2023 American Express
La Quinta Country Club
The Basics
Courses: Dye Stadium | Nicklaus Tournament | La Quinta CC
Designers: Dye | Nicklaus | Hughes
Yardages: 7200 | 7150 | 7050
Pars: All 72
Greens: Bermuda-ish
Recent Winners: 2022 Swafford (-23 | +25000), 2021 Kim (-23 | +6000), 2020 Landry (-26 | +20000), 2019 Long (-26 | +25000), 2018 Rahm (-22 | +800), 2017 Swafford (-20 | +5000)
Key Stat: Every winner since 2015 has ranked Top 60 on Tour in Total Driving.
The American Express
Back to the scene of Hudson Swafford’s 250/1 triumph for us last January, and when a player like Swafford claims two titles at the same event in the span of six years they often serve as an excellent case study for the skills you do (and don’t) need to win at a venue.
Now at the American Express it’s actually the plural - venues - as the tournament features a three course rota. But, the use of a case study becomes even more valuable considering the limited data we have on two of the courses - Nicklaus Tournament and La Quinta CC. Understanding the abilities of the players who have performed well in this event paint the clearest picture of what is needed across the rota of courses, and Swafford is the poster child for success here in the Coachella Valley.
And, thanks to the good folks at DataGolf it’s very easy to see what Swafford has been in his career - a regularly solid ball striker with a pretty dreadful short-game.
By itself this sets a pretty clear idea for what we’re on the hunt for this week - ball strikers - but taking a look at the rest of the winners since 2016 solidifies it. Here is how each winner outside of Swafford faired in Ball Striking (OTT + APP) and Short Game (ARG + PUTT) in the 25 rounds leading into their victories.
2021 Si Woo: +0.8 Ball Striking; +0.4 Short Game
2020 Landry: +0.2 Ball Striking; -0.5 Short Game
2019 Long: +0.5 Ball Striking; -0.7 Short Game
2018 Rahm: +1.8 Ball Striking; +0.5 Short Game
2016 Dufner: +1.0 Ball Striking; -0.7 Short Game
Despite Jon Rahm’s tantrum that it is a “POS putting contest” the facts speak to a birdie fest much more reliant on ball striking than other low scoring events on the calendar.
A quick aside to note that Rahm also claimed St Andrews was going to be the most difficult it has ever played last July before the course was destroyed for some of the lowest Open scoring on record.
But, anyway back to the numbers to confirm the ball striking angle.
47% of strokes gained for winners since 2017 have come from approach play which is among the highest on Tour and comps with courses like Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, PGA National, TPC Potomac and TPC Southwind. The scoring here is low but the ball striking threshold is closer to that of more difficult scoring conditions.
Now, why is that?
At the American Express we get three courses with greens and fairways in absolutely mint condition. The quotes from players about the quality of the maintenance at these venues are among some of the most raving reviews you’ll ever hear from a professional golfer. Add in a forecast of picture perfect weather much of the time - especially this week - and you have golf being played effectively in a dome - aka driving range golf. Here’s Cantlay on the topic a couple weeks ago:
And then in a couple weeks time when we go to Palm Springs that would be the dramatic example of the other way where you can pretty much hit stock shots on every single shot and if you get a day where it's not blowing at all, it's like driving range golf.
This gives a distinct edge to the most consistent ball strikers who can hit stock shot, after stock shot, and generate much better proximity on average over 72 holes. They even get an extra day to make up for any early errors with the cut being after 54 holes which gives the cream ball strikers time to rise to the top.
With some of the purest surfaces on Tour this proximity advantage is also a huge putting advantage which isn’t always the case.
On average the 189th best putter on Tour from 10-15’ makes it from that range 22% of the time. The 2nd best putter on Tour from 20-25’ makes it 22% of the time. If you take the field to Golf Galaxy and put them on the putting green these are the averages that will play out over time.
At the American Express the greens are as pure as a fake putting green. The pin positions are also usually some of the easiest on the green due to the pro-am component of the event. Give yourself a regular proximity advantage on these courses and you’re going to roll them in at a higher rate than the field.
The reason this doesn’t ring true every week is because lots of the time you’re playing to difficult pins with big breaking putts from 10-15’ feet or on imperfect surfaces. This leads a proximity advantage to not consistently correlate with a huge putting advantage every week. Here that is certainly not the case, and it’s the main reason why great ball strikers have had some of their best birdie fest results at this event.
