2023 Genesis Invitational
The Basics
Course: Riviera CC
Designers: Thomas / Bell
Yardage: 7,322
Par: 71 (4 Par 3s, 11 Par 4s, 3 Par 5s)
Greens: Poa
Recent Winners: 2022 Niemann (-19 | +5500), 2021 Homa (-12 | +5000), 2020 Scott (-11 | +3000), 2019 Holmes (-14 | +10000), 2018 Watson (-12 | +5000), 2017 Johnson (-17 | +800)
Key Stat: Every winner since 2005 was above Tour average in driving distance in the 25 rounds leading into their win.
Riviera CC
No rough. No water. No OB. Not much wind. Largely flat.
An opening Par 5 that you can hit iron, iron onto.
Yet, the transcripts here are filled with every type of player describing this Hollywood masterpiece as the toughest test on Tour. A challenge so fickle that it remains the only golfing summit on which Tiger Woods has not yet planted his flag. So, WTF is going on here?
You can of course just take Riv for what it is, simple. A rat can also dine on a fine slice of cheese assuming all is well for those final few seconds before the trap shuts its doors. And, a highly skilled chess player can dance around the board moving bishops and knights only to see the grandmaster soon extending their hand and flatly saying, “checkmate”. At Riv, the trap is constantly being set. Waiting, waiting, and then boom. Double bogey. Thanks for playing.
Because at Riv there is no shot that is thoughtless. For even the slightest miscalculation on where to leave an approach can turn a seemingly straightforward hole into a short game shot that has no chance of getting inside 25 feet. And, then you must hit that putt knowing if you run it by even a touch you’re faced with the most difficult greens inside five feet on the PGA Tour. Golf played out of position at Riv is a slow, and painful death.
It’s a test that has been conquered over the last decade by some of the game’s most powerful and preeminent shot makers.
Bubba Watson lifted the trophy here in ‘14, ‘16, and ‘18. He also wore a Green Jacket in 2012 and 2014. Few players in the history of the game have combined raw power with such exquisite artistry, and his success at both historic venues is arguably more useful as a guide this week than any deep dive into the stats will provide.
Dustin Johnson has come to Riv on 15 occasions resulting in a title and nine Top 10 finishes. He also has a Green Jacket in the closet. His power is elementary level knowledge for golf fans, but his strategic artistry is often lost in the ho-hum every man vibes that DJ portrays. He’s a true shot maker.
And, we could obviously expand on the Augusta / Riv connection with Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson. But, winning the Masters is by no means a requirement for success here and our goal is simply to describe the style of play that is needed to win at Riv. Joaquin Niemann’s historic beat down of the field here last year does just that.
Niemann is exceptionally long from the tee. But brute force isn’t the name of his game. His favorite course on Tour is Hilton Head because he loves the ability to shape the ball through the trees. Prior to his Genesis title he was best known for his skill set in the wind. High, low, left, right, all the shots. I regret not seeing it at the time, but he’s the perfect winner at Riv. Powerful. Artistic.
It’s rare we make it this far into a preview without having peeled back the statistical onion. And, we’ll of course take a look at some metrics very soon. But, you can’t really “Moneyball” Riv. The lack of penalty for hitting it in the rough, without question benefits power players. But, from there the statistical trends become a bit barren. Which of the power players is skilled enough in the artistic realm to place the ball correctly hole after hole after hole?
That’s where course history and comp course success are most useful.
Niemann broke an extended stretch of winners with a previous high finish at Riv, but it should be noted how well Niemann had performed around the greens in his three previous starts here (T44, MC, T43). He gained ARG in each of those previous starts which is important in the unique Kikuyu rough at Riv which is rarely seen on tour. A proven ability to handle the lies in the Kikuyu was a sign of things to come as he’d put up a career best ARG performance en route to the title.
The cross-over winner list flashes bomber paradises like Quail Hollow and Torrey which also features the tricky Poa surfaces found at Riv. But, shot shaper venues like East Lake and TPC River Highlands have also seen multiple cross-over champions.
Kapalua is a shot makers dream and Niemann lost in a 2021 playoff there. Max Homa just posted a T3 there. Adam Scott has four Top 10s. And, Dustin Johnson has destroyed the course with two victories alongside seven other Top 10s.
Largely though I think it’s a compelling sign when a big hitter has had success at any of the Tour’s shorter tracks. Places like Hilton Head, Colonial, Pebble (Poa), TPC Southwind, Innisbrook come to mind. An ability to perform well at these type of venues demonstrate the well rounded skill set to compliment the distance edge that power players have here.
