2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Spyglass Hill
The Basics
Courses: Pebble Beach | Spyglass Hill | MPCC (Shore)
Designers: Neville/Grant | RTJ Sr | Baldock/Strantz
Yardages: 7051 | 7041 | 6957
Pars: 72 | 72| 71
Greens: Poa
Recent Winners: 2022 Hoge (-19 | +6000), 2021 Berger (-18 | +1400), 2020 Taylor (-19 | +12500), 2019 Mickelson (-19 | +2500), 2018 Potter Jr (-17 | +50000), 2017 Spieth (-19 | +800)
Key Stat: Every winner since 2009 has a previous Top 20 finish at Pebble Beach.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am
When prognosticating golf tournaments we of course want to seem confident, but the reality is you can’t be equally confident every week of the year. Some weeks are more obvious than others, such is the nature of the beast. So I’ll tell you right now that my confidence level in handicapping the three course, wind impacted, poa putting effected, pro-am distracted, golf about to take place on the Monterey Peninsula is rather low.
However, rarely are we given such a powerful dose of course history to guide us. And, due to that the story this week starts and ends there.
Here are the winners over the last decade. On the left is their best finish at Pebble at any point before their win, and on the right is their finish at Pebble the year before their win:
2022: Hoge 12th | 12th
2021: Berger 5th | 5th
2020: N Taylor 10th | 28th
2019: Mickelson 1st | 2nd
2018: Potter Jr 16th | Cut
2017: Spieth 4th | 21st
2016: V Taylor 10th | 10th
2015: Snedeker 1st | Cut
2014: Walker 3rd | 3rd
2013: Snedeker 8th | Cut
That’s every winner in the last decade with a finish of 16th or better. Four of them posted their best Pebble finish the year before, and two were previous champions. It’s simply as strong of a correlation as you’re going to see on Tour.
Obviously these things can change.
There’s more young talent on the Tour than ever before, and some of the Pebble regulars are either sitting this un-elevated event out or have moved to LIV. But, we always want the quantitative thread to tie in with the qualitative and this one makes sense.
With such a unique tournament format the power of experience is acute.
You must be able to handle six hour rounds alongside celebs. You must be able to miss in the proper spots around small greens. You must be comfortable on seaside poa. And you must be proficient in coastal winds.
All of it adds up to a recipe where it’s difficult to simply show up and thrive.
With that, if your game plan this week is to just bet guys who have excelled here in the past I can’t fault you one bit. History says you’re more likely to find a winner that way than any other strategy.
But I will admit that’s difficult for someone like me who always wants a player’s full stat profile to tell the story. So, our mission this week is to give course history the value it rightly deserves while also augmenting it with additional data points that can paint the fullest possible picture of a rather murky situation.
Let’s expand on that below.
Building our Model
We’re going to write a standalone post soon on the different elements of making models, but the three charts above are what drive them. What do we know about the stats that correlate with success broadly, what do we know about approach buckets, and what do we know about how previous winners got to the finish line?
When all of those data points line up we’re golden. When those data points don’t really line up we’re guessing. At Pebble we get the unfortunate situation of having ShotLink data for just one of the three venues that is played and a bit of a mixed story between the winner profiles and the Top 20 profiles.
But, we do our best with the information we have.
This week with course history serving as such a solid guide, it’s about figuring out what tools we have for narrowing down the list of players with strong course history.
We’ve had winners at Pebble that couldn’t putt when they showed up, we’ve had winners that weren’t dialed on approach when they showed up, and we’ve had winners that were below average from the tee when they arrived.
But, no winner since 2008 has come to Pebble negative ARG over their previous 25 rounds. Small greens and wind require an ability to get the ball up and down consistently.
And, with all three courses playing considerably below Tour average in distance we see many more wedge shots. The Pebble approach distribution show this clear as day.
That wedge play correlation also appears strong in the Correlation Matrix, and every winner since 2012 was above Tour average in Birdie or Better % <125 yards.
