The Basics

Course: Bay Hill

Designers: Wilson / Lee

Yardage: 7,466

Par: 72 (4 Par 3s, 10 Par 4s, 4 Par 5s)

Greens: Bermuda

Key Stat: Every winner since 2000 has a previous made cut at Bay Hill.

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Stats / Scorecard / Winner Profile / Quotes / Weather

Bay Hill

It’s here that the impact of the PGA Tour’s move to a schedule of elevated events will be truly felt for the first time. The WM Phoenix Open is not a story of golf but rather one of revelry and the Genesis Invitational has featured elite fields repeatedly in recent years. But, Bay Hill and it’s notoriously difficult test has steadily scared away the game’s best players over the years as many opted out of the scheduled beat down ahead of significant events to come in the spring.

But, there is no where to hide any more as the purse at Bay Hill has become so lucrative that even the like’s of Patrick Cantlay have decided to forgo their distaste for all things Florida golf to play this week. With that, a truly major feel is in place as extremely challenging conditions are on display for a field of the very best the PGA Tour currently has to offer.

And, frankly there isn’t much that could be written about Bay Hill that isn’t extremely obvious to even the most casual of golf observers. The search for a winner is narrowed down by two rather mundane questions:

Has this player played relatively well at Bay Hill before?

Every winner since at least 2000 - I got tired of looking any further back than that - has made the cut at Bay Hill previously and all but a tiny fraction of those players had Top 20 finishes ahed of their wins. Most of the key contenders check this box, but it’s still a critical aspect when you consider how many players are playing here for only the first or second time.

Is this player elite tee to green?

The API has always been tough, but the last three years are really when the event has committed itself to creating a torture chamber of rock hard, glass like greens and impenetrable Bermuda rough. Prior to this, the event was tough and elite ball-strikers - Tiger Woods being the most obvious - were regular winners. But, since 2020 the tee to green threshold to win here has entered a level at or beyond that of a major championship. A quick look at the previous 25 rounds of the the last three winners here tells the story.

Tyrrell Hatton was gaining +1.3 strokes on approach per round alongside +0.3 strokes from the tee. And, although Hatton was level around the greens - gaining zero strokes per round - he has always been one of the game’s elite short game players. With only Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm gaining over +1.3 on approach over the last 25 rounds this week, it’s clear the level of ball striking Hatton was bringing into that performance.

2021 saw recently crowned US Open Champion, Bryson DeChambeau, eviscerate poor old Bay Hill in a similar fashion to what he did to Winged Foot. He arrived gaining over a stroke per round from the tee but it’s important to remember this wasn’t just the long drive showman we know of today. He complimented his otherworldly driving with +0.4 strokes per round on approach and +0.4 strokes around the greens over the 25 rounds leading into his win here. That week at Bay Hill he’d gain a whopping +11.5 strokes ball striking to lift the trophy.

And, of course, last year saw Scottie Scheffler on his continued ascendence towards his Masters title as he out dueled a litany of contenders down the stretch on greens so fast they almost looked white. He came into the event gaining +1.4 strokes tee to green, and had a previous major track record that pointed to forthcoming success in these type of conditions having finished T18, T8, T7, T8 in the 2021 major year.

That major success would culminate in a Masters title a month later, which now sees five of the last seven winners at Bay Hill also with a major in the trophy case. And, a look at the major finishes in the run up to the wins of each of the recent winners is the most powerful note I could end this section with.

Here’s the previous two major starts before winning at Bay Hill for the last seven API champs:

Scheffler - T7, T8

DeChambeau - W, T34

Hatton - T21, T6

Molinari - W, T6

McIlroy - T4, T22

Leishman - T53, T60

Day - T4, W

That’s three winners coming off of a major title, and six of seven with a Top 8 finish in one of their previous two major starts. Leishman is the holdout here, but it’s worth noting he was just a year removed from losing in a playoff at St Andrews.