Building our Model
The interesting element at Riv is that despite the challenge of the venue, most of the strong correlations involve birdie making. We’d normally anticipate something like bogey avoidance being the name of the game, but to some extent bogeys are unavoidable at Riv. You have to possess the firepower to counteract the mistakes that you’re almost certain to make here with birdies or better. Here’s how recent winners ranked in Birdie or Better % at Riv during their wins:
Niemann 1st
Homa 3rd
Scott 2nd
Holmes 2nd
Watson 1st
Johnson 1st
And, these winners came into the event ranked among the Tour’s best in at least one of Riv’s key approach buckets:
Niemann 8th 125-150
Homa 23rd 150-175
Scott 6th 125-150, 5th 150-175
Holmes 23rd 125-150
Watson 17th 175-200
Johnson 10th 125-150, 2nd 175-200
Overall, with stylistic aspects being so key to finding a winner at Riv it’s not among the easiest weeks to model. The model will serve as a guide this week, but we won’t be as committed to it as we might at other venues with more consistent correlations across the winners.
ShotLink Weights:
Par 5 Scoring (14%)
The three Par 5s at Riv are the clear scoring opportunities. Only JB Holmes has ranked outside the Top 20 on Tour in Par 5 scoring among winners arriving here since 2016.
Birdie or Better % 175-200 (11%)
I think you could really include any of the Birdie or Better buckets from 125-200 yards this week, but winners have shown a slightly higher correlation from this range so we give it the edge.
Birdie or Better Conversion % (11%)
For all the challenge at Riv, the winner has proven to be the player with enough fire power to overcome the nearly unavoidable mistakes that will pop up over 72 holes this week. Few stats demonstrate an ability to take advantage of opportunities when they develop more than BoB Conversion %.
Strokes Gained Weights:
PUTT (5%), ARG (9%), APP (18%), OTT (11%)
Pretty standard distribution for us when the short game aspects are so course specific. We’ll use the model to filter down the list of contenders and then look to their history on and around the greens at Riv to differentiate among the players with the ball striking skills to get into the mix.
Distance 11%
Course History 9%
Model Results & Some Notes
Follow this link to find the Genesis Invitational model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.
Rahm
Riv has been the land of the power faders, and Rahm is the king in that realm. T9, T17, T5, T21 in four starts here.
Rory
If the heavy rains over the last few months present a softer Riv, then this man will be the biggest beneficiary.
Finau
Scheffler
No real concern about a winner’s hangover as Scheffler followed up his Waste Management win last year with a T7 here.
Thomas
Highs and lows at Riv with T9, 2, Cut, Cut, 6 as his results since 2018. Difficult greens to overcome a now seven month slog with the putter.
Xander
Cantlay
The examples of players winning a marquee event off of a missed cut are few and far between. Cantlay does love this place, but the affinity hasn’t shown up often on these greens. As we said last week however, Cantlay at these prices is a profitable play in the long term. A fine risk to take.
Young
The long game is exactly where it was last year when he nearly won on debut. The putter is a different story. Can a career best putting performance last year on these greens serve as a spark? We just saw a similar result for Scheffler in Phoenix.
Homa
Everyone knows Homa’s capabilities here, and the number reflects that. A tough price to swallow, but he’s earned it.
Zalatoris
The approach play just hasn’t been of Zalatoris’ normal quality since returning from injury. Odd that he skipped Waste Management, so either he was targeting this start or still needs to protect the back. Hard to say.
Morikawa
Always liked this spot for Morikawa over Waste, but will need to bounce back quickly from such a shaky performance. He’s putted these greens well but the chipping is the bigger question.
Hovland
Did someone say chipping questions? T5, T4 in two starts here losing strokes around the greens in both. Seemed to be trending towards better ARG play in 2022, but has relapsed of late. The driving on the other hand is back to its best. One of his best shots at the marquee title he’s been hunting down since turning pro.
Im
Clark
It either makes all of the sense in the world or it’s going to be too good to be true. Finally displaying the approach play necessary to elevate into the next tier on Tour and has putted beautifully on these surfaces in his career. A perfect storm for a breakthrough week.
Burns
A great course for Burns, and appears to have shaken off a bit of swing trouble that popped up late in 2022. But as the market tends to do, the big prices available in recent weeks are gone. Won’t be sneaking up on anyone here.
Fleetwood
KH Lee
Tom Kim
Scott
W, 2, T69, T14, MC, T17, T10, T2, T11, T53, T7, W, T38, T4. Course horse. He only tries certain weeks of the year these days, and this is one of the spots. He just loves it.
Spieth
Vegas
Not sure where Vegas was for the back half of 2022 but he’s returned and been absolutely awesome T2G. Has the power to pick this place apart, but has struggled a ton on these surfaces in his career which limits the upside over 72 holes. Could pop for a round or two.
Rodgers
Fitzpatrick
Fowler
Looks a lot like Niemann coming in here last year. Solid play but without a strong finish at Riv. However, like Niemann he’s always been excellent out of the Kikuyu around these greens which creates the baseline for something special this week.
Mitchell
Bradley
It’s going to be cold and grey. Ball striking will be key. That is Keegan music.
Davis
Two months ago Davis would have been a legit threat in the mid range on the odds board here. He’s been awful in consecutive starts and fallen to nearly 200/1. Didn’t quite make the card but an excellent buy low spot on the powerful Aussie.
Power
Cink
Day
Jason gave us a nice little sweat last week at 75/1, but he’s never gained on the greens here in five starts. A worse number this week, and a lower likelihood of success. We’ll ride again soon enough.