Our story for success at Pebble is coming together: elite wedge play, sharp around the green performance, and as discussed earlier, previous success at Pebble.
A closer look at the numbers provides us an additional piece of intel about Pebble success - winners have shown a previous affinity for the Poa surfaces at Pebble which have been described as “uniquely Californian”.
Since 2012 every winner had gained at least a stroke per round putting at Pebble in a previous start. The underlying data point driving the course history correlation comes on the greens which is a useful double click into the course history angle.
Now, all of this becomes a bit challenging to model both in finding the right data set and avoiding the ills of small sample sizes. So we’ve created a model of core skills we think matter this week with the stats we have available, and will factor in all of the elements we’ve described so far when we make our final selections.
Basically, we’re not blindly following the model this week as we know there are additional elements we need to dig in to once the model narrows down our target list.
ShotLink Weights
Birdie or Better % <125 Yards (18%)
Birdie or Better Conversion % (14%)
Driving Accuracy (8%)
Par 5 Birdie or Better % (6%)
Strokes Gained Weights
PUTT (8%), ARG (10%), APP (16%), OTT (10%)
Course History (10%)
Model Results & Notes
Follow this link to find the AT&T Pebble Peach Pro-Am model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.
This week the notes in parentheses are a player’s best Pebble finish and best previous putting performance at Pebble. Read the above for context on why we think those are the crucial notes this week.
Hovland (T12; - .59)
Todd (T9; + 2.14)
Hoge (1st; + 1.52)
Fitzpatrick (T6; + 1.23)
McNealy (2nd; + 2.24)
Lower (MC; - 1.11)
Spieth (1st; + 2.08)
Mitchell (T12; + 1.72)
Power (T9; + 1.91)
Kuchar (T6; + 2.84)
Smalley (MC; + 0.61)
Rose (T3; +1.67)
Gordon (T21; + 0.02)
Lipsky (T24; + 3.27)
SH Kim (Debut)
NeSmith (T11; + 1.85)
Ben Griffin (Debut)
N Taylor (1st; + 2.92)
Shelton (Debut)
Putnam (T6; + 1.97)
Dahmen (T6; + .10)
Lanto Griffin (T9; + 1.72)
Kodaira (T33; + 1.23)
Lashley (T5; + 1.37)
Sigg (T33; - .6)
Suh (MC; + 2.51)
Blair (T18; + 1.79)
Schmid (Debut)
Tarren (MC; - 1.02)
Cole (Debut)
Outright Betting Card, Weather & Course Rotation
Ahh the potential for materially impactful wind, but with a bunch of forecasts that paint a different picture. Excellent.
That is the reality this week as a couple different scenarios are shaping up in the varying forecast models.
Most forecasts point to steady winds on Sunday when everyone is at Pebble, which increases the value we are placing on ARG play in our selections. The tiny greens at Pebble are hard enough to hit when it’s calm so sustained Sunday winds point to a scrambling contest down the stretch.
Now the wave split calculation is obviously dependent on how things are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as players rotate through the three venues. The impact of wind is important here because Pebble and MPCC are highly exposed to coastal winds, while large portions of Spyglass Hill are protected by towering trees. So, theoretically you want to be able to post a score at calm Pebble or MPCC and deal with the windy day at Spyglass.
At this point, forecasts have a consensus view that Friday will be calm. Given the option I’d want to play Pebble that day and I used it as a tiebreaker on guys I couldn’t decide between.
Now the question is how strong will the winds on Thursday and Saturday be?
Some forecasts point to a highly windy Thursday. Some point to a slightly windy Thursday. Some point to a highly windy Saturday. Some point to a slightly windy Saturday.
This is something that will need to be tracked up until go time if it’s something you think is important in your selections.
I’ll leave that for you to track on your own, but I will say if only one day in the first three rounds is projected to have strong wind then I want to be at Spyglass Hill that day. So, if it’s just Thursday I’d lean players who start at Spyglass. If it’s just Saturday, I’d lean players who end at Spyglass.