Building our Model

This is a true don’t overthink it situation. The model had Scottie as #1 here last year, as its focus on ball striking, Par 5 scoring, and Birdie Bogey Ratio elevated the correct set of players.

We see the support for those metrics in the correlations, and of course, if it’s not broke there isn’t much of a reason to fix it. So, largely the model is quite similar to last year and here’s how it shapes up this year.

ShotLink Weights:

Birdie Bogey Ratio (17%)

The last three winners on Tour were Top 10 on Tour in this department, and the last six were all inside the Top 40 on Tour. It’s a quite simple metric that is always going to give you a list of the most in form golfers ready to take on a more challenging test than the birdie fests often on display on Tour.

Par 5 Scoring (15%)

Bay Hill serves up challenges at every turn, but the Par 5s are a clear opportunity to take steps forward. Five of the last six winners here were Top 20 on Tour in Par 5 scoring, and the history of winners here is filled with those who did the majority of their damage on the Par 5s.

Proximity 175-200 Yards (9%)

Bay Hill is well known for the number of long iron shots required, but we’ve started to see the impact of firmer fairways and the ever increasing distance on Tour in recent renditions. Last year saw the fewest number of shots beyond 200 yards in event history, and we ultimately see a higher correlation among winners in this bucket as well.

Strokes Gained Weights:

PUTT (6%), ARG (11%), APP (19%), OTT (15%)

We’re on the hunt for tee to green expertise and this is really just a weighted tee to green calculation with ARG elevated slightly higher than it normally would be and OTT slightly lower.

Every winner since 2017 was flat or gaining strokes ARG over the 25 rounds leading into their title, and it’s of note how few strokes winners have gained from the tee here on average. DeChambeau and McIlroy demonstrated a unique ability to score from the tee with their world class driving, but Scheffler actually lost strokes OTT here last year which is more in line with historical trends where only 18% of strokes at Bay Hill for winners have come from the tee. Ultimately, putting is a big part of the Bay Hill story as scrambling becomes crucial in these difficult conditions but previous success putting on Bermuda and specifically at Bay Hill is more valuable than the recent data we have which is Poa heavy.

Course History 9%

Model Results & Some Notes

Follow this link to find the API model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.

For this week’s notes we’ve listed off a players finish in their last two majors. Players highlighted fit the “rules” of a made cut at Bay Hill previously and a made cut in both of their last two major starts which applies to the last seven winners here. Bolded players fit the additional “rule” of a Top 7 finish in one of their last two major starts which applies to six of the last seven winners.

Rahm (T12, T34)
Scheffler (T2, T21)
McIlroy (T5, 3)
Finau (Cut, T28)
Xander (T14, T15)
Collin (T5, Cut)
Zalatoris (T2, T28)
Cantlay (T14, T8)
Im (Cut, T81)
Homa (T47, Cut)
Mitchell (T34, Cut)
Day (Cut, T55)
Thomas (T37, T53)
Fleetwood (Cut, T4)
Conners (Cut, T28)
Hovland (Cut, T4)
Young (Cut, 2)
Tom Kim (23, T47)
Fitzpatrick (W, T21)
Hadwin (T71, T7)
Hoge (Cut, Cut)
Smalley (Cut)
Hatton (T56, T11)
KH Lee (T37, Cut)
Spieth (T37, T8)
Fowler (T53, T23)
Bradley (T7, Cut)
Kirk (T5, T42)
Harman (T43, T6)
Scott (T14, T15)

API Betting Card & Weather

The story of the prep for this event has been the weather and the below photo should explain why.

Heavy winds on Friday afternoon are set to hammer the already difficult Bay Hill layout, and due to that there is a high probability of an advantage for the PM/AM wave.