Building our Model
Everything we just said about the proximity and putting correlation here also rings true with driving and approach. In driving range conditions the further and straighter you drive the ball is going to yield better proximity over 72 holes. It’s obvious, but the closer you are to the hole for your approach the closer you are going to hit your approach on average. Driving it long and straight at the American Express will give you shorter approaches, which will give you better proximity, and thus better scores. It’s textbook stuff and the dome golf we see here allows the textbook story to play out in a way it normally doesn’t.
We see this clearly in the correlations and we also see how strongly performances on varying “hole scoring” ranges is here. That again is the result of the dome conditions as players can perform closer to their averages on certain hole lengths as fewer variables are in play this week.
It becomes a pretty straightforward model to build - as it was last year - and we’re not going to change much from what we did in 2022. As they say, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”.
Largest ShotLink Weights:
Total Driving (21%)
Every winner here since 2015 has ranked Top 60 on Tour in Total Driving which combines your accuracy rank with your distance rank. Very similar to SG OTT but not as heavily impacted by distance which points better to the balance needed to succeed at a venue like this. Swafford for example ranked 3rd in this category on Tour coming into this event but 98th in SG OTT on Tour.
Birdie or Better % (18%)
Everything we’ve talked about here on how this birdie fest occurs doesn’t alter the fact that it is a birdie fest. You have to show an ability to take it deep, and it doesn’t get much more clear if you can do that than your Birdie or Better %.
Strokes Gained Weights:
PUTT (8%), ARG (3%), APP (18%), OTT (15%)
Don’t think much needs to be said here about how we’re weighting things. It is a best attempt to mirror the skill sets we’ve described are necessary in this preview. We want big time ball strikers rising up the model. This combination should do just that.
Model Results & Some Notes
Follow this link to find the American Express model, download the data to edit your own weights, view historical model results and more.
Cantlay
A 3rd model #1 for Patty Ice who has finished 4th as model #1 on both previous occasions.
Finau
Finished 4th here in 2021 and is a much more proven winner since then, a great fit all around.
Rahm
His last nine starts globally - T5, T8, T15, T2, W, T4, W, T8, W.
Scheffler
Finally gained on the greens again at Sentry, and the ideal place for the elite ball striker to get back into the winners circle.
Im
Easy to forgive the Sony performance where he’s been inconsistent in his career, and he arrives at a place he’s never been worse than 12th in four starts.
Zalatoris
Any concerns over rust were quickly erased in a T11 debut at Sentry, and his T6 finish here last year is evident of the benefit he gets from elite ball striking at this event.
KH Lee
Hoge
The torrid stretch of ball striking continues having not lost strokes ball striking in six months.
Young
Was 350/1 here last year! Now is a proven presence and drives it at the most elite tier in the game. Shook off the rust at Sentry and will be relishing this spot.
Cam Davis
Had to be close to a Tour record for three putts last week, but has putted well here in all three starts and the ball striking looked immense at Sony.
Si Woo Kim
Has missed the cut after every win in his PGA Tour career, but this is a place he’s won before so maybe the vibes will be different.
Schauffele
Beware the injured golfer at an incredibly fair price.
Grillo
Harman
Wise
Tom Kim
Has bounced back nicely from missed cuts across a myriad of tours early in his career, and the price is back in line with reality this week.
Tarren
Yu
Burns
Too talented of a player to have such a severe dip in ball striking form. It’s been ugly of late but two Top 20 finishes in three starts at the American Express could be an ideal place to get the show back on the road for the proven winner.
Gordon
Montgomery
Hadwin
The ultimate horse course has made all seven cuts here in his career with four Top 6 finishes.
Hodges
D Thompson
Has displayed a similar quality of driving that surprise contenders Paul Barjon and Lee Hodges showed coming in here last year.
Mitchell
Yuan
B Taylor
Smalley
Similar profile to that of Hayden Buckley who truly challenged for a first title last week, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Smalley do the same this week.
Vegas
A first start for Vegas since August comes at the site of his 2011 victory.
SH Kim
Outright Betting Card
Debate will rage this week over the history of long-shot winners here and whether an increased number of big names this week will be a difference maker. It of course can be as big name, elite players are capable of winning every time they tee it up and obviously they are favorites for a reason. But, it’s worth noting the field here last year featured many of these same big names and none of them were in contention down the stretch.
At a venue like this where putting and around the green play have proven to be of little guidance into who is going to perform well the door is simply open for more players who may not have the well rounded games to be regularly top players.