Overall, it’s another pros and joes week on the odds board with three clear favorites (Fitz, Vik, Jordy) and then a bunch of guys at odds well below their normal range.
As always the question is where do you start your card, and this week is no different. Do you put all of your eggs in the favorite basket or do you spread more chips around the table?
Regular readers will know we tend to lean towards spreading out our chips, and we will do that again here. There are just so many variables in play this week that I can’t get anywhere near the conviction necessary to go all in at the top of the board. With more compelling plays in the midrange than we saw last week I will start there, and hope that strength in numbers can deliver us back-to-back cashes.
Here’s the squad:
Andrew Putnam 28/1
Putnam has been a Top 25 player on Tour over the last few months, and if he’s going to win it is going to be somewhere that his lack of output OTT doesn’t ruin his chances. He has that here at Pebble where he finished T6 last year despite hemorrhaging shots T2G but covering it up with his normally white hot flatstick. He comes back this year with the short game and iron play much sharper. The Washington native and California college grad who loves these greens just needs those aspects to continue to perform well to be a main threat here.
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Quite simply, Kuch looks like Kuch again. He arrives here positive in all strokes gained categories over the previous 20 rounds as a significant dip in form OTT appears to be behind him. A slow start at Sony derailed a bid for the title there but after a T7 finish he spoke about his confidence and that he feels his game is the best it has been in years. The stats back that up and he arrives at a venue where his lone liability - distance - won’t hold him back.
Leads the Tour in scrambling which will be key if the wind blows.
Nick Taylor 70/1
We’ve spoken at length about the course history component this week and the 2020 champion here of course fits the bill. He showed his affinity for this place again last year in a T14 finish and it makes sense that a University of Washington grad thrives in these conditions. He comes in with four Top 23 finishes on the season including a T7 a couple weeks ago at Sony and a T6 just down the road at the Fortinet. Looking to add his name to a long list of repeat champions at Pebble.
Beau Hossler 70/1
The California kid was 3rd here last year, and there may not be a more committed play to the sticky course history angle than this one. He doesn’t consistently play to the level of a 70/1 golfer but he’s as good as anyone in the field on and around the greens; ever more so on these familiar poa grasses. Has been driving it well of late, and secured the last spot on the card in a coin flip due to my belief he has the best draw.
David Lipsky 80/1
Another California native, Lipsky made his first hole in one as a kid on the 7th at Pebble,and shows up this week fresh off contention at the Sony. He is an elite T2G player who ranks 6th in that category over the last 20 rounds but struggles mightily at times on the greens. However, he’s familiar with these poa surfaces and it showed in a lights out putting performance during a debut T24 last year. His two DP World Tour wins came on comparable positional tracks, and two Top 10s on shorter courses already this season confirm this is the style of golf he prefers.
Brendon Todd 80/1
2nd in the model at 80/1 as he ranks 3rd in the field in Birdie or Better <125 Yards, 20th in Par 5 Birdie or Better, 21st in Birdie or Better Conversion, 5th in Accuracy, and Top 20 in each of SG P, SG ARG, and SG APP. All of that is a big statistical salad that says Brendon Todd does a lot of things really well that you need to do at Pebble to succeed. Checks the course history box with a couple previous Top 10s and a T16 last year. Already with two Top 10s on the season, and few courses will set up better for him to return to the winner’s circle.
Matthew NeSmith 100/1
Third in the field in approach over the last 20 rounds, and possesses a T11, T16 across three starts in this event. Normally NeSmith struggles with the putter but he’s found the Pebble surfaces to his liking having gained strokes putting in all three starts here. He played some of the best golf of his career in the fall with three straight Top 10s, but we get a huge discount because of two MCs to start the year.
However, those MCs weren’t by much and the statistical makeup he needs to succeed here (fairways plus elite approach play) were on display in both. Great bounce back spot at triple digit odds.
As always, best of luck!