Over the last year it has become clear however that wave splits are extraordinarily difficult to nail down. Delays to play and last second flips have occurred - most notably at the Players Championship - and it would be naive to feel like anything on this front is certain. However, we deal in probabilities here and in that sense I feel there is an 80% chance for a half shot to full shot advantage for the PM/AM wave. I don’t think it will be life or death for the winner of the event as we’ve seen plenty of champions come from the wrong side of draws, but given the need to tiebreak between players I think the PM/AM selection would be the logical move.

If anything, the heavy winds have been shifting ever later on Friday and with that the chance for a material wave advantage has steadily increased.

That said, I came into the week strongly believing that Scottie Scheffler is set to repeat here and I still think he has a great chance. At 10/1 however - a number we rarely ever bet - I couldn’t pull the trigger knowing he will likely face the worst of the conditions. He is plenty skilled to overcome them but I’d need the perfect, flawless scenario to swim in the 10/1 end of the pool.

History tells us though that the top of the board is where the winners lie at Bay Hill, and everything we’ve written up to this point should explain that. It’s not difficult to understand what the skill set to win here is, and it’s also not difficult to find the players that match the criteria. When everyone knows the game plan we end up with an odds board that reflects that. It’s never rocket science, and ever more so in weeks like this. But, even on weeks like this there are of course more options than spots on a disciplined card.

It must be said that the odds are a bit more generous than they were at Genesis with only Rahm, Scheffler, and Rory below 20/1. This could certainly just be an obvious choreograph by the books that no one else has a chance. And in events where at least two of those three tee it up on Tour, one of them has won every event since the Tour Championship. But we enjoy pain, so we’ll chase the bait nonetheless.

The last two times we’ve seen conditions this windy at Bay Hill (2022 and 2020) the winners fell at 20/1 and 50/1. So, there’s your bit of confirmation bias if you’re joining me in taking on the new Big 3.

With that, here is the card:

Collin Morikawa 21/1

It’s all right in front of you with Collin. He easily checks the ball striking and major pedigree boxes. He doesn’t easily check the short game and extremely difficult conditions boxes. So, let’s spend our time looking at those deficiencies.

The last time Collin played at Bay Hill was the legendarily difficult 2020 event where only four players finished under par. Who led the field that week in ball striking? Collin by an entire shot per round over the field en route to a T9 finish. With his current ball striking form - 4th in the field - and proven ability in these exact conditions at Bay Hill I trust his bread and butter will show up this week.

Now can he gain the stroke per round with his short game to get over the line?

Four of his five best ARG performances in 2022 came at Augusta, Brookline, Sawgrass, and Southern Hills. His ability with his iron play to create better leaves than the field allows his short game to elevate in these type of events, and he comes here off of a near career best effort at Riv.

And, Bay Hill has been a place that below average putters have benefited. We wrote last year extensively about how the speed of the greens allows great ball strikers to find more uphill, make-able putts on these surfaces and three of the previous five winners were worse putters over their last 25 rounds than Morikawa arrives this week. He’s won on Bermuda in Florida at Concession, and we'll hop on the Morikawa putter lottery here.

Xander Schauffele 24/1

A much shorter write up required for Schauffele who leads this field on approach over the last 25 rounds, and gained over six strokes on these greens in his lone start here in 2020.

As proven as they come in difficult conditions with a win at seven under par at last summer’s Scottish Open, and a myriad of high major finishes. One of those coming as a runner-up to Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie. And, remarkably he’s never finished outside the Top 14 at the US Open. The ideal skill set for what will be required this week, and nice to see the T24 in his debut here during the difficult 2020 rendition.

Has been a Top 5 player in the world statistically now for the better part of six months, and health concerns continue to look less and less material.

Jordan Spieth 50/1

The approach play continues to look like it’s turned a corner as he’s gained over +1.4 strokes in six consecutive rounds. And, in the difficult driving conditions at majors Spieth has demonstrated an ability to dial in the big stick having gained OTT in seven consecutive major starts. He’s also gained ARG in seven straight major starts, and despite all of the volatility in his long game he remains one of the most reliable players T2G when conditions get firm and fast. Which was again on display in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, where he was 3rd in the field T2G.