Add in the quirky nature of this event across three courses and the recipe for long-shot winners has less to do with field quality in my opinion, and a lot more to do with this specific event. If the next few years see more and more low priced winners here then we can adapt the strategy, but I’d rather trust the history than guess at the impact of a few more highly ranked players being in the field this week.
With that said we’ll start the card a bit higher - with an elite player at a discount - and still leave room for some long-shots who can strike it well enough to contend here. Our luck might have all been used last year to get Hudson home, or maybe the Coachella Valley has a bit more magic in store for us this week. Time will tell!
Will Zalatoris 22/1
If Zalatoris is going to win a low scoring event it will be this one as it fits perfectly into the ball striking expertise his game is built around. And we saw it clearly last year when he fired a course record 61 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and probably would have won the event if he took better advantage of the easier La Quinta CC.
The statistical makeup of how you gain strokes to win here is very similar to that of TPC Southwind where Zalatoris got his breakthrough victory and he’ll likely be heavily bet next week at Torrey. But, Torrey is tied for the most crossover winners of any course for winners at the AmEx in the last decade, and I’d rather just hop on this week at a discounted price against the other “elite players” in this field.
Brian Harman 40/1
Harman was steamed down to 16/1 last week but his career record is much better around this place. The amount of money that came in on Harman was somewhat reasonable last week when you factor in how consistent the ball striking has been and his affinity for Bermuda. But, it would have made a lot more sense for the hammer to come down on him here where he’s been inside the Top 25 in six of his last seven starts.
That misread by the betting public has played into our hands with a much more fair price here on one of his favorite venues. Course history plus excellent form is always the best recipe in the book and few in the field match it better this week than the lefty.
Tom Hoge 45/1
I’d banished Hoge to the “do-not-bet” list but I’m not strong enough to stick to it this week. It just makes too much sense.
The approach play has been absolutely immense for almost a year now, and the only thing that has kept him out of the winner’s circle since Pebble is a rotten short game. But the game plan here in building a card is ball striking, and we don’t really care about players with short game issues. The dictionary definition of that player this week is Hoge, and then we add in that he was 2nd here last year. I’ll probably regret freeing him from banishment but I’d feel too stupid if I missed this one.
KH Lee 60/1
Drive it well and make a bunch of birdies is KH’s music.
We said the same last week and he played reasonably well but the putter never quite got going to the level that was necessary to lift the trophy. He comes to Palm Springs having gained strokes on the greens here in all four starts, and his affinity for TPC courses (these aren’t TPC but might as well be) has given him the nickname TPC Lee for a reason.
There is nothing worse in betting than being a week early on a guy, and that seems like it may have been the case with our bet on KH last week. So, we go again.
Ben Taylor 200/1
I really don’t understand how this guy is still a 200/1 golfer. He’s gone 3-T21-T4 in his last three starts on varying styles of golf courses and the stat lines are impressive.
He’s gained at least three quarters of a stroke ball striking on average across each of the three starts and the putter has shown serious upside as well. It’s exactly what we’d be looking for at this place, and he has the benefit of having played here twice. Those were both missed cuts but he’s a different player now and has rounds in contention under his belt at this level as of late.
Lee Hodges 200/1
A pretty straightforward play off of the T3 finish here last year, and an overall steady rookie year on the PGA Tour. Similar story to that of Hayden Buckley last week where he’s displayed the ball striking ability to win and performed well at this venue. 200/1 at a place where long-shots have converted at a nearly unprecedented clip is more than fair.
Kevin Yu 250/1
The Arizona State grad has shown up on Tour this year as one of the best drivers in the game. He’s 3rd in this field in SG OTT, and has only lost strokes from the tee in one round so far on Tour. That’s the foundation on which you build a very long and prosperous PGA Tour career which he seems destined for with a T19, T3, and T21 already in his pocket on the season. Played plenty of golf in these conditions in his collegiate days and ranks 12th in the field in Birdie or Better %.
Carl Yuan 250/1
For how well Kevin Yu has driven it since graduating from the KFT it is actually Carl Yuan who has been the best ball striker among the graduates. He ranks 13th in the field this week in that department. The short game has not been good enough to compete at the top end of Tour leaderboards so far, but at this point of the preview you should know we don’t fancy that as much of an issue this week. He’s almost certainly going to make noise at this level, and is another Pac 12 graduate who will have played plenty of golf in the area.
As always, best of luck!