Outright Betting Card
It will certainly be chilly in the hills above Santa Monica, but wind doesn’t seem likely to play much of a factor this week. Highs will barely touch the low 60s, but winds are unlikely to breach 10mph setting the stage for a fair fight among another star studded field.
As we’ve discussed up to this point, the qualitative nature of finding winners at Riv has opened the door to some bigger prices converting in what has been an increasingly impressive field in recent years. This year will be the deepest field in Genesis history, but almost all of the same big names were here last year when 60/1 Joaquin Niemann and 200/1 Cameron Young ran away and hid for all but the final few holes.
However, it’s fair to say that many of the mid level contenders here have moved onto LIV - I can assure you’d I’d have blown dollars on Mito here - and I’m hard pressed to see a winner outside the top ten or so names on the board. The live long-shots are going to be power players in the mold of Niemann or 100/1 JB Holmes in 2019 but in a battle of favorites vs “the field” you just can’t ignore the form, skill sets, and course history of the favorites this week. There will certainly be a Nick Taylor esque performance from someone here, but finding a winner seems to be a question of how to play the top of the board.
Unfortunately, the books seem to have the same mindset and have released odds with a very high hold. They are just not going to get beat by any of the top contenders, and due to that we are forced into building a very small card. That’s fine of course, but there isn’t much margin of error this week. Either our big names are going to mix it up or we’re toast.
But, all that said, I do have a sense of confidence that all three of our main picks this week will be winners at Riv at some point in their careers. Now we just need the golf gods to deliver the bounces for it to happen for one of them this week. Let’s take a look:
Xander Schauffele 19/1
Five career starts at Riviera and he’s never finished worse than T23. Importantly, he’s gained on the greens in four of those five appearances which is a distinct advantage against most of the field this week. All systems appear go once again after the WD at Sentry, as he’s gone T3, T13, T10 since and was in the lead at Waste Management late into the back nine on Saturday. A poor decision out of a green-side bunker was a major set back to his chance there, but statistically it was another immense performance as he led the field in both GIR % and Fairway Prox. Coming to a place where controlling your golf ball is far and away the biggest key, he just proved out his ability to best an elite field in that department.
And, have to love the places Xander has won in his career and how they cross-over with winners here. He shares a Greenbrier win with Niemann. East Lake wins with DJ, Mickelson, Haas, and Scott. Kapalua victories with DJ and Stricker. Sheshan titles with Bubba and DJ. As well as last year’s Travelers where DJ has won, and Bubba lifted three trophies. Add in Xander’s proficiency at Augusta, and I have zero doubt he will pocket a trophy or two at Riv in his career.
Tony Finau 20/1
The machine like efficiency for Finau continues with another solid performance last week. He’s a Top 5 player in the field T2G over pretty much any time period, and his two career runner up finishes at Riv tell the story of his affinity for this place. Quite simply, few players in the game possess the combination of power and finesse that Finau does. He’s just the prototypical type of player that wins around this place.
He’s gained on the greens at Riv in 11 of his last 20 rounds which is a lot more than most player’s can say on these challenging surfaces, and he putts with some of the best speed on Tour from longer ranges which is key this week. The way his ball striking sets up here it will only require a slight gain on the greens to win. He’ll miss some shorties, but everyone will this week. I trust he’ll more than make up for it with his efficiency from longer ranges and gain on the greens as he has in 15 of his last 20 starts overall.
Jordan Spieth 40/1
The game’s ultimate maestro will always be a threat around this place, and he shows up this year off an impressive performance in Phoenix where he was 3rd T2G while displaying real power from the tee. He’s been on a gradual increase in the distance department for the better part of three years now which may be the final puzzle piece needed to find glory at Riv. He’s almost always gained on the field with his short game (putting + around the green) at this event, and now is on much more even footing with the driver.
In just his last 25 starts he’s posted quality results on strategic layouts with a win at Hilton Head, a 2nd at Pebble, and a T7 at Colonial. There’s comp wins further back at TPC River Highlands, Augusta, Kapalua, and East Lake. It’s a Jordy course, and last week was a near career best iron play performance. Easy click at 40/1.
Kurt Kitayama 180/1
When the penalty for wayward driving is low, my views on Kitayama are high. And, he fits the billing of some of the powerful longshot contenders that have threatened here in recent years.
Renaissance Club and Vidanta join Riv among the five least penalizing courses for missed fairways on Tour. Kitayama finished 2nd at both of them. He also finished 2nd at Congaree where the fairways are so wide that it’s almost impossible to miss them. Effectively, when Kitayama can hit his approach shots from relatively equal footing to the rest of the field he can contend.
11th in the field ARG over the last 50 rounds, and his best putting performances are highly correlated with his best iron performances which all have come at the venues described above. Struggled in the final group at Pebble, but was nice to see the California native in the mix on home soil. Hopefully it translates here as well and arrives off a 2nd place showing in Birdie or Better % at Waste.
As always, best of luck!