Of course, the question is the putter and only a fool would make any promises there. However, he gained on these greens in his lone start here (a T4) and was positive in both Bermuda starts in Hawaii. Players struggling on short putts are going to look awful on tricky Poa, and we’ll hope a return to smoother surfaces brings out the steady putting we saw at the CJ Cup and in Hawaii.

Rickie Fowler 80/1

The work with Butch is clearly paying off as Fowler ranks 3rd in the field on approach over the last 20 rounds. That led to three straight Top 20 finishes out west, and now he comes home to Florida where he’s lifted titles at Sawgrass and PGA National. Ten of 11 made cuts at this always tricky event speaks further to his affinity for golf in this part of the country, and three Top 6 finishes at the Open demonstrate a strong ability to perform in the wind.

A return to the winners circle is coming - if Butch says it, I believe it - and I’m not sure the quality of the event will be the difference maker. As likely here at 80 as he’ll soon be in lesser events at 30.

Adam Hadwin 140/1

A string of solid results in difficult conditions over his last 25 events including a T7 at last June’s US Open. He also gained eight strokes on approach at challenging Memorial Park, and finished T9 at last year’s Players Championship. Popped up again on the big stage in Phoenix, and has had plenty of success in the state of Florida. His lone PGA Tour win came at Innisbrook in Tampa, and he followed that up with a T6 finish here at Bay Hill.

His work with Mark Blackburn - of Max Homa fame - continues to pay dividends. At 140/1 he’s the most likely of the extreme long-shots in my opinion.

Puerto Rico Open

This is the worst event I’ve ever handicapped, and that’s coming from someone who covers every event on the DP World Tour. It is truly miserable, and there really isn’t much to say about it. Bomb and gouge players have had plenty of success here but there’s winners of all variety and in a field this devoid of consistent talent literally anything can happen.

I’m limiting myself to just two sentences on each player I’ve selected, and if you’re looking for loads of detail on this event I advise you to save yourself the time. Throw all the names into a hat and draw out six to seven. I’ve gone with mainly big hitters with the hopes that one can find the flatstick and produce just enough on approach to clip this field.

If you want a model here you go.

Samuel Stevens 28/1

Has gained off the tee in seven consecutive PGA Tour starts, including gaining over a stroke per round last week at PGA National. Tied for 13th at Torrey.

Matthias Schmid 55/1

One of the longest hitters in the world of golf, and has shown an ability to perform well in these low scoring PGA Tour events with a T6 at the AmEx and T8 at Barbasol. Bomb it and putt it has been the most consistent strategy for success here, and Schmid is among the handful most capable of executing that this week.

Vincent Norrman 55/1

Looking to follow in the footsteps of a talented young Nordic player by the name of Hovland who triumphed here for his breakthrough. Norrman isn’t of that quality but has the T2G game to find a lower level Tour win if the putter heats up, which becomes much more likely on these friendly Paspalum surfaces.

Augusto Nunez 60/1

Has made three consecutive PGA Tour cuts which is certainly more than a lot of players in this field can say. Won the Tour Championship on the PGA Lat Am Tour in 2019, which should point to a familiarity with these conditions.

Trevor Cone 125/1

Another player that absolutely mashes the ball from the tee, and has proven the ability to pick up a title on the KFT. This is almost worse than a KFT event so we’ll take any winning pedigree at this level in the triple digits.

Trevor Weryblo 125/1

Of all of these guys, here is one we might actually bet again as the 24 year old won quickly on the KFT and has delivered four straight made cuts on Tour. Extremely skilled putter with the distance to contend here.

Martin Trainer 140/1

A past champion at this event in the triple digits who just was somewhat in the mix at Pebble?? Give me Marty Trains! Allez! Allez! Allez!

As always, best of luck!

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational & Puerto Rico Open