworth just a couple of months ago.
Has a T6 and T16 in three starts in Scottsdale.
KH Lee 110/1
The last time this many big names got together was at the CJ Cup where KH shared the final group alongside Rory before finishing 3rd. And now we come to the venue which gave KH the nickname TPC Lee with a T2 here in 2021. Since then he’s won twice at TPC Craig Ranch and a T7 at Kapalua in January further points to the affinity he has for open sight lines from the tee. 5th on Tour in GIR% on the season, and carries the win equity you need to pull the trigger in the triple digits this week.
JT Poston 130/1
Poston keeps moving from strength to strength after picking up a 2nd Tour title at the John Deere last summer. In his last four events he’s 62 under par and has done it with his normally excellent putter being relatively cold. He now comes to TPC Scottsdale where he’s finished T11, T23 the last two years and has gained over a stroke per round putting in three of four starts. If he finds his stroke again on these familiar surfaces, there’s enough T2G talent on display of late for Posty to pull off a shocking result.
As always, best of luck!
